Analysis of 2020 Rule 5 Eligible players

[Tony-OH]

46 minutes ago, Philip said:

Some people take rule five guys because they have incredibly high ceilings, but it is my hope that we will take a guy who is major-league ready and can contribute at a legitimate level. 
Santander is the best rule five pick since Mark Canha, But Flaherty Was a valuable piece of the team for a long time.

I’m hoping we can find a third baseman with whom to replace Ruiz. We are apparently set at SS and 2B, So if we get a third baseman, I guess we could spend the next pick on a pitching possibility, but I think we already have lots of those.

I'm not sure too many of these kind of guys are available in the Rule 5 draft. Perhaps with the lost year teams will take some chances on leaving potential everyday players exposed, but typically the Orioles aren't going to fund a potential everyday 3B in the Rule 5 draft.

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Can someone please explain the Zach Pop love to me.   The pre-injury Pop had 80 minor league innings before going down.   He has never pitched in AAA.   In those 80 innings he had 25 walks and 80 strikeouts.   His numbers in AA were nice, but pedestrian.   Now, he's coming back from major surgery.   Let's assume he comes back 100%.  So what?    He certainly didn't have dominant numbers in the minors.   I don't get it.    I would not protect him.  No way.    

First of all, who cares if he hasn’t been to AAA?  That’s irrelevant.

Secondly, scouts have liked him and have said he has good stuff.  I think that is what a lot of people point to.  Good stuff, big kid (maybe has more upside in velocity??)

It’s irresponsible to not protect him.  There isn’t one good reason to not protect him because you have the spots available and you have players on the 40 man roster that have no business being on the roster. 

I would certainly agree if the roster was full of better talent, players with more upside, etc..but it’s not.

 

BTW, he was only 22 in AA in 2019 and his career MIL ERA is barely over 1.

[Tony-OH]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Can someone please explain the Zach Pop love to me.   The pre-injury Pop had 80 minor league innings before going down.   He has never pitched in AAA.   In those 80 innings he had 25 walks and 80 strikeouts.   His numbers in AA were nice, but pedestrian.   Now, he's coming back from major surgery.   Let's assume he comes back 100%.  So what?    He certainly didn't have dominant numbers in the minors.   I don't get it.    I would not protect him.  No way.    

Well since he didn't make my top 30, I'm a little more cautious on him until I see what he looks like in his return. Saying that, he is a guy that throws in the mid to high 90s with a unique delivery with a slider that can flash plus. I would have liked to have seen a higher K rate for a guy with that kind of stuff, which is way I'm still a little skeptical until I see him at high levels upon his return.

Remember the scouting reports of Cody Carroll were pretty good until I got eyes on and found his lack of ability to command the baseball a significant problem. 

[Can_of_corn]

27 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Can someone please explain the Zach Pop love to me.   The pre-injury Pop had 80 minor league innings before going down.   He has never pitched in AAA.   In those 80 innings he had 25 walks and 80 strikeouts.   His numbers in AA were nice, but pedestrian.   Now, he's coming back from major surgery.   Let's assume he comes back 100%.  So what?    He certainly didn't have dominant numbers in the minors.   I don't get it.    I would not protect him.  No way.    

You don't have to be super high on him to think he's worth protecting considering the other options.

[Number5]

16 hours ago, Philip said:

I laughed, but I was actually going to say the same thing...except I don’t think we take a pitcher, I think we take a solid 3B

While there may be a 3B worth taking a cheap flyer on available, I seriously doubt that there will be a solid 3B there.  If one is surprisingly left unprotected, I'd say one of the four teams picking ahead of us would almost surely grab him.  Solid isn't exactly a normal description of rule 5 guys.  Perhaps there are the occasional solid middle relievers there, but that's pretty much it for the most part.  Rule 5 draft is really about taking flyers and I don't think Elias will be focusing on a certain position to fill a need.  I think he will grab the guy he sees the most upside in that might possibly be able to stick with the big club for the season, regardless of position, but that's only my opinion.  Fortunately, our system is improving and taking multiple guys that are clearly better than the guys we have in our own system is no longer all that easy to do.

[LookinUp]

Isn't it easier to stash a good arm at the back of the bullpen than an extra player off the bench? 

If so, that argues that any tough choices should favor keeping our pitchers over guys like Bannon, IMO. He's just as likely to be sent back to us, and not a huge loss if he isn't. 

That said, I agree with SG that we won't likely have that kind of roster crunch.

Also, Hanifee and Peralta are the upside guys down that list, right? Anyone else? Seems like they're in a bit of a different category.

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well since he didn't make my top 30, I'm a little more cautious on him until I see what he looks like in his return. Saying that, he is a guy that throws in the mid to high 90s with a unique delivery with a slider that can flash plus. I would have liked to have seen a higher K rate for a guy with that kind of stuff, which is way I'm still a little skeptical until I see him at high levels upon his return.

Remember the scouting reports of Cody Carroll were pretty good until I got eyes on and found his lack of ability to command the baseball a significant problem. 

Carroll makes you wonder the validity of scouting.  He was awful.  Not sure how that wasn’t seen early on.  
 

I agree that Pops K numbers weren’t great but he was young for his levels and was still performing well.  Maybe there is/was more projection in his stuff where the Ks would eventually come?  Shame he had the injury because my guess is we would know by now if is Cody Carroll or a piece in our pen.

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Carroll makes you wonder the validity of scouting.  He was awful.  Not sure how that wasn’t seen early on.  
 

I agree that Pops K numbers weren’t great but he was young for his levels and was still performing well.  Maybe there is/was more projection in his stuff where the Ks would eventually come?  Shame he had the injury because my guess is we would know by now if is Cody Carroll or a piece in our pen.

I will say during my video scouting work after the trades last year, I liked Pop more than Carroll. Luke was higher on Carroll then I was, but he said he saw him better which I don't doubt. My biggest issue with Pop, besides the injury which makes him a big risk, is he just didn't miss as many bats as I would have like to have seen with a guy with his stuff.

Now, saying that, this is a guy who came a long way from his unspectacular college numbers so his improvements are real. He only  struck out 9K/9 over his career, but he's only allowed 5.4H/9 and only one home run which suggests he's tough to barrel up.

Either way, I would certainly protect him over a guy like Cole Sulser if I had reports he's healthy and his stuff is back. 

 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I will say during my video scouting work after the trades last year, I liked Pop more than Carroll. Luke was higher on Carroll then I was, but he said he saw him better which I don't doubt. My biggest issue with Pop, besides the injury which makes him a big risk, is he just didn't miss as many bats as I would have like to have seen with a guy with his stuff.

Now, saying that, this is a guy who came a long way from his unspectacular college numbers so his improvements are real. He only  struck out 9K/9 over his career, but he's only allowed 5.4H/9 and only one home run which suggests he's tough to barrel up.

Either way, I would certainly protect him over a guy like Cole Sulser if I had reports he's healthy and his stuff is back. 

 

Yea, that’s what it boils down to for me.

He may amount to nothing and if he does, that’s fine..but you can’t justify a guy like Sulser over him.  Not to mention, you actually have the spots you need anyway.

[Tony-OH]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, that’s what it boils down to for me.

He may amount to nothing and if he does, that’s fine..but you can’t justify a guy like Sulser over him.  Not to mention, you actually have the spots you need anyway.

The only way you do is if you think Pop won't get selected or won't stick. I'm not even sure if Pop is back on the mound yet. If you don't need to put Pop on the 40-man yet, it keep a spot that you can use at any time. If someone is released/DFA's during spring training next year from another team and makes a good fit here, you can DFA Sulser at any time and it's not an issue. However, if Popp is taking a spot, but not ready, that might mean Elias has to risk losing a player he wouldn't have to. Does that make sense?

[jerios55]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results

Since Richie Martin (as a #1 pick) has a lot of doubters, I was curious to see what type of "solid 3B" might look like from a historic perspective.  Clearly not an indication of success of choice this year, but there is really near no comparison.  3B is rarely picked at all.  I'd say the likelihood from this avenue is low and would expect in house or waivers are more likely.

[HowAboutThat]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I'm not sure too many of these kind of guys are available in the Rule 5 draft. Perhaps with the lost year teams will take some chances on leaving potential everyday players exposed, but typically the Orioles aren't going to fund a potential everyday 3B in the Rule 5 draft.

Sure, Otherwise they wouldn’t be eligible for the draft in the first place, but Flaherty certainly contributed In a meaningful way for several seasons, And all we need is someone who is better than Ruiz

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

The only way you do is if you think Pop won't get selected or won't stick. I'm not even sure if Pop is back on the mound yet. If you don't need to put Pop on the 40-man yet, it keep a spot that you can use at any time. If someone is released/DFA's during spring training next year from another team and makes a good fit here, you can DFA Sulser at any time and it's not an issue. However, if Popp is taking a spot, but not ready, that might mean Elias has to risk losing a player he wouldn't have to. Does that make sense?

Yes..I agree with that.  That is the one side of the argument.  That if you drop them off the 40 man later in the year, you expose them and anyone can claim him and they don’t have to keep him on the Ml roster like they do for the rule 5.

My counter to that though is that there isn’t enough talent or reason that you would have to risk exposing him during this year anyway, so let’s not do it now.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Pop is more likely to get selected but I'd argue that Ofelky Peralta has as much or more upside.    I would not protect either.   Hard throwing RH relievers are actually pretty plentiful.  We picked up Miguel Castro and Shawn Armstrong on the cheap.   Chances are that neither Pop or Peralta are ML ready although I guess a team could hide Pop on the DL for quite some time.   If I thought Pop was going to be some elite reliever maybe I'd be worried.   I don't think that.

So who would you rather protect?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I'd stick with the 3 no-brainers and Wells.   Wells is not likely to become anything special but you can't ignore the success he's had and he's been age appropriate for his levels.   I'd be much more upset if Alex Wells became a #4 starter for another team than if Zach Pop became a middle reliever/setup guy for another team.   I might also protect Bannon as he could seriously be in the 2021 mix for a starting job at some point.    I would not protect Pop, particularly coming off of the surgery and a 1+ year layoff.

I think Pop has a greater chance of being picked and a greater chance of sticking it he is selected.