Salary Arbitration makes O's infield uncertain

[foxfield]

20 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

All of those stats tell me one thing...it’s varies year to year but generally speaking, you should expect similar offensive production from your DH vs your LFer.

10-15 points here and there of OPS is a very small difference in the grand scheme of things.

Either way, Nunez outperformed all of those numbers.

This is of course a fair assessment. But still the issue isn’t whether Nunez could be a successful full time DH, think he can. I think it is that the Orioles believe their current roster has a number of folks who will need to get reps from DH and the fact is that Nunez is limited defensively. They want flexibility. They tried to trade that value and got no takers. Doesn’t mean it isn’t there. But it doesn’t mean the Orioles have made a huge error either. 
 

That the 40 man roster is still pretty full of discardable players is relevant.  This is unlikely to be important but I am sure they felt the same way moving on from Yaz. 
 

I hope they are right, but you could be. I hope in the end we revisit this and see it as you were being a little over concerned about losing a decent but one dimensional guy. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, foxfield said:

This is of course a fair assessment. But still the issue isn’t whether Nunez could be a successful full time DH, think he can. I think it is that the Orioles believe their current roster has a number of folks who will need to get reps from DH and the fact is that Nunez is limited defensively. They want flexibility. They tried to trade that value and got no takers. Doesn’t mean it isn’t there. But it doesn’t mean the Orioles have made a huge error either. 
 

That the 40 man roster is still pretty full of discardable players is relevant.  This is unlikely to be important but I am sure they felt the same way moving on from Yaz. 
 

I hope they are right, but you could be. I hope in the end we revisit this and see it as you were being a little over concerned about losing a decent but one dimensional guy. 

I don’t see how this roster is need of multiple guys DH’ing unless they plan on playing Davis a lot.

Otherwise, the current structure of this team and the offense calls for another bat.

[foxfield]

I think you are looking at it backwards. This roster is literally full of guys with incomplete skill sets and because of that versatility plays. 
 

What if Mancini needs at bats but is not good enough in the field?  That certainly isn’t a stretch. Davis will of course get some, but we all understand that those are wasted abs or at least abs taken from someone else. 
 

Both Mountcastle and Mullins could as well. I really think the Nunez move tips to Mouncastle and Mancini splitting 1b/DH.  
 

While it’s still possible that none of these options outperform your expectations of Nunez, I think the gap is mitigated by the versatility of position. And that more than any other factor is why Nunez is gone...(Really, it’s second to purse strings, but I mean realated to Covid not Oriole management)

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think you are looking at it backwards. This roster is literally full of guys with incomplete skill sets and because of that versatility plays. 
 

What if Mancini needs at bats but is not good enough in the field?  That certainly isn’t a stretch. Davis will of course get some, but we all understand that those are wasted abs or at least abs taken from someone else. 
 

Both Mountcastle and Mullins could as well. I really think the Nunez move tips to Mouncastle and Mancini splitting 1b/DH.  
 

While it’s still possible that none of these options outperform your expectations of Nunez, I think the gap is mitigated by the versatility of position. And that more than any other factor is why Nunez is gone...(Really, it’s second to purse strings, but I mean realated to Covid not Oriole management)

Yea I don’t really buy any of this except that maybe Mancini will need some DH at bats.  And in that case, Nunez can play first.  He’s not som horrendous butcher over there and iirc, the difference between a really good first baseman and a poor one isn’t that much anyway.

But other than Mancini maybe needing that time, I don’t let Nunez go for his peanuts salary for these issues you outlined.  Mullins getting at bats as a DH is a horrible thought.  

[Roll Tide]

So my guess is that Elias is trying to sign the remaining guys before the deadline 

[foxfield]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I don’t really buy any of this except that maybe Mancini will need some DH at bats.  And in that case, Nunez can play first.  He’s not som horrendous butcher over there and iirc, the difference between a really good first baseman and a poor one isn’t that much anyway.

But other than Mancini maybe needing that time, I don’t let Nunez go for his peanuts salary for these issues you outlined.  Mullins getting at bats as a DH is a horrible thought.  

Def agree re Mullins and this will be my last offer. This is good convo regarding the Os. And as I have said several times I don’t really disagree with you. A cheap player with 30 he potential seems worthy of a spot even if lacking in a viable defensive position. 
 

But I also can’t find reason to fault the Os here for choosing more versatile players over Nunez. If this was a team at the very end of a rebuild Nunez could be a cheap player to drop at 1b/Dh but the fact is they do not have long term solutions in very many spots and the rebuild is still ongoing. 
 

I feel like if the Os progress this move will not matter much either way. But I do acknowledge that this is the type of move that if the Os lag and Nunez continues to improve it will hang harshly on them. I guess at this point I just have a bit more faith in what Elias is doing. 
 

on to other things...

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Def agree re Mullins and this will be my last offer. This is good convo regarding the Os. And as I have said several times I don’t really disagree with you. A cheap player with 30 he potential seems worthy of a spot even if lacking in a viable defensive position. 
 

But I also can’t find reason to fault the Os here for choosing more versatile players over Nunez. If this was a team at the very end of a rebuild Nunez could be a cheap player to drop at 1b/Dh but the fact is they do not have long term solutions in very many spots and the rebuild is still ongoing. 
 

I feel like if the Os progress this move will not matter much either way. But I do acknowledge that this is the type of move that if the Os lag and Nunez continues to improve it will hang harshly on them. I guess at this point I just have a bit more faith in what Elias is doing. 
 

on to other things...

But here’s the thing, they didn’t really choose versatility over Nunez.  Stewart is the obviously replacement.  He can play the corner OF spots but he’s not that great out there.  He’s not much better out there than Nunez is at first.  
 

The only ways the Nunez move makes sense to me is if they want Davis and/or Mullins playing a lot more than they should.  But both of those are horrible scenarios and not really helpful to the team.  
 

We are better off with Nunez getting those at bats, cutting Davis once you know when the season is starting and having Mullins be your 4th OFer/defensive replacement/pinch runner.  

[foxfield]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But here’s the thing, they didn’t really choose versatility over Nunez.  Stewart is the obviously replacement.  He can play the corner OF spots but he’s not that great out there.  He’s not much better out there than Nunez is at first.  
 

The only ways the Nunez move makes sense to me is if they want Davis and/or Mullins playing a lot more than they should.  But both of those are horrible scenarios and not really helpful to the team.  
 

We are better off with Nunez getting those at bats, cutting Davis once you know when the season is starting and having Mullins be your 4th OFer/defensive replacement/pinch runner.  

Yeah. Maybe. Again I could be wrong but this move to me means Mancini and Mountcastle are going to share 1b/DH.
 

IF that were the case...this would make more sense. 
 

We will see....

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, foxfield said:

Yeah. Maybe. Again I could be wrong but this move to me means Mancini and Mountcastle are going to share 1b/DH.
 

IF that were the case...this would make more sense. 
 

We will see....

Well let’s go with that scenario.  If that is the case, who plays LF?  Are we moving Hays out of CF and playing Mullins everyday?  Are they going to play Stewart everyday in the OF?

I don’t think they will go to Diaz immediately.  If They feel Diaz is ready right now, the Nunez decision makes far more sense.

My guess is they will want to at least start him in AAA, if for nothing else, to steal the extra year of service time.  But if they feel that’s short lived, so be it.

I would guess he is down there for 4-8 weeks and that assumes he is healthy and performing.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well let’s go with that scenario.  If that is the case, who plays LF?  Are we moving Hays out of CF and playing Mullins everyday?  Are they going to play Stewart everyday in the OF?

I don’t think they will go to Diaz immediately.  If They feel Diaz is ready right now, the Nunez decision makes far more sense.

My guess is they will want to at least start him in AAA, if for nothing else, to steal the extra year of service time.  But if they feel that’s short lived, so be it.

I would guess he is down there for 4-8 weeks and that assumes he is healthy and performing.

It seemed last year that the more Hyde played Mullins in center the more he liked him.    Mullins began the season with very little success in the majors in his passed two seasons.   But Mullins got a chance in August when Hays got hurt.  He did pretty well and end up getting 89 plate appearances in September.

Its a SSS but in 2020 he had a 305/348/448/796 vs RHP.   And by the end of the season Hyde was saying Mullins should be considered for a Gold Glove.   That is coming a long way in a short period of time.   However, he did not hit lefties well.  Is the 38 PA he got he had a .216 OBP.  And getting on base and using his speed is his game.

So going in to 2021 I think Hyde sees Mullins as his centerfield vs righties and  a his defensive CF when the team is protecting a lead in the late innings.    This put Hays in LF vs righties and in CF vs lefties.  That is good for several reasons.  1) Hopefully there a less of a chance of Hays getting hurt in left compared to CF.  2) It puts the O's two rangiest outfielders in the field together which is good for the defense.

There is still a small amount of outfield playing time in LF vs lefties.   Diaz when is comes up will probably spell the outfielders in RF/LF and  DH.   He can play vs lefties in LF.   Until Diaz is promoted Mountcastle can move to left vs lefties.   Mancini can move to 1B and that opens DH for someone to hit vs lefties.   Maybe Urias or Stewart who does have some reverse splits.  Or Stewart could just play left for lefties.   But it is a small amount of at bat vs lefties for a short period of time.

JMO

 

[Sports Guy]

Mullins isn’t good.  Please stop talking about him like playing him a lot is a good idea.

I don’t care what Hyde said publicly.  Every manager says stuff like that.  It’s meaningless talk.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Mullins isn’t good.  Please stop talking about him like playing him a lot is a good idea.

I don’t care what Hyde said publicly.  Every manager says stuff like that.  It’s meaningless talk.

Well, I did not expect you to agree with me.  But the facts are what the facts are.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Well, I did not expect you to agree with me.  But the facts are what the facts are.

Yes, it is a fact that Mullins performed decent in a very SSS and that Hyde made those comments.  
 

It also a fact that Mullins was a terrible player for the several years before that. It’s also a fact that he is 26, so while he is young, he also is at an age where you don’t expect guys to start getting a lot better.  Another fact that his OPS was driven by bunt hits.  That’s a skill, no doubt but not one I would want to rely on year in and year out as a reason a player hits for a decent average and gets on base at a decent clip.

 

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, it is a fact that Mullins performed decent in a very SSS and that Hyde made those comments.  
 

It also a fact that Mullins was a terrible player for the several years before that. It’s also a fact that he is 26, so while he is young, he also is at an age where you don’t expect guys to start getting a lot better.  Another fact that his OPS was driven by bunt hits.  That’s a skill, no doubt but not one I would want to rely on year in and year out as a reason a player hits for a decent average and gets on base at a decent clip.

 

I give you points for saying Please.

[owknows]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Well let’s go with that scenario.  If that is the case, who plays LF?  Are we moving Hays out of CF and playing Mullins everyday?  Are they going to play Stewart everyday in the OF?

I don’t think they will go to Diaz immediately.  If They feel Diaz is ready right now, the Nunez decision makes far more sense.

My guess is they will want to at least start him in AAA, if for nothing else, to steal the extra year of service time.  But if they feel that’s short lived, so be it.

I would guess he is down there for 4-8 weeks and that assumes he is healthy and performing.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Shaw in Left.

My bigger question is 3B