Elias answers some questions.

[ChosenOne21]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Means has literally made strides with every pitch he throws in the last two seasons.    Judging him by his 2017 scouting report would be foolhardy.  

You often hear Elias and the O’s staff talking about looking for players (and staff) with a “growth mindset.”    Means has that in spades.   Always looking for ways to get better.    And that’s why you can have a serious discussion of him developing into a TOR pitcher when he was a very marginal prospect up until 2019.
 

I get that. I'm just not sure how the scouting report of 50s and 55s across the board leads to a 40 overall in the evaluation. Obviously he's a different pitcher now, my question was more about how those kind of scouting reports work

[scOtt]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

Almost forgot: he also called Means a top of rotation starter.   

And called himself a "Crafty Lefty!"

[Just Regular]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

Which team do you think Kjerstad starts with this year?   AR started in rookie ball.  Yes, that was Elias choice.  Same guy the will pick where Kjerstad goes.

If Kjerstad is who we think he is, I think that means he's near that Wieters/Adley/Vaughn/Madrigal/Torkelson/Bohm kind of tier.   If you're the elite of the NCAA elite, I feel like you probably ought to be ready to begin contributing sometime during your second full pro year.

Now on straight talent maybe he's a bit short of that, but maybe that's September 2022 not June 2022, and I'd agree if he isn't menacing any minor league arm he gets to face by late '22 it won't be a good sign.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

If Kjerstad is who we think he is, I think that means he's near that Wieters/Adley/Vaughn/Madrigal/Torkelson/Bohm kind of tier.   If you're the elite of the NCAA elite, I feel like you probably ought to be ready to begin contributing sometime during your second full pro year.

Now on straight talent maybe he's a bit short of that, but maybe that's September 2022 not June 2022, and I'd agree if he isn't menacing any minor league arm he gets to face by late '22 it won't be a good sign.

I don't think he's in that tier but I will agree that he shouldn't need a lot of time in the minors.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I get that. I'm just not sure how the scouting report of 50s and 55s across the board leads to a 40 overall in the evaluation. Obviously he's a different pitcher now, my question was more about how those kind of scouting reports work

I asked either Tony or Luke that question before and they had an answer for that, but I forget what it was.  

[Roll Tide]

14 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I get that. I'm just not sure how the scouting report of 50s and 55s across the board leads to a 40 overall in the evaluation. Obviously he's a different pitcher now, my question was more about how those kind of scouting reports work

Unfortunately you don’t typically find outlets and scouting services grading players once they are no longer prospects. I kind of wish they did so you can see the progression/regression.

[Dipper9]

Did he mention if 100 losses is the goal, or JUST the first overall pick?

Because this team sure seems destined for both.

 

[Can_of_corn]

22 minutes ago, Dipper9 said:

Did he mention if 100 losses is the goal, or JUST the first overall pick?

Because this team sure seems destined for both.

 

Folks said last year's team would lose 100.

They lost 35.

[Sports Guy]

The think they draft somewhere between 6th and 12th in the 2022 draft.

[MCO'sFan]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The think they draft somewhere between 6th and 12th in the 2022 draft.

I agree with this. I think the pitching takes another step forward. 

[Just Regular]

On the Means TOR comment, here is a comp beyond what I feel is probably even the best case scenario we can hope for.  It is to a younger pitcher, but I am giving Means a little credit for maybe being a pitching JD Martinez or Justin Turner, the Growth Mindset All-Star who can shape his own aging curve at a far above League Average level.

Means is an 11th Round NCAA big state school guy who across his Age 26-27 seasons worked 200 innings at a 4.67 FIP (damaged significantly by 2020's astronomical home run rate).

The other is a 7th Round NCAA big state school guy who across his Age 24-25 seasons worked 240 innings (1 shortened season due to call-up instead of covid) at a 4.78 FIP.

They share a couple other similar attributes which would make it too easy to spell out straightaway.   I think I think if you are that 10th round give or take BMOC who pitches two decent years in the Show, you are probably a late 1st rounder at worst in the cosmic re-do of your Draft Year.

[Roll Tide]

On 12/12/2020 at 4:55 PM, OrioleDog said:

If Kjerstad is who we think he is, I think that means he's near that Wieters/Adley/Vaughn/Madrigal/Torkelson/Bohm kind of tier.   If you're the elite of the NCAA elite, I feel like you probably ought to be ready to begin contributing sometime during your second full pro year.

Now on straight talent maybe he's a bit short of that, but maybe that's September 2022 not June 2022, and I'd agree if he isn't menacing any minor league arm he gets to face by late '22 it won't be a good sign.

Who is we???? I think he's the 10th best player in the draft where he was selected. People seem to forget that he was selected in part to save money to be spent in later rounds. MW and AR are close to the top selections and I dont think they belong in the same sentence.

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Who is we???? I think he's the 10th best player in the draft where he was selected. People seem to forget that he was selected in part to save money to be spent in later rounds. MW and AR are close to the top selections and I dont think they belong in the same sentence.

And what is your level of expertise to say he is the 10th best player?  What info do you have to suggest that?  How much time did you see of the other 9?

And “we” is probably the Os and the Os obviously think that.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And what is your level of expertise to say he is the 10th best player?  What info do you have to suggest that?  How much time did you see of the other 9?

And “we” is probably the Os and the Os obviously think that.

Unless Orioledog works for the O's I think he was trying to include the Oriole fandom.

[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And what is your level of expertise to say he is the 10th best player?  What info do you have to suggest that?  How much time did you see of the other 9?

And “we” is probably the Os and the Os obviously think that.

No ... The Orioles strategy was clear an under slot player so they could invest that dough in the 4th and 5th rounds. The scenario played out that way so please dont try to claim that he was the BPA at #2. You can't have it both ways!

We is the mouse in his pocket. There is no telling exactly what the Orioles thought. They would never tell you that they took a lower ranked player to save money to overslot guys later. What they did was obviously lip service.

Was Kjerstand the 10th best player? Was he closer on the Orioles list to 2 than 10? I dont think we will ever know....But we know they saved 2.5 million by selected him rather than Martin