#27 2020 Prospect: Ryan McKenna - CF/LF

[Tony-OH]

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2020/10/29/27-2020-prospect-ryan-mckenna-cf-lf/

[Sports Guy]

While I wouldn’t have had him here, I’m glad to see him rated “low”.

 

There hasn’t been a more overhyped prospect in the organization than him in recent years (at least in many other sites). Maybe he can be a back up OFer but he is no more than that and even that may be stretch if he can’t hit.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That .377 average in a half season at Frederick after a solid second half at Delmarva the year before sure looked good.    Hard to believe that .377 at high A became a .230 at Double A.   There's gotta be something in there somewhere.

Or the 377 was a big fluke.  
 

I think he finds his way onto a ML roster if the reports are true that he is an excellent fielder and has good speed.  With the 26th man now in play, there is room for that player on the team and you shouldn’t have to pay anything more than the league minimum for that production.  

[LookinUp]

27 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That .377 average in a half season at Frederick after a solid second half at Delmarva the year before sure looked good.    Hard to believe that .377 at high A became a .230 at Double A.   There's gotta be something in there somewhere.

I used to think that too until Xavier Avery lit the world on fire for a while.

When you're hot in baseball, you're hot. You can put up stats really fast. You need to be able to 1) sustain it against the same competition and 2) do it as the competition gets harder. McKenna hasn't done either. 

I know I keep mentioning Yaz, but absent a Yaz-like hitting profile change, I just don't see it with this kid. I wish I did because his speed is off the charts. 

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

That .377 average in a half season at Frederick after a solid second half at Delmarva the year before sure looked good.    Hard to believe that .377 at high A became a .230 at Double A.   There's gotta be something in there somewhere.

Small sample batting averages, or value spikes driven by out-of-character batting averages, come with big flashing caution lights. 

Remember Harry Berrios?  Probably not, I may be the only one.  He hit .342 in A ball in the O's system in '94.  Never got higher than AA before going to the indy leagues.  Mike Berry was from the same era, hit .362 for the High Desert Mavericks the year they were an O's affiliate in '96.  .748 OPS in AAA, never played in the majors.  Ty Kelly hit .346 for the Keys in '12.  Career in the majors of a .611 OPS.  Robbie Widlansky once hit .340 for the Keys.  Kipp Schutz hit .381 for couple months for the Shorebirds in '11.  Yermin Mercedes hit .353 for the Shorebirds in '16, he's now 27 and 0-for-1 in the majors.

You probably get that I'm skeptical of crazy batting averages in the minors.  Take out McKenna's 300 PAs of a .377 and his career average is .240-something.

[Tony-OH]

His tools are what keeps him on the list for me, particular since he brings a solid set of defensive tools. There is raw power in the bat and he taps into on occasion. Saying that, he's got a lot to prove at the upper levels to prove that Frederick season wasn't a fluke.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

While I wouldn’t have had him here, I’m glad to see him rated “low”.

 

There hasn’t been a more overhyped prospect in the organization than him in recent years (at least in many other sites). Maybe he can be a back up OFer but he is no more than that and even that may be stretch if he can’t hit.

Jomar Reyes would like a word.

[Ripken]

4 hours ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Jomar Reyes would like a word.

No doubt.  I saw that kid play 50 games in Frederick and he was never good.  At anything.  

[Legend_Of_Joey]

17 minutes ago, Ripken said:

No doubt.  I saw that kid play 50 games in Frederick and he was never good.  At anything.  

He was a batting practice legend.

Until Aderlin Rodriguez arrived...

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Or the 377 was a big fluke.  
 

I think he finds his way onto a ML roster if the reports are true that he is an excellent fielder and has good speed.  With the 26th man now in play, there is room for that player on the team and you shouldn’t have to pay anything more than the league minimum for that production.  

The .377 was a fluke.  But he did also hit .344 in the AFL that Fall, too.   Do I think he’s a potential .300+ hitter as a major leaguer?   Not at all.    But a guy who can play a solid major league CF doesn’t have to hit a ton to be a useful player.    His career MiL line of .264/.350/.387 would do the trick just fine if he could pull that off in the majors.    

[wildcard]

McKenna will play 2021 at 24 years old(If they play).   He will probably begin at AA.   He has time to improve.    But to move up he has to hit.   Good defense is important but if he doesn't hit he will not go very far.