Who's the #11 prospect?

[TJ Wrangler]

Moore was not a top 5-10 guy in the Cubs system.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2007/263251.html

Before the 2007 season, Baseball America had Scott Moore as the Cub's number 7 prospect.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/plus/plusarticle.asp?ID=1275

And to support my argument, after our 2007 season, Orioleshangout ranked Moore as our number 15 prospect.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265361.html

Baseball America also has him missing from our top 10.

Granted, I'm not trying to argue that Moore is a top ten guy or that he'll be anything more than a utility guy, but I'm just curious how these prospects seem to drop as soon as we get ahold of them. Was Moore's stock really falling that much before get got him in the Trax deal?

[Frobby]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2007/263251.html

Before the 2007 season, Baseball America had Scott Moore as the Cub's number 7 prospect.

http://www.orioleshangout.com/plus/plusarticle.asp?ID=1275

And to support my argument, after our 2007 season, Orioleshangout ranked Moore as our number 15 prospect.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265361.html

Baseball America also has him missing from our top 10.

Granted, I'm not trying to argue that Moore is a top ten guy or that he'll be anything more than a utility guy, but I'm just curious how these prospects seem to drop as soon as we get ahold of them. Was Moore's stock really falling that much before get got him in the Trax deal?

Moore went straight to the Orioles after the Cubs trade, so our minor league system had no chance to ruin him. He was ranked 15th by OH at the end of the season. So if he was 7th in the Cubs system to me that just means their system was weak at the time that list was made.

[TJ Wrangler]

Moore went straight to the Orioles after the Cubs trade, so our minor league system had no chance to ruin him. He was ranked 15th by OH at the end of the season. So if he was 7th in the Cubs system to me that just means their system was weak at the time that list was made.

Fair enough. Just a fun fact I was trying to point out.

[Mackus]

Patton or Hernandez here most likely.

If Spoone's health concerns were largely overlooked, then I think Patton should get a break too, I think he's the pick here.

[hoosiers]

Moore went straight to the Orioles after the Cubs trade, so our minor league system had no chance to ruin him. He was ranked 15th by OH at the end of the season. So if he was 7th in the Cubs system to me that just means their system was weak at the time that list was made.

This is not an appropriate conclusion as the time frames are different. Moore began the season 7th on the Cubs prospect list, but it is doubtful he would have finished there.

[Ruzious]

And I go with Hernandez here due to a potentially dominant 2-pitch mix that could play very well in the back-half of a ML bullpen.

That's exactly why I don't go with Hernandez this high.

I'd go for the lefty who's probably a mid rotation starter (at least a 4th starter) if he comes back strong - Patton. A 2.99 career minor league ERA through 445 innings all the way through the PCL at age 21... that's pretty good - even if his SO's decreased.

Bergesen would be up there - except he hasn't shown he can get lefties out - he needs to develop a breaking pitch to do that.

[mikezpen]

If the organization deems Bergeson as having a real chance of sticking this spring, he could sneak in as a dark horse over someone like Hernandez who has the better arm but is further removed from ML consideration right now. I think I'll still stick w/Hernandez though, based on his talent.

[Moose Milligan]

Going with Bergesen.

[Frobby]

This is not an appropriate conclusion as the time frames are different. Moore began the season 7th on the Cubs prospect list, but it is doubtful he would have finished there.

I'm not trying to dissect the Cubs system. My point is that Moore was never that good a prospect, and the Orioles haven't somehow ruined him. He'd been in our system a month when OH ranked him 15th, so he just never really was a top prospect even if he was ranked 7th in the Cubs system at one time.

[Stotle]

That's exactly why I don't go with Hernandez this high.

I'd go for the lefty who's probably a mid rotation starter (at least a 4th starter) if he comes back strong - Patton. A 2.99 career minor league ERA through 445 innings all the way through the PCL at age 21... that's pretty good - even if his SO's decreased.

Bergesen would be up there - except he hasn't shown he can get lefties out - he needs to develop a breaking pitch to do that.

Serious shoulder issue. I don't think Hernandez will start but he's not far from being an effective relief pitcher in the ML right now. I place a premium on the surer thing, which for me is Hernandez until Patton is getting hitters out again.

They're close for me, though, so I don't have an issue with Patton first.

[LookinUp]

Does anyone have any thoughts on where Patton might deserve to be if he hadn't been injured? I understand he likely wouldn't be eligible. Let's ignore that and just talk about talent. Is it safe to say he'd have come in between 5 and 8?

[Ruzious]

Serious shoulder issue. I don't think Hernandez will start but he's not far from being an effective relief pitcher in the ML right now. I place a premium on the surer thing, which for me is Hernandez until Patton is getting hitters out again.

They're close for me, though, so I don't have an issue with Patton first.

The problem I have with Hernandez is that he's not a sure thing - because he walks too many batters - like Mickolio (sp?).

[Ruzious]

Does anyone have any thoughts on where Patton might deserve to be if he hadn't been injured? I understand he likely wouldn't be eligible. Let's ignore that and just talk about talent. Is it safe to say he'd have come in between 5 and 8?

I'd put him ahead of Reimold and Rowell and equal with Snyder.

[Stotle]

The problem I have with Hernandez is that he's not a sure thing - because he walks too many batters - like Mickolio (sp?).

Eh, I take the overpowering stuff over the command pitcher with labrum issues. Again, I wouldn't put Hernandez in the rotation, but out of the pen I have him slightly ahead of the current-state Patton.

[TGO]

I went with Patton. The injury is a serious concern but with Spoone going 8, it doesn't seem fair to drop Patton lower than 11. I probably would have had him at 9.

It goes to show you the improvement of our system, though. Three or four years ago, all three of Patton, Hernandez, and Bergesen might have made the top 10.