New ZIPS Projections for Shortened Season

[TommyPickles]

https://www.mlb.com/news/new-zips-projections-for-shortened-2020-mlb-season

I thought this was fascinating.  The shortened season creates far more uncertainty when it comes to season projections.  A few highlights:

In the 162-game model, the Yankees had a 97.7% chance of making the postseason.

In the 60-game revised model, they have a 66.5% chance of making the postseason.

 

In the 162-game model, the Orioles had a 0.00% chance of making the postseason.

In the 60-game revised model, they have a 1.4% chance of making the postseason.

 

In the 162-game model, the Blue Jays had a 0.6% chance of making the postseason.

In the 60-game revised model, they have a 15.1% chance of making the postseason.

 

They also calculate that the Orioles have the most difficult new schedule in baseball...

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, TommyPickles said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/new-zips-projections-for-shortened-2020-mlb-season

I thought this was fascinating.  The shortened season creates far more uncertainty when it comes to season projections.  A few highlights:

In the 162-game model, the Yankees had a 97.7% chance of making the postseason.

In the 60-game revised model, they have a 66.5% chance of making the postseason.

 

In the 162-game model, the Orioles had a 0.00% chance of making the postseason.

In the 60-game revised model, they have a 1.4% chance of making the postseason.

 

In the 162-game model, the Blue Jays had a 0.6% chance of making the postseason.

In the 60-game revised model, they have a 15.1% chance of making the postseason.

 

They also calculate that the Orioles have the most difficult new schedule in baseball...

 

Mostly because they don't get to play the Orioles!

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mostly because they don't get to play the Orioles!

Yep, the hardest schedule in MLB goes to the worst team in the best division.

Those projections are a good example of the statistical principle of how standard deviation goes up as the number of trials goes down.

[Moose Milligan]

Zip of a season.

[jerios55]