Orioles not likely to bid on Ha-Seong Kim

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

1) ok whatever... put up or shut up. Interesting no one ever has the cahoonies to take me up on it... Wil you? Or just continue with your I’m always right and everyone else is wrong schtick?

That’s fair value... so now your argument is a moving target... I get it

2) so double the odds ... your funny

 

 

My argument isnt a moving target.  I never once commented on how much WAR I thought he would be.  
 

You are the one who set that and I agreed with you that he could do it.  But averaging 1 WAR a year, even if it makes the contract “worth it” is a stupid way to spend money.
 

How is that moving the topic?

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

1) ok whatever... put up or shut up. Interesting no one ever has the cahoonies to take me up on it... Wil you? Or just continue with your I’m always right and everyone else is wrong schtick?

That’s fair value... so now your argument is a moving target... I get it

2) so double the odds ... your funny

 

 

Why would I bet on something I know absolutely nothing about?    I have zero knowledge or basis to judge how good a player Kim is.    

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

My argument isnt a moving target.  I never once commented on how much WAR I thought he would be.  
 

You are the one who set that and I agreed with you that he could do it.  But averaging 1 WAR a year, even if it makes the contract “worth it” is a stupid way to spend money.
 

How is that moving the topic?

1 WAR is equal to 8.2 million. FAIR value would be 32.4 million over 4 years. If he performs that well you would break even on the contract. I suspect he will be worth somewhere between 1 and 2 million per season. If he is you’ve gambled and won.

To bet your asking for 2 WAR per season which would be an extremely good value base on what you are paying. 
 

I get that you don’t get the same value as a draftable player who gives you control years for minimal money and that wasn’t my point.

Asking for 2 war per season when you are paying for 1 seems unfair on your part. Sure you’d happy with a 2 WAR return....So would I! Your buying still buying a lottery ticket the same as you would trading for AA prospects by trading Machado. Sure it costs more and the risk is higher. But, I’m not advocating that you get a roster full of these guys. 

This is really no different than signing a guy like Wei Yin Chen at today’s prices. He wasn’t a guarantee when he was signed.
 

Taking a shot on a guy like this isn’t a stupid use of resources any more than giving a 100 15-16 year old Dominican players $500,000 each and getting zippo for 99 of them. 
 

I’ll give you 5.9 WAR with the bet if your game....But I’m not giving you a 2 TD advantage 

 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Why would I bet on something I know absolutely nothing about?    
 

I have zero knowledge or basis to judge how good a player Kim is.    

I really wasn’t asking you if you wanted to bet....Although I think it would be a fun night sitting and talking baseball with you. Honestly I believe it would be fun with Rob as well. 

Your last statement is perfectly fine and I have no argument with it. But, if you were here arguing that Kim won’t be worth the contract that he was signed for by the Padres it would be a different story. 

 

[Roll Tide]

@Sports Guy Where do you think Kim is added to the Padres top 30 if he’s added before the season?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I really wasn’t asking you if you wanted to bet....Although I think it would be a fun night sitting and talking baseball with you. Honestly I believe it would be fun with Rob as well. 

Your last statement is perfectly fine and I have no argument with it. But, if you were here arguing that Kim won’t be worth the contract that he was signed for by the Padres it would be a different story. 

 

Let's say Kim puts up four 2 win seasons.  Total investment is going to be about 37M for those four years.  So he's basically costing you a bit over the going rate.

Now the O's are not worried about wins next season, so the two wins he's worth in 2021 isn't something the O's should be paying 8M for. 

Assuming the O's value wins in 2022-2024 he still would be a poor signing, for the O's, at free agent prices.

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Let's say Kim puts up four 2 win seasons.  Total investment is going to be about 37M for those four years.  So he's basically costing you a bit over the going rate.

Now the O's are not worried about wins next season, so the two wins he's worth in 2021 isn't something the O's should be paying 8M for. 

Assuming the O's value wins in 2022-2024 he still would be a poor signing, for the O's, at free agent prices.

How ?  1 WAR is worth $8.2 million = 16.4 million per season

[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

@Sports Guy Where do you think Kim is added to the Padres top 30 if he’s added before the season?

He’s currently #3 on this list ...MLB hasn’t added him yet

https://madfriars.com/2020/12/30/madfriars-top-25-prospects-for-2021/

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

How ?  1 WAR is worth $8.2 million = 16.4 million per season

Because I meant 1 and hit 2 because I'm an idiot.

 

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because I meant 1 and hit 2 because I'm an idiot.

 

I think four 1 WAR seasons is probably his floor. I know there is no value to the Orioles this season or next. If he produces a couple 2 to 2.5 WAR seasons he could probably return a nice package or extended and here when your competitive. It’s another way for our team to add talent.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think four 1 WAR seasons is probably his floor. I know there is no value to the Orioles this season or next. If he produces a couple 2 to 2.5 WAR seasons he could probably return a nice package or extended and here when your competitive. It’s another way for our team to add talent.

As a middle infielder he'd be too old for me to consider extending him.

[Sports Guy]

Again, paying 7, he’ll even 5M for 1 WAR is a poor use of resources.

In the shortened 2020 season, 109 offensive players put up 1 WAR or higher.  Another 30 put up .8 or .9 WAR.  That was with a minimum of 100 PA.  There were 310 players who had 100 PA.  So, more than 1/3 of all MLB hitters put up at least 1 WAR and another another 10% almost did it.

 

In 2019, 260 Offensive players had at least  1 WAR.  That was out of 510 hitters who had at least 100 PA.  Another 14 were at .8 or .9.

This is obviously ignoring pitchers but you should get the idea here.  A 1 WAR isn’t a difficult number to achieve and having a 40ishM commitment to get that “achievement” isn’t worth it even if he ends up being “worth it”.  This is where WAR and the value of a win is bs to me.  No one would look at paying a 1 WAR player 7+ million as a good deal.

 

[Just Regular]

25 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

1 WAR is equal to 8.2 million.

I long for this return to normalcy, but I don't think we've ever been this far into the Twilight Zone as to what will actually happen in the next year or two.

I think the players are going to upgrade their strategic targets from "Charter Buses on spring training road trips" or whatever kind of trinkets were in the mix last time.   Nobody is paying for past performance anymore.  I guess the FA spend/win might stay around 8 even if twentysomethings get a little more access to it should ownership and the MLBPA find agreement on a way to pay Adley his money more while his on field performance merits it.

Plus there's the level of if Sig Mejdal can sit in a dugout some year and learn how to talk sensitively to the DL Hall's of the world, then use that experience to build a department that systematically helps any pitcher born in 1997 become more "good" than they may have otherwise been, does that guy need Arb2 money in the current setup?

Snell and Darvish are exhilirating moves, but this one feels iffier.   Kim has age in his favor, but for '21 Galvis or Schoop might make about as good a 2B.  On Padres Hangout I'm probably hoping he's a 10th man super sub, but with the hype I'm guessing the Dodgers imagined wish he plays 150 games will come true.   I think part of the deal here though is just like we didn't with Hyun-Soo Kim, you kind of need to write him into the lineup and see.   I'm sure Tingler will outdo Buck there.

I'd love to be able to trade them Andrelton Simmons this July if he sucks (they won't want Freddy Galvis).

[forphase1]

Because I don't think he's going to be that good.   And yes,  I do think if less money can be spent now it will increase what's available later.  Regardless, one thing we DON'T need for our hopefully soon to be competitive window are guys who aren't producing relative to what they are being paid.   I don't think he produces enough to justify that price,  and if I'm right, then we'd be overpaying, and that could made adding more to the payroll different.  While it certainly wouldn't be Davis bad or anything, having any underperforming contracts could make it more difficult to afford talent we need to add when the time is right.  If I was the Os, I'd have been interested at the right price,  but it was clear from the beginning that the price wasn't going to be right IMO.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I really wasn’t asking you if you wanted to bet....Although I think it would be a fun night sitting and talking baseball with you. Honestly I believe it would be fun with Rob as well. 

Your last statement is perfectly fine and I have no argument with it. But, if you were here arguing that Kim won’t be worth the contract that he was signed for by the Padres it would be a different story. 

 

Hopefully we will get that opportunity.