The Star Power of the 1995 Orioles

[DrungoHazewood]

On another site I was reading someone mentioned Andy Van Slyke.  Really an excellent outfielder with the Pirates in the 1980s, a slashing line drive hitter and centerfielder. He was an Oriole for a few months, in 1995.  Phil Regan's team, his one year as a manager.  I'd forgotten how extensive the collection of stars were on that team.  The problem was most of them were terrible.  Just awful.  Many of them had the worst seasons of their careers.

There were the home grown or longer-term Orioles.  Cal, Raffy, Hoiles, Brady, Harold Baines.  Hammonds.  That was Jeff Manto's 15 minutes of fame.  Those guys were pretty good.

But they also had Van Slyke, Kevin Bass, Bobby Bonilla, Matt Nokes, Doug Jones, Jesse Orosco, Sid Fernandez, Jamie Moyer... that's more than 20 All Star games and a bunch of MVP and Cy Young votes among that group. Jones had 300 saves.  Moyer 269 wins and 638 starts.   Bass had a 14-year career and some MVP support in '86.  Fernandez got some Cy Young support in '86, led the league in winning perentage in '89. 

Bonilla and Orosco were the only ones who weren't a disaster. Van Slyke went 10-for-63 and was traded in June for the last four innings of Gene Harris. Bass had a .639 OPS. Moyer and Jones had ERAs over 5.00. Nokes hit .122. And Fernandez had a 7.39 ERA.

The 1928 A's finished in second place, and had eight Hall of Famers.  But Ty Cobb, Eddie Collins, and Tris Speaker were all over 40.  Got rid of them the next year and they tore past the Ruth/Gehrig Yanks.  The '95 Orioles were a poor man's '28 A's.  Once they dumped that great mass of washed up old guys they made the playoffs in '96.

[Moose Milligan]

The only thing I remember about Kevin Bass is he's the one that hit the line drive to the wall in Seattle where Griffey Jr. jumped into the wall and broke his wrist.

I remember Van Slyke being a massive disappointment.  Pretty sure I called Fernandez "Fat Ass Fernandez," all the time.  He was awful.  

Pretty sure that Doug Jones had, like, a 3 mph difference between his changeup and his fastball.

[ShaneDawg85]

Even for a strike shortened season, I've said before there's a great argument to be made that the '95 Orioles were the biggest underachiever in team history.  '96 would have been if they hadn't made the playoffs and had that deep run because they slept walk the first part of that season.  '98 and '99 get a bit of a pass even though they were immediately after the '97 team, because they were both a lot older than the the core group that went wire to wire.

As for '95, a team with all of those names, a pitching staff that finished second in the AL in ERA with a starting five of Mussina, Kevin Brown, Jamie Moyer, later Scott Erickson, and Ben McDonald.  On paper that's a license to print playoff tickets.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, ShaneDawg85 said:

Even for a strike shortened season, I've said before there's a great argument to be made that the '95 Orioles were the biggest underachiever in team history.  '96 would have been if they hadn't made the playoffs and had that deep run because they slept walk the first part of that season.  '98 and '99 get a bit of a pass even though they were immediately after the '97 team, because they were both a lot older than the the core group that went wire to wire.

As for '95, a team with all of those names, a pitching staff that finished second in the AL in ERA with a starting five of Mussina, Kevin Brown, Jamie Moyer, later Scott Erickson, and Ben McDonald.  On paper that's a license to print playoff tickets.

They finished two games under .500.

You had folks here on OH suggesting that the 2018 team was a WC contender and they ended up 68 games under.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

19 minutes ago, ShaneDawg85 said:

Even for a strike shortened season, I've said before there's a great argument to be made that the '95 Orioles were the biggest underachiever in team history.  '96 would have been if they hadn't made the playoffs and had that deep run because they slept walk the first part of that season.  '98 and '99 get a bit of a pass even though they were immediately after the '97 team, because they were both a lot older than the the core group that went wire to wire.

As for '95, a team with all of those names, a pitching staff that finished second in the AL in ERA with a starting five of Mussina, Kevin Brown, Jamie Moyer, later Scott Erickson, and Ben McDonald.  On paper that's a license to print playoff tickets.

The Orioles won seven less games (71-73) than their predicted Pythagorean record of 78-66. That would have put them one game behind the wildcard Yankees that lost to the Mariners in an epic playoff series. 

So yes this Orioles team was a massive disappointment.  

[LA2]

21 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

On another site I was reading someone mentioned Andy Van Slyke.  Really an excellent outfielder with the Pirates in the 1980s, a slashing line drive hitter and centerfielder. He was an Oriole for a few months, in 1995.  Phil Regan's team, his one year as a manager.  I'd forgotten how extensive the collection of stars were on that team.  The problem was most of them were terrible.  Just awful.  Many of them had the worst seasons of their careers.

There were the home grown or longer-term Orioles.  Cal, Raffy, Hoiles, Brady, Harold Baines.  Hammonds.  That was Jeff Manto's 15 minutes of fame.  Those guys were pretty good.

But they also had Van Slyke, Kevin Bass, Bobby Bonilla, Matt Nokes, Doug Jones, Jesse Orosco, Sid Fernandez, Jamie Moyer... that's more than 20 All Star games and a bunch of MVP and Cy Young votes among that group. Jones had 300 saves.  Moyer 269 wins and 638 starts.   Bass had a 14-year career and some MVP support in '86.  Fernandez got some Cy Young support in '86, led the league in winning perentage in '89. 

Bonilla and Orosco were the only ones who weren't a disaster. Van Slyke went 10-for-63 and was traded in June for the last four innings of Gene Harris. Bass had a .639 OPS. Moyer and Jones had ERAs over 5.00. Nokes hit .122. And Fernandez had a 7.39 ERA.

The 1928 A's finished in second place, and had eight Hall of Famers.  But Ty Cobb, Eddie Collins, and Tris Speaker were all over 40.  Got rid of them the next year and they tore past the Ruth/Gehrig Yanks.  The '95 Orioles were a poor man's '28 A's.  Once they dumped that great mass of washed up old guys they made the playoffs in '96.

Interesting post that refreshed my memory of part of what had to be done to put togeher the 1996 team.

On Jamie Moyer, however, two points of difference: 1. He did have a good season with the O's in 1993 (12-9, 130 ERA+); 2. More importantly, unlike all the other players you mentioned, Moyer began his ascent to stardom after he left Baltimore, during an almost unbroken run from the age of 34 (17-5, 116 ERA+ with Seattle, 1997) to 16-7, 117 ERA+ in 2008 with Philly at the age of 45.

Indeed,  combined with letting Kevin Brown go as a free agent after the same 1995 season, so that he could promptly win the league ERA title with the Marlins, placing second for the Cy Young Award, it seems to me that the O's problem was as much letting go of players about to become stars as acquiring ones who no longer were.

To be more precise, the 1996 versions of Moyer and Brown would have topped the Mussina-led '96 O's starting rotation in ERA by a long shot and placed second and third in Wins. The top four of the O's rotation were Mussina (19 Ws, 4.81 ERA), Erickson (13 W, 5.02), Wells (11 W, 5.14), and Rocky Coppinger (10 W, 5.18)--with Rick Krivda (4.96), Kent Mercker (7.76 ERA), and Jimmy Haynes (8.29) bringing up the rear with a total of 34 starts. Brown went 17-11, 1.89 and Moyer 13-3, 3.98. I wager that would have made the difference in how far the '96 team got, although all the slugging was certainly fun to watch--they led the league in attendance with an astounding 3.65 million (3,646,950 to be exact).

[Moose Milligan]

5 hours ago, ShaneDawg85 said:

Even for a strike shortened season, I've said before there's a great argument to be made that the '95 Orioles were the biggest underachiever in team history.  '96 would have been if they hadn't made the playoffs and had that deep run because they slept walk the first part of that season.  '98 and '99 get a bit of a pass even though they were immediately after the '97 team, because they were both a lot older than the the core group that went wire to wire.

As for '95, a team with all of those names, a pitching staff that finished second in the AL in ERA with a starting five of Mussina, Kevin Brown, Jamie Moyer, later Scott Erickson, and Ben McDonald.  On paper that's a license to print playoff tickets.

Let's be clear here, Jaime Moyer wasn't really JAIME MOYER yet.  When they got him in '93, he was a journeyman type.  And he had a good season that year but he regressed each year after.  No one would have ever believed after the Orioles let him go after '95 that he'd go on to win 208 games with a 4.13 ERA.  It's easy to look at that name now and remember what a great career he had and how long he lasted but no would have had a clue then.  

Kind of similar with Kevin Brown...Kevin Brown was a good pitcher but he really wasn't KEVIN BROWN yet.  He really started to dominate in '96.  Don't get me wrong, he was pretty damn good for his one season in Baltimore but his season ended early when he tried to field a chopper back up the middle with his pitching hand and he broke a finger.  

Two guys that...if the Orioles held onto them, would they have reached the heights they did?  Hard to know.  

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, ShaneDawg85 said:

Even for a strike shortened season, I've said before there's a great argument to be made that the '95 Orioles were the biggest underachiever in team history.  '96 would have been if they hadn't made the playoffs and had that deep run because they slept walk the first part of that season.  '98 and '99 get a bit of a pass even though they were immediately after the '97 team, because they were both a lot older than the the core group that went wire to wire.

As for '95, a team with all of those names, a pitching staff that finished second in the AL in ERA with a starting five of Mussina, Kevin Brown, Jamie Moyer, later Scott Erickson, and Ben McDonald.  On paper that's a license to print playoff tickets.

That team outscored its opponents by 64 runs and somehow finished 71-73.    Pythagorean record was 78-66.   Definitely an underachieving team.   

[InsideCoroner]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Let's be clear here, Jaime Moyer wasn't really JAIME MOYER yet.  When they got him in '93, he was a journeyman type.  And he had a good season that year but he regressed each year after.  No one would have ever believed after the Orioles let him go after '95 that he'd go on to win 208 games with a 4.13 ERA.  It's easy to look at that name now and remember what a great career he had and how long he lasted but no would have had a clue then.  

Kind of similar with Kevin Brown...Kevin Brown was a good pitcher but he really wasn't KEVIN BROWN yet.  He really started to dominate in '96.  Don't get me wrong, he was pretty damn good for his one season in Baltimore but his season ended early when he tried to field a chopper back up the middle with his pitching hand and he broke a finger.  

Two guys that...if the Orioles held onto them, would they have reached the heights they did?  Hard to know.  

What about our most extreme example, Dennis Martinez? Pretty weird career arc to be worth less than 11 WAR combined in his first ten seasons for the O’s (even demonstrably our worst starter on the ‘83 championship team), but then his age 32-39 years for the Expos are worth nearly three times as much. I know he had alcohol dependency issues with Baltimore that he beat, and I was always glad to see him develop into an excellent pitcher... but it was like night and day. Heck, he was worth more in the three years he pitched for Cleveland age 39-42 than he was in his whole Baltimore career. I can’t imagine there are many stories like that. (Although if there are, I’m sure Drungo will enlighten us!)

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Let's be clear here, Jaime Moyer wasn't really JAIME MOYER yet.  When they got him in '93, he was a journeyman type.  And he had a good season that year but he regressed each year after.  No one would have ever believed after the Orioles let him go after '95 that he'd go on to win 208 games with a 4.13 ERA.  It's easy to look at that name now and remember what a great career he had and how long he lasted but no would have had a clue then.  

Kind of similar with Kevin Brown...Kevin Brown was a good pitcher but he really wasn't KEVIN BROWN yet.  He really started to dominate in '96.  Don't get me wrong, he was pretty damn good for his one season in Baltimore but his season ended early when he tried to field a chopper back up the middle with his pitching hand and he broke a finger.  

Two guys that...if the Orioles held onto them, would they have reached the heights they did?  Hard to know.  

People will sometimes (or would, not too many people remember Moyer so much any more) say so-and-so is the new Jamie Moyer.  Moyer was a massive outlier.  Using him as an model to follow is a fool's errand.  When the Orioles let him go he was 59-76 with a 4.51 ERA (94 ERA+), and he was 32 years old.  By bb-ref the most comparable pitcher to Moyer through age 32 was Mark Redman, who ended up with 68 major league wins and retired at 34.  At 33 his top comp was Scott Feldman, object of so many 2013 Oriole fans' anger, who would also retire at 34 with just 78 wins.  And at 34 Moyer's top comp was Jason Vargas, who is 99-99 with a 4.29.

The only pitcher kind of comparable to Moyer is Joe Niekro, a knuckleballer.  And knuckleballers are weird and often don't figure out the pitch until their 30s.

When anyone says "this guy sucks now, but is going to be the new Jamie Moyer" tell him he's crazy.  There's only one Jamie Moyer.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

9 hours ago, InsideCoroner said:

What about our most extreme example, Dennis Martinez? Pretty weird career arc to be worth less than 11 WAR combined in his first ten seasons for the O’s (even demonstrably our worst starter on the ‘83 championship team), but then his age 32-39 years for the Expos are worth nearly three times as much. I know he had alcohol dependency issues with Baltimore that he beat, and I was always glad to see him develop into an excellent pitcher... but it was like night and day. Heck, he was worth more in the three years he pitched for Cleveland age 39-42 than he was in his whole Baltimore career. I can’t imagine there are many stories like that. (Although if there are, I’m sure Drungo will enlighten us!)

Pitchers often have much less predictable career arcs than position players.  But still, not many are dramatically better in their 30s than their 20s.  And when it happens there is usually a clear reason.  Martinez stopped drinking.  Dazzy Vance broke off a bone spur hitting his elbow on a poker table, and after surgery was the best pitcher in baseball.  Knuckleballers take a decade to figure out the pitch.  Some early pitchers like Bill Hutchison who didn't start pro careers until very late because 1800s baseball was disorganized and chaotic.

Moyer is almost unique in that there was no precipitating cause.  He just turned into a very good pitcher in his mid-30s.

Interesting side point: I made a list of the top old (32+) pitchers of all time.  Just scanning that list there are at least nine knuckleballers in the top 100.  The Niekros, Hoyt Wilhelm, Dutch Leonard, Eddie Cicotte, Charlie Hough, Tom Candiotti, RA Dickey, Tim Wakefield, and I'm sure I'm missing a few. In any given season today there are one, two, three knuckleballers out of 300+ MLB pitchers.  So being a knuckleballer probably increases the odds of pitching well into your late 30s or even 40s by 10 or 20 times compared to a standard pitcher.

 

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

That team outscored its opponents by 64 runs and somehow finished 71-73.    Pythagorean record was 78-66.   Definitely an underachieving team.   

Doug Jones was the closer, and he was 0-4, 5.01.  Benitez was 1-5, 5.66.  Mark Lee had a 4.86.  Arthur Rhodes was 2-5, 6.21.  Alan Mills had a 7.43 in 23 innings.  Brad Pennington walked 11 in 6.2 innings.  Terry Clark had a 3.46, but allowed 45 baserunners in 39 innings and just struck out 18 so his FIP was 4.41.  Jesse Orosco was the only reliever who pitched well, and he faced 1-2 batters a game.

Oriole relievers had a net WPA of -2.5 wins.

You'll lose some close games when the bullpen is consistently engulfed in flames.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

People will sometimes (or would, not too many people remember Moyer so much any more) say so-and-so is the new Jamie Moyer.  Moyer was a massive outlier.  Using him as an model to follow is a fool's errand.  When the Orioles let him go he was 59-76 with a 4.51 ERA (94 ERA+), and he was 32 years old.  By bb-ref the most comparable pitcher to Moyer through age 32 was Mark Redman, who ended up with 68 major league wins and retired at 34.  At 33 his top comp was Scott Feldman, object of so many 2013 Oriole fans' anger, who would also retire at 34 with just 78 wins.  And at 34 Moyer's top comp was Jason Vargas, who is 99-99 with a 4.29.

The only pitcher kind of comparable to Moyer is Joe Niekro, a knuckleballer.  And knuckleballers are weird and often don't figure out the pitch until their 30s.

When anyone says "this guy sucks now, but is going to be the new Jamie Moyer" tell him he's crazy.  There's only one Jamie Moyer.

 

Yep, you put it way better than I could have.  But that's a really good explanation.

And even after he left and he had a few good years it was like..."Man, we had that guy, that sucks, but that can't last..."  And he just kept...going.  For a really long time.  Sheesh, Wikipedia says that as of his retirement, he had faced 8.9% of ALL MLB HITTERS EVER.  That's ridiculous.

He's an extreme outlier, absolutely.  And he's not a Hall of Fame worthy guy but I kinda almost think he is.  It depends on your definition of who's a Hall of Famer and for me it depends on which side of the bed I wake up on.  Sometimes I think "Well, a small Hall would be really nice."  And other times I think "It's the Hall of FAME.  FAME.  Were they famous?  Yeah, they might not have racked up a huge amount of WAR but...were they popular?  Memorable?"

Under the second notion of what the Hall of Fame should be...Moyer is a Hall of Famer.  Nolan Ryan is an outlier.  Rickey Henderson is an outlier.  Jamie Moyer is an outlier.  Sure, Jaime Moyer wasn't dominant, didn't throw a bunch of no-hitters, strike out a lot of batters...but he was extremely memorable, we'll probably never see anyone like that again.  Like we won't see Nolan Ryan again.  Or Rickey Henderson again.  Sometimes I think Jamie Moyer deserves recognition for being such an outlier.  

But maybe being Jamie Moyer is enough.  I'm not sure what he's up to these days but he made enough money during his career to set himself and his family up for life.  He wrote a book, had a stint as a broadcaster, opportunities that probably wouldn't have been afforded to him if he wasn't Jamie Moyer.  One should be so lucky.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yep, you put it way better than I could have.  But that's a really good explanation.

And even after he left and he had a few good years it was like..."Man, we had that guy, that sucks, but that can't last..."  And he just kept...going.  For a really long time.  Sheesh, Wikipedia says that as of his retirement, he had faced 8.9% of ALL MLB HITTERS EVER.  That's ridiculous.

He's an extreme outlier, absolutely.  And he's not a Hall of Fame worthy guy but I kinda almost think he is.  It depends on your definition of who's a Hall of Famer and for me it depends on which side of the bed I wake up on.  Sometimes I think "Well, a small Hall would be really nice."  And other times I think "It's the Hall of FAME.  FAME.  Were they famous?  Yeah, they might not have racked up a huge amount of WAR but...were they popular?  Memorable?"

Under the second notion of what the Hall of Fame should be...Moyer is a Hall of Famer.  Nolan Ryan is an outlier.  Rickey Henderson is an outlier.  Jamie Moyer is an outlier.  Sure, Jaime Moyer wasn't dominant, didn't throw a bunch of no-hitters, strike out a lot of batters...but he was extremely memorable, we'll probably never see anyone like that again.  Like we won't see Nolan Ryan again.  Or Rickey Henderson again.  Sometimes I think Jamie Moyer deserves recognition for being such an outlier.  

But maybe being Jamie Moyer is enough.  I'm not sure what he's up to these days but he made enough money during his career to set himself and his family up for life.  He wrote a book, had a stint as a broadcaster, opportunities that probably wouldn't have been afforded to him if he wasn't Jamie Moyer.  One should be so lucky.

I'm a huge Hall guy, so I'm fine with Moyer going in.  Along with about 84 other guys I could construct convoluted cases for.

And I hate to say this, but maybe Moyer had some help.  It's was the 90s after all.  Most of the guys popped for PEDs were pitchers and one of the characteristics of steroids is arresting or reversing age-related decline.  Or maybe he was doctoring the ball.  On Bill James' site he's strongly hinted that Nolan Ryan was doctoring the ball starting in his late 30s or so, probably about the time his K rate spiked from 8 to 11.  I wouldn't really hold it against him, and I have ZERO proof, but being that much of an outlier provokes suspicion.

The counter argument is that he wasn't that much better.  His best ERA+ through 32 was 130.  His best afterwards was 132.  He just was more consistently good, and for a unnaturally long time.

[ScGO's]

20 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Pretty sure I called Fernandez "Fat Ass Fernandez," all the time.  He was awful. 

I have a childhood memory of watching an O's game on TV where Sid was pitching.  Right before he delivered a pitch, a fan sitting behind home plate lifted up a sign that said "Sid Want a Pizza?"  Hilarious then, and still hilarious now.  Another terrible pitcher with a huge butt was Terry Matthews but he didn't come to Baltimore until 96.