Bets on where Tony will rank Hoes?

[Frobby]

I think L.J. Hoes is the wild card in Tony's rankings. Tony has always liked the guys with a lot of upside who haven't had a full opportunity to show what they can do. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Hoes sneak in to Tony's top 10. Personally I'd have him a little lower, but in the top 15. Thoughts?

[Big Mac]

I think L.J. Hoes is the wild card in Tony's rankings. Tony has always liked the guys with a lot of upside who haven't had a full opportunity to show what they can do. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Hoes sneak in to Tony's top 10. Personally I'd have him a little lower, but in the top 15. Thoughts?

I think he's definitley going to be in the top 15, possibly top 10. He's #11 on my list, ahead of David Hernandez and Brad Bergesen, I think Tony will rank Hoes above both as well.

I think a real wild card is Xavier Avery, I think Tony will have him higher than most people on here.

[slappy12]

I think he's definitley going to be in the top 15, possibly top 10. He's #11 on my list, ahead of David Hernandez and Brad Bergesen, I think Tony will rank Hoes above both as well.

I think a real wild card is Xavier Avery, I think Tony will have him higher than most people on here.

You are right he's going to be in the top 15, he's going to be 15th, behind Hernandez and Bergesen.

[hoosiers]

Such a subjective sounding thread title, like Tony is some random guru handing down rankings. I believe Tony's rankings are a compilation from several OH staffers and warehouse employees of various levels along with scouts of other organizations - besides first hand analysis. Tony's lists have evolved tremendously over the past five or so years as he works in recently drafted players into the list and makes other adjustments based on feedback on prior lists.

Anyway, regarding Hoes, I expect he will be in the 10-18 range near Bundy and Avery. All were very well regarded last summer - perhaps wth Bundy the highest ranked. Avery was known to be a project and I would be skeptical of Hoes being ranked ahead of Avery based on rookie league at-bats, but if Hoes played significantly better than expectations already, perhaps he deserves to be ranked higher.

One factor in ranking this trio is where they stand relative to injured pitchers like Patton and Spoone. I think they trio should be below those three, but we'll see.

I think the surprise may be Bergesen. He put up tremendous results in Bowie.

[Big Mac]

You are right he's going to be in the top 15, he's going to be 15th, behind Hernandez and Bergesen.

I don't think so.

Bergesen has a very limited ceiling and Hernandez is probably a middle-reliever/set-up man.

Hoes has a very high ceiling, and Tony really likes players with huge potential.

[Icterus galbula]

I definitely don't see Hoes behind Bergesen. Ima guess #12.

[Big Mac]

I think the surprise may be Bergesen. He put up tremendous results in Bowie.

I don't expect Bergesen to be ranked very high.

He had a great season, but let's face it, he doesn't have much of a ceiling. He'll be lucky to become a 5th starter, and I don't know how effective he'll be as a reliever because he can't get LH hitters out.

I could be wrong, but I expect Bergesen/Hernandez to be ranked lower than most people expect.

[slappy12]

I don't think so.

Bergesen has a very limited ceiling and Hernandez is probably a middle-reliever/set-up man.

Hoes has a very high ceiling, and Tony really likes players with huge potential.

Do you believe in everything you read?? Just because Manuel of BA(who said he was only as good as a middle reliever, if that, which was ridiculous)for whatever reason doesn't like Hernandez will probably make their top 10, along with Sickels, Baseball Prospectus and many more. He's missing one component and that's command and you should be able to teach that. You can't teach missing bats and 92-94MPH(touching 95) you can't teach. He has much more pluses than he has minuses. Of all the publications I have read in regards to Hernandez has been all good and saying pretty much the same thing and that is possible set-up, closer type, but if he can harness his command then you are looking at a No.4-5 starter, not a maybe middle reliever like Manuel said. As for Bergesen, he had a very good year and he just needs to come up with another pitch that will be effective against lefthanded hitters and when he come up with that pitch he could be a effective ML pitcher.

[orioole28]

Do you believe in everything you read?? Just because Manuel of BA(who said he was only as good as a middle reliever, if that, which was ridiculous)for whatever reason doesn't like Hernandez will probably make their top 10, along with Sickels, Baseball Prospectus and many more. He's missing one component and that's command and you should be able to teach that. You can't teach missing bats and 92-94MPH(touching 95) you can't teach. He has much more pluses than he has minuses. Of all the publications I have read in regards to Hernandez has been all good and saying pretty much the same thing and that is possible set-up, closer type, but if he can harness his command then you are looking at a No.4-5 starter, not a maybe middle reliever like Manuel said. As for Bergesen, he had a very good year and he just needs to come up with another pitch that will be effective against lefthanded hitters and when he come up with that pitch he could be a effective ML pitcher.

I think Manuel is a ignorant fool, who should owe David an apology for his classless act!!! There I said it!!!

[Big Mac]

I think Manuel is a ignorant fool, who should owe David an apology for his classless act!!! There I said it!!!

Why? Because he's probably right?

[Big Mac]

Do you believe in everything you read?? Just because Manuel of BA(who said he was only as good as a middle reliever, if that, which was ridiculous)for whatever reason doesn't like Hernandez will probably make their top 10, along with Sickels, Baseball Prospectus and many more. He's missing one component and that's command and you should be able to teach that. You can't teach missing bats and 92-94MPH(touching 95) you can't teach. He has much more pluses than he has minuses. Of all the publications I have read in regards to Hernandez has been all good and saying pretty much the same thing and that is possible set-up, closer type, but if he can harness his command then you are looking at a No.4-5 starter, not a maybe middle reliever like Manuel said. As for Bergesen, he had a very good year and he just needs to come up with another pitch that will be effective against lefthanded hitters and when he come up with that pitch he could be a effective ML pitcher.

Have you ever considered the fact that Hernandez is 23 and still has major holes in his game? He can only throw one pitch for a strike, his slider is still a work in progress, and he pitches up in the zone. And I never said Hernandez might be a middle reliever, I believe he is at least a middle reliever and possibly a decent set-up man.

The odds are stacked way against ptichers who don't miss bats at AA, Bergesen is at best a 5th starter.

[orioole28]

Why? Because he's probably right?

No!!! Let's not be dumb here!!! What I was referring to was the fact that Manuel took a question knowingly that it wasn't David, that was pretty classless!! He has his own personal opinion on David and that's fine. But like Slappy said there are many others who think highly of David and that Manuel is an minority in his opinion fo David.

[slappy12]

Have you ever considered the fact that Hernandez is 23 and still has major holes in his game? He can only throw one pitch for a strike, his slider is still a work in progress, and he pitches up in the zone. And I never said Hernandez might be a middle reliever, I believe he is at least a middle reliever and possibly a decent set-up man.

The odds are stacked way against ptichers who don't miss bats at AA, Bergesen is at best a 5th starter.

Where do you get your information from? Manuel. . . In fact BA had said that David has the best slider in the organization. Major holes??? His major hole is his command!! His change up is a work in progress.

[Lucky Jim]

No!!! Let's not be dumb here!!! What I was referring to was the fact that Manuel took a question knowingly that it wasn't David, that was pretty classless!! He has his own personal opinion on David and that's fine. But like Slappy said there are many others who think highly of David and that Manuel is an minority in his opinion fo David.

Of course he knew it wasn't David. Those questions are just something people do in real-time chats. His analysis wasn't biased. And he didn't pretend it WAS David.

I tend to rate Hernandez better than others on here. That said, it's tough to argue with the bulk of what Manuel said:

Hernandez is more of a two-pitch guy right now, but at times both are plus, and he actually gets swings and misses with his fastball in addition to his slider.

That's indisputable. The question is: what is the probability of him correcting his flaws? I think his rapid improvement from last year is a good sign. Others - like Manuel - are more pessimistic.

[Frobby]

He's missing one component and that's command and you should be able to teach that. You can't teach missing bats and 92-94MPH(touching 95) you can't teach.

I think this is the biggest fallacy in evaluating pitchers. Command is not that easy to teach.