20 Birthdays

[Just Regular]

Seasonal age in 2022

Age 30 season: Trey Mancini 3.18.1992

Age 29 season: John Means 4.24.1993

<BFF Carlos Correa 9.22.1994>

Age 27 season: Anthony Santander 10.9.1994, Hunter Harvey 12.9.1994, Keegan Akin 4.1.1995

Age 26 season: Austin Hays 7.5.1995, Michael Baumann 9.10.1995, Dean Kremer 1.7.1996, Zac Lowther 4.30.1996

Age 25 season: Kyle Bradish 9.12.1996, Yusniel Diaz 10.7.1996, Ryan Mountcastle 2.18.1997, Terrin Vavra 5.12.1997, Kevin Smith 5.13.1997

14 supporting cast pieces

AGE 24 SEASON: ADLEY RUTSCHMAN 2.6.1998 - standing alone in his seasonal cohort

Age 23 season: DL Hall 9.19.1998, Heston Kjerstad 2.12.1999, Jordan Westburg 2.18.1999

Age 22 season: Grayson Rodriguez 11.16.1999

Age 21 season: Gunnar Henderson 6.29.2001 (ever so narrowly missing cutoff to call it his Age 20 season)

Mullins, Stewart, Scott, Tate and a lightly used backup catcher leave just one roster spot available if baseball playing at 26/team - Kjerstad/Westburg/Gunnar very likely not OD ready, leaving SS vacant, as is New Year's tradition around here.   Confident Chris Davis will find 60-day DL somehow in spring 2022.  Age 24 feels too prime-adjacent not to maximize, was Wieters's 3rd best, and the eve of Posey's MVP year when he had his big injury.   In Posey's case, if we set our seven at 23-29 instead of finagling 24-30, we lose a 4-win age 30.   

 

[jabba72]

I dont think you'll get much argument Rutschman will be playing opening day 2022. The mans already 23 years old now or soon will be. He needs to be put on the fast track like a week at Frederick, Bowie etc. Assuming he looks ready he could be called up in '21. But that does go against Elias "tank now" strategy, but 2022 is when things should get interesting around the team. You dont want Rutschman playing opening day for another 100 loss team. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

I dont think you'll get much argument Rutschman will be playing opening day 2022. The mans already 23 years old now or soon will be. He needs to be put on the fast track like a week at Frederick, Bowie etc. Assuming he looks ready he could be called up in '21. But that does go against Elias "tank now" strategy, but 2022 is when things should get interesting around the team. You dont want Rutschman playing opening day for another 100 loss team. 

I could see a scenario in which he's kept down all of 2021 and held back for another year of team control in 2022, depending on how the CBA discussions go.

[jabba72]

I wasnt thinking about the CBA discussions but it would be a bad look if they did keep him back. Im a little worried about how improved the team will be in 2022 also.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, jabba72 said:

I wasnt thinking about the CBA discussions but it would be a bad look if they did keep him back. Im a little worried about how improved the team will be in 2022 also.  

Most teams don't seem to care about the optics.  Look how bad the Cubs look right now.  You think they care?

[Just Regular]

There's still plenty of burden of proof on Rutschman.  But if his talent is what we've hoped, and our development practices are now at least fair to middling if not outright good, it perhaps ought to play out that any Eastern League league average pitcher has big problems right away.

I'm sure there's some Captain America trope driving it, but I'm hoping for 2004 David Wright as a mid-case expectation.

Entering 2004 he was like the #15 prospect in baseball, whereas Adley looking at #1 or #2.   Wright was two years younger, but I think that's position adjustment mostly, plus we have this blip thing.

The script runs like two months AA cartoon numbers, one month AAA "mastering a level", three months Show.   The MLB Orioles might enjoy 75% participation there if we get a June-September season.   Come 4th of July I'll probably be posting Fernando Tatis incorrect swing decision clips here if things get too silly.

The monster in the closet is if Billionaire Millionaire haggling stops April May minor league play.   There are a good dozen pitchers 20 starts somewhere would do nicely for, should you want 25 in '22, 30 in '23, etc.

[Sports Guy]

If it’s a normal season and Rutschman is healthy and as good as they claim him to be, he will be up in 2021.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

If it’s a normal season and Rutschman is healthy and as good as they claim him to be, he will be up in 2021.

Is this a normal season?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Is this a normal season?

We don't know yet.

[Sports Guy]

23 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Is this a normal season?

I will define normal (2021 normal at least) as them playing MiL ball by the end of May.  If they do that, I think he plays here.

[Frobby]

As to Rutschman, let’s see how he does.    If he puts up Wieters 2008 MiL numbers he could get called up.    If he’s merely putting up solid numbers, maybe not.   If he actually struggles a bit, well, heaven help us.    

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As to Rutschman, let’s see how he does.    If he puts up Wieters 2008 MiL numbers he could get called up.    If he’s merely putting up solid numbers, maybe not.   If he actually struggles a bit, well, heaven help us.    

If he struggles, he goes from franchise savior to hoping he gave us what Wieters did, which was a disappointment compared to expectations, scouting reports, etc...

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

If he struggles, he goes from franchise savior to hoping he gave us what Wieters did, which was a disappointment compared to expectations, scouting reports, etc...

If you had told me on the day he was drafted that Wieters would have the career he actually had, I would have been pretty satisfied with it.    But after his insane 2008 season in the minors, expectations just went through the roof.   

I would be disappointed if Rutschman had Wieters’ career.    But the odds he exceeds it probably aren’t as high as we think.   
 

[Just Regular]

The best Rutschman teams depend most on him zipping past the Wieters foothills up Mt. Bryce Strasburg.   3-win FG, or 7-win TD?

Whoever Grayson becomes and if we buy the Scherzer/Lindor type character reasonably briskly (or ever) I think get the podium.

The dumb 60 game thing depriving us of picking 2nd behind the Pirates may not hurt much in the end - certainly the Nationals nailing Rendon at the end of their 1/1/6 sequence was key to their peak.  I think we can safely see from here neither Kjerstad nor 1-5 will be anywhere near as special a talent, so Adley probably (Grayson?) won't have the security blanket of a young teammate about as good as him.

Their Year 4 Giolito became trade bait.  If in the spring Rocker is like "I am Strasburg, behold", the Pirates always had us.

But with apologies to Ramos and Desmond, all those Nationals teams had before the three pillars and Buying Guys were Zimmerman(n)s, and I think perhaps Means, Mountcastle, Grayson, Hall, Baumann, Santander give a better starting point than that.  I do expect more from our B pitchers than John Lannan, Drew Storen, Ross Detwiler, etc. ever gave.   The Gio Gonzalez trade bar is high for later in the process.   I think the Juan Soto we hope Koby finds someday is like 10 years old today.

To audit myself, scan of young Ramos/Desmond on Nats

Desmond 24-29: 1.1, 1.4, 3.4, 4.4, 4.1, 2.0

Ramos 23-28: 2.1, 0.3, 2.5, 1.4, 1.0, 3.0

The Z guys were pushing out like 3-4 wins/season apiece, though Ryan was mostly done as a star by the time the teams got really good.  I give Peak Mountcastle a shot to match post-peak Zimmerman for say 2023-2025.