Bets on where Tony will rank Hoes?

[Big Mac]

Most scout that I talked to agree that he could be a legit set-up/closer type, which is a difference. Now let me ask you a question. . . If his command issue go away and he back at '07(which you seem to ignore) and as Frobby pointed out:

what then?

Yes his walk rate was lower at Frederick, but that went along with a 4.95 ERA.

It's the "if's" that make me skeptical of Hernandez. It's always "what if?", well what if he doesn't? Well at this point in his career he shouldn't have this many question marks.

My point with Hernandez is that he has too many things still to do to become a ML starter. At 23 years old, you'd like a player to be more of a finished product. He's probably ready to pitvh out of a ML bullpen now, but if he's going to be a starter, he's probably a year or two away.

[orioole28]

Most scout that I talked to agree that he could be a legit set-up/closer type, which is a difference. Now let me ask you a question. . . If his command issue go away and he back at '07(which you seem to ignore) and as Frobby pointed out:

what then?

His fastball is legit, while his slider(which was best in the organization according to BA)is also legit and his change up he needs confidence to throw it can be an effective pitch also. Like slappy says '07 is the key, but there's nothing wrong with being a reliever of some sorts.

[Big Mac]

His fastball is legit, while his slider(which was best in the organization according to BA)is also legit and his change up he needs confidence to throw it can be an effective pitch also. Like slappy says '07 is the key, but there's nothing wrong with being a reliever of some sorts.

Exactly.

I know it seems like I'm slamming Hernandez, which I'm not trying to do.

I say I think he can be a good middle reliever/set-up man, and that's pretty valuable. He might be able to be a closer, I think it's unlikely but certainly very possible. I think he's going to be a power arm out of the BP, which is great to have, imagine Jim Johnson with more K's.

[slappy12]

Yes his walk rate was lower at Frederick, but that went along with a 4.95 ERA.

It's the "if's" that make me skeptical of Hernandez. It's always "what if?", well what if he doesn't? Well at this point in his career he shouldn't have this many question marks.

My point with Hernandez is that he has too many things still to do to become a ML starter. At 23 years old, you'd like a player to be more of a finished product. He's probably ready to pitvh out of a ML bullpen now, but if he's going to be a starter, he's probably a year or two away.

I guess I'm having a hard time expaining this to you. So this is will be last time. Question. . . If he can get his BB/9 to what it was in '07 and pitch as effectively as his did in '08(ERA 2.65, BAA .217, 167 K's) then what?? As for too many things wrong. . . really it's his command(pitch count) which is one thing and he if can correct it then I see him as a viable starter in the ML.

[Big Mac]

I guess I'm having a hard time expaining this to you. So this is will be last time. Question. . . If he can get his BB/9 to what it was in '07 and pitch as effectively as his did in '08(ERA 2.65, BAA .217, 167 K's) then what?? As for too many things wrong. . . really it's his command(pitch count) which is one thing and he if can correct it then I see him as a viable starter in the ML.

You don't have to explain anything to me, you're not telling me anything I don't know.

Again you're counting on a lot of things to go right for Hernandez. If he goes back to his '07 BB rate and couple that with his other '08 numbers do I think he can be a starter, yes. But it would take a lot for that to happen and expecting it to happen is foolish.

It's like our FO in years past saying well if this and this and that all break the right way then we could possibly become a contender, that doesn't work and that's not how you should evaluate prospects.

I see Hernadez as a reliever. Do I think he can be a ML starter? yes. Do I think it's likely?no.

[Frobby]

You don't have to explain anything to me, you're not telling me anything I don't know.

Again you're counting on a lot of things to go right for Hernandez. If he goes back to his '07 BB rate and couple that with his other '08 numbers do I think he can be a starter, yes. But it would take a lot for that to happen and expecting it to happen is foolish.

It's like our FO in years past saying well if this and this and that all break the right way then we could possibly become a contender, that doesn't work and that's not how you should evaluate prospects.

I see Hernadez as a reliever. Do I think he can be a ML starter? yes. Do I think it's likely?no.

This whole argument (both sides) strikes me as silly. Maybe Hernandez will improve in the areas where he needs to improve, and maybe he won't. Obviously you can't just assume that he will improve. Just as obviously, you can't assume that he won't improve. So it's all a matter of what is likely, and the two of you disagree on that likelihood. Fine. We'll see how next year unfolds, and then we'll know.

The one place where I disagree with you is your assumption that because Hernandez is 23 he's unlikely to improve further. That's not necessarily the case. 23 isn't that old. There are plenty of guys who were still in the minors at age 24 who went on to become good big league starting pitchers.

That said, I'd agree that the probabilities lie with Hernandez ending up as a reliever. I just don't want to write off his chances as a starter yet.

[Lucky Jim]

This whole argument (both sides) strikes me as silly. Maybe Hernandez will improve in the areas where he needs to improve, and maybe he won't. Obviously you can't just assume that he will improve. Just as obviously, you can't assume that he won't improve. So it's all a matter of what is likely, and the two of you disagree on that likelihood. Fine. We'll see how next year unfolds, and then we'll know.

The one place where I disagree with you is your assumption that because Hernandez is 23 he's unlikely to improve further. That's not necessarily the case. 23 isn't that old. There are plenty of guys who were still in the minors at age 24 who went on to become good big league starting pitchers.

That said, I'd agree that the probabilities lie with Hernandez ending up as a reliever. I just don't want to write off his chances as a starter yet.

And John Manuel would probably agree with you. Which is why this whole debate is amazing.