The Star Power of the 1995 Orioles

[Moose Milligan]

14 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'm a huge Hall guy, so I'm fine with Moyer going in.  Along with about 84 other guys I could construct convoluted cases for.

And I hate to say this, but maybe Moyer had some help.  It's was the 90s after all.  Most of the guys popped for PEDs were pitchers and one of the characteristics of steroids is arresting or reversing age-related decline.  Or maybe he was doctoring the ball.  On Bill James' site he's strongly hinted that Nolan Ryan was doctoring the ball starting in his late 30s or so, probably about the time his K rate spiked from 8 to 11.  I wouldn't really hold it against him, and I have ZERO proof, but being that much of an outlier provokes suspicion.

The counter argument is that he wasn't that much better.  His best ERA+ through 32 was 130.  His best afterwards was 132.  He just was more consistently good, and for a unnaturally long time.

I think a huge Hall is more fun, for sure.  And being consistently good for an unnaturally long time deserves reward.

Maybe he did have some help, but you tend to think that the guys who were power pitchers that lasted long (Clemens) were the ones who had help.  Moyer was a soft tosser.  Maddux didn't throw that hard.  Those guys could have had PED help but they're not likely suspects.  They would be more suspects of scuffing the ball, for sure.  Moyer didn't really arrest or reverse his age decline, he just...lasted a long time and figured it out.  I don't know what velocity he was throwing his fastball at when he retired...what, 80 mph?

I'd not heard about the possibility of Nolan Ryan doctoring the ball.  But his K rate came close to hitting 11 a few times in the 70s, then dipped in the 80s.  It popped up from 9.8 to 11.5 between 1986 and 1987.  I'm not sure if that jump correlates to the league average or not.  '87, of course was the year of the rabbit ball, and in knowing that maybe more players were swinging for the fences and striking out more?  So if the league struck out 1.7 more times a game, Ryan's K rate isn't that big of a jump.  But that league wide rise in K rate from one year to the next is unlikely.

I know you know this but his teammate at the time was Mike Scott, who was a notorious ball scuffer so it's certainly possible he could have picked up a thing or two from him.  Mike Scott had a terrible start to his career and found Roger Craig and the split finger fastball and learned how to scuff.  It was essential for his MLB survival...and then to thrive for a few years.  Nolan Ryan, trying to extend his career, learned how to scuff.  I can see that.  

[DrungoHazewood]

12 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think a huge Hall is more fun, for sure.  And being consistently good for an unnaturally long time deserves reward.

Maybe he did have some help, but you tend to think that the guys who were power pitchers that lasted long (Clemens) were the ones who had help.  Moyer was a soft tosser.  Maddux didn't throw that hard.  Those guys could have had PED help but they're not likely suspects.  They would be more suspects of scuffing the ball, for sure.  Moyer didn't really arrest or reverse his age decline, he just...lasted a long time and figured it out.  I don't know what velocity he was throwing his fastball at when he retired...what, 80 mph?

I'd not heard about the possibility of Nolan Ryan doctoring the ball.  But his K rate came close to hitting 11 a few times in the 70s, then dipped in the 80s.  It popped up from 9.8 to 11.5 between 1986 and 1987.  I'm not sure if that jump correlates to the league average or not.  '87, of course was the year of the rabbit ball, and in knowing that maybe more players were swinging for the fences and striking out more?  So if the league struck out 1.7 more times a game, Ryan's K rate isn't that big of a jump.  But that's rise in K rate from one year to the next is unlikely.

I know you know this but his teammate at the time was Mike Scott, who was a notorious ball scuffer so it's certainly possible he could have picked up a thing or two from him.  Mike Scott had a terrible start to his career and found Roger Craig and the split finger fastball and learned how to scuff.  It was essential for his MLB survival...and then to thrive for a few years.  Nolan Ryan, trying to extend his career, learned how to scuff.  I can see that.  

Ryan's strikeout rates as a percentage of league:

Year	Ryan	Age	League	Percentage
1968	8.9	21	5.89	1.51
1969	9.3	22	5.77	1.61
1970	8.5	23	5.75	1.48
1971	8.1	24	5.41	1.50
1972	10.4	25	5.57	1.87
1973	10.6	26	5.24	2.02
1974	9.9	27	5.01	1.98
1975	8.5	28	4.98	1.71
1976	10.4	29	4.83	2.15
1977	10.3	30	5.16	2.00
1978	10	31	4.77	2.10
1979	9	32	4.77	1.89
1980	7.7	33	4.8	1.60
1981	8.5	34	4.75	1.79
1982	8.8	35	5.04	1.75
1983	8.4	36	5.15	1.63
1984	9.7	37	5.34	1.82
1985	8.1	38	5.34	1.52
1986	9.8	39	5.87	1.67
1987	11.5	40	5.96	1.93
1988	9.3	41	5.61	1.66
1989	11.3	42	5.67	1.99
1990	10.2	43	5.8	1.76
1991	10.6	44	5.59	1.90
1992	9	45	5.8	1.55
1993	6.2	46	6.18	1.00

His highest K rates compared to league were at ages 29, 31, 26, 30, 42, 27, 40, and 44.  He was a freak of nature, but something changed in 1987.

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Ryan's strikeout rates as a percentage of league:

Year	Ryan	Age	League	Percentage
1968	8.9	21	5.89	1.51
1969	9.3	22	5.77	1.61
1970	8.5	23	5.75	1.48
1971	8.1	24	5.41	1.50
1972	10.4	25	5.57	1.87
1973	10.6	26	5.24	2.02
1974	9.9	27	5.01	1.98
1975	8.5	28	4.98	1.71
1976	10.4	29	4.83	2.15
1977	10.3	30	5.16	2.00
1978	10	31	4.77	2.10
1979	9	32	4.77	1.89
1980	7.7	33	4.8	1.60
1981	8.5	34	4.75	1.79
1982	8.8	35	5.04	1.75
1983	8.4	36	5.15	1.63
1984	9.7	37	5.34	1.82
1985	8.1	38	5.34	1.52
1986	9.8	39	5.87	1.67
1987	11.5	40	5.96	1.93
1988	9.3	41	5.61	1.66
1989	11.3	42	5.67	1.99
1990	10.2	43	5.8	1.76
1991	10.6	44	5.59	1.90
1992	9	45	5.8	1.55
1993	6.2	46	6.18	1.00

His highest K rates compared to league were at ages 29, 31, 26, 30, 42, 27, 40, and 44.  He was a freak of nature, but something changed in 1987.

What else could have changed in '87?  It's odd because it went down in '88, more in line with his early 80s numbers.  And then back up in '89-'91.    

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

What else could have changed in '87?  It's odd because it went down in '88, more in line with his early 80s numbers.  And then back up in '89-'91.    

We could speculate all day.  Maybe he got more rest between starts (I looked, he did, but in '88 there was no performance difference in his short-rest starts).  Mike Scott and Jim Deshaies both fell off from '87-88, but they also fell off from '86-87.  I don't know.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

We could speculate all day.  Maybe he got more rest between starts (I looked, he did, but in '88 there was no performance difference in his short-rest starts).  Mike Scott and Jim Deshaies both fell off from '87-88, but they also fell off from '86-87.  I don't know.

I'll still prefer to think he went on a Rocky 4-like training montage (you know, when he was in Russia in the snow) and just was a beast rather than 80s style PEDs and ball scuffing.  But who knows.  

[DrungoHazewood]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'll still prefer to think he went on a Rocky 4-like training montage (you know, when he was in Russia in the snow) and just was a beast rather than 80s style PEDs and ball scuffing.  But who knows.  

Ryan was famous for throwing an 11-inning, 155-pitch complete game, striking out 22, beating up some whippersnappers in mid-game, then riding the exercise bike in the clubhouse for like three hours afterwards.

[murph]

This was a great baseball discussion to read, really needed this, best lunch break reading in a while.  Thanks guys!

The thing I remember about Kevin Bass is always swung a pink bat or is that just my memory playing tricks on me and I only remember him hitting on mothers day?

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Doug Jones was the closer, and he was 0-4, 5.01.  Benitez was 1-5, 5.66.  Mark Lee had a 4.86.  Arthur Rhodes was 2-5, 6.21.  Alan Mills had a 7.43 in 23 innings.  Brad Pennington walked 11 in 6.2 innings.  Terry Clark had a 3.46, but allowed 45 baserunners in 39 innings and just struck out 18 so his FIP was 4.41.  Jesse Orosco was the only reliever who pitched well, and he faced 1-2 batters a game.

Oriole relievers had a net WPA of -2.5 wins.

You'll lose some close games when the bullpen is consistently engulfed in flames.

But their save rate wasn’t bad.   88% for Jones (22 of 25), 66% for the team (29 of 44) which was league average.  Reliever ERA was about average, as was percentage of inherited runners who scored.   What’s pretty striking to me is that they only had 44 save opportunities, second lowest in the AL (53 was average).    

[DrungoHazewood]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But their save rate wasn’t bad.   88% for Jones (22 of 25), 66% for the team (29 of 44) which was league average.  Reliever ERA was about average, as was percentage of inherited runners who scored.   What’s pretty striking to me is that they only had 44 save opportunities, second lowest in the AL (53 was average).    

I would imagine that save opportunities are roughly negatively correlated with run environment.  More runs, fewer saves.  Which is either wrong, or the Orioles were an exception because the '95 team both scored and allowed fewer runs than an average AL team.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

What else could have changed in '87?  It's odd because it went down in '88, more in line with his early 80s numbers.  And then back up in '89-'91.    

 or  

Actually, I've always been curious about Ryan late career resurgence as well. I might try to see if I can find an informed take on the subject this weekend since I'm stuck at home. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 or  

Actually, I've always been curious about Ryan late career resurgence as well. I might try to see if I can find an informed take on the subject this weekend since I'm stuck at home. 

I might be able to find it on Bill James' site, maybe not, but at some point he made a remark along the lines of "oh, I thought it was pretty common knowledge that Ryan was doctoring the ball late in his career."  And James has at least been around MLB for 40 years.

[OsEatAlEast]

One of the coolest things about the 1995 Orioles had to be the 5 straight shutouts to end the season.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

I might be able to find it on Bill James' site, maybe not, but at some point he made a remark along the lines of "oh, I thought it was pretty common knowledge that Ryan was doctoring the ball late in his career."  And James has at least been around MLB for 40 years.

I could see that because he was teammates with Mike Scott on the Astros. And I don't care what Scott says, he was doctoring the ball to some degree. 

[OsEatAlEast]

I always found it funny about how right the guys on WFAN in NY were about how Sid Fernandez's career with the O's would pan out. Right after the O's singed him a Yankee fan called in saying how much better the O's pitching staff would be with Fernandez. One of the guys on the midnight show said(paraphrasing of course) "You know Fernandez is a fly ball pitcher. I think a lot of the fly ball outs he got in Shea stadium are going to end up in the first or second row outfield seats in Camden Yards". That is in fact just how it worked out.

Edited April 17, 2020 by OsEatAlEast

[DrungoHazewood]

25 minutes ago, OsEatAlEast said:

I always found it funny about how right the guys on WFAN in NY were about how Sid Fernandez's career with the O's would pan out. Right after the O's singed him a Yankee fan called in saying how much better the O's pitching staff would be with Fernandez. One of the guys on the midnight show said(paraphrasing of course) "You know Fernandez is a fly ball pitcher. I think a lot of the fly ball outs he got in Shea stadium are going to end up in the first or second row outfield seats in Camden Yards". That is in fact just how it worked out.

In 1994 Sid Fernandez allowed more homers on the road (14) than he did at Camden Yards (13).  I think he just sucked.