2021 BA Orioles Top 30 Prospects

[LTO's]

Want to preface this by saying I recommend anyone who is interested in the Orioles farm system or minor league baseball in general check out a BA subscription. They have grades, scouting reports and video for most of these guys, and Jon Meoli, who I consider to be the best current Orioles writer, contributes to the site. The ranking is as follows:

1.  Adley Rutschman
2. Grayson Rodriguez
3. D.L. Hall
4. Heston Kjerstad
5. Ryan Mountcastle
6. Gunnar Henderson
7. Yusniel Diaz
8. Michael Baumann
9. Dean Kremer
10. Keegan Akin
11. Jordan Westburg
12. Kyle Bradish
13. Hunter Harvey
14. Bruce Zimmermann
15. Adam Hall
16. Jahmai Jones
17. Kevin Smith
18. Zac Lowther
19. Alex Wells
20. Hudson Haskin
21. Luis Gonzalez
22. Terrin Vavra
23. Ryan McKenna
24. Drew Rom
25. Kyle Stowers
26. Garrett Stallings
27. Anthony Servideo
28. Coby Mayo
29. Tyler Nevin
30. Darell Hernaiz
 

Top of the list is very similar to every other outlet. Things that I consider interesting:

Kyle Bradish all the way up to 12. This is based on glowing reports/data from the summer camp. The Bundy trade did not look so good considering the numbers he put up last year, but Bradish becoming a productive major leaguer would change things considerably.

International signing Luis Gonzalez at 21. Crown jewel of the 2019 class and the only international signing currently on the list (that will change soon). He was brought over to the instructional league and was apparently hitting home runs further than anybody. Obviously we need to see him play but the Orioles believe he has plus power and will play stateside next year.

Overall, the depth of the system is genuinely impressive. I expect 5+ players to graduate off this list but new international signings, high draft picks and possible trades should have the O's in a similar position by the end of the year.

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

The Bundy trade did not look so good considering the numbers he put up last year, but Bradish becoming a productive major leaguer would change things considerably.

This belongs in another thread, but I am not sold on Bundy yet. I wish him all the best, but he didn't really pitch against anybody last year. He made 11 starts last year, and only one was against a team whose offense was better than league average in runs scored (the Giants, who smoked him). 

He had equally good 11 or more game stretches in 2019  (11 games May 4 - July 5), 2018 (14 games March 29 - June 11), and 2017 (14 games April 4 - June 14). The 2017 and 2018 stretches were, like 2020, the first starts of his season.

I am rooting for him, I hope he puts together a full season this year going into his free agent year, but I need to see more to believe.

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

This belongs in another thread, but I am not sold on Bundy yet. I wish him all the best, but he didn't really pitch against anybody last year. He made 11 starts last year, and only one was against a team whose offense was better than league average in runs scored (the Giants, who smoked him). 

He had equally good 11 or more game stretches in 2019  (11 games May 4 - July 5), 2018 (14 games March 29 - June 11), and 2017 (14 games April 4 - June 14). The 2017 and 2018 stretches were, like 2020, the first starts of his season.

I am rooting for him, I hope he puts together a full season this year going into his free agent year, but I need to see more to believe.

No disagreements here although I still suspect he'll be better next year than he was toward the end of his time in Baltimore. He really was a classic victim of Camden Yards. I still think people weren't thrilled with the return before Bundy even pitched for the Angels. Bradish slotted in at 26th according to MLB pipleline after the trade and was 29th after the draft. Moving to 12 is a huge jump and gives me some hope that Elias is able to find value in these other teams' guys.

[Frobby]

That’s pretty aggressive on Bradish, but I hope they’re right.  Matt Blood sure talked him up.   

[wildcard]

Lowther is way too low.

[Jammer7]

Solid and defensible list, most of it anyway. Two players, beyond Bradish, caught my eye immediately.

Bruce Zimmermann at #14 is interestingly much higher than anywhere else. A little surprised to see him up there, but ok.

Hunter Harvey has just over a year (1.047) of MLB service time, according to Fangraphs/Rosterresource. How can he still be a Rookie? Baseball reference has his rookie status as exceeded, https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=harvehu01&year=2019&t=p Only 15 MLB innings in 17 games. He has to have had more than 45 days on the active roster, no? And his rank of #13 is my one disagreement. He's not that guy anymore, not right now anyway.

 

[LTO's]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

Solid and defensible list, most of it anyway. Two players, beyond Bradish, caught my eye immediately.

Bruce Zimmermann at #14 is interestingly much higher than anywhere else. A little surprised to see him up there, but ok.

Hunter Harvey has just over a year (1.047) of MLB service time, according to Fangraphs/Rosterresource. How can he still be a Rookie? Baseball reference has his rookie status as exceeded, https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=harvehu01&year=2019&t=p Only 15 MLB innings in 17 games. He has to have had more than 45 days on the active roster, no? And his rank of #13 is my one disagreement. He's not that guy anymore, not right now anyway.

 

Interesting, where would you rank him? I don't think anything in his time in the big leagues has shown me that he doesn't have elite set up man/closer potential. I think that deserves a top 15 prospect ranking. 

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

Interesting, where would you rank him? I don't think anything in his time in the big leagues has shown me that he doesn't have elite set up man/closer potential. I think that deserves a top 15 prospect ranking. 

If he is still a rookie, somewhere down around 27 or so, if at all. I would rather have him over Sedlock, ceiling-wise. He cannot stay healthy. That, and his struggles in 2020 take him out of there for me. No other lists I am aware of have him listed in the top 30 currently. But perhaps they all think he is no longer eligible like me. I also do not like to rank relievers very highly unless they are dominant and durable. 

His ceiling is that of a legitimate closer, sure. But his ability to get near his ceiling is in doubt until he shows he can stay healthy for more than a few months. His 2020 stats are pretty poor. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/hunter-harvey/15507/stats?position=P

[MurphDogg]

47 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

If he is still a rookie, somewhere down around 27 or so, if at all. I would rather have him over Sedlock, ceiling-wise. He cannot stay healthy. That, and his struggles in 2020 take him out of there for me. No other lists I am aware of have him listed in the top 30 currently. But perhaps they all think he is no longer eligible like me. I also do not like to rank relievers very highly unless they are dominant and durable. 

His ceiling is that of a legitimate closer, sure. But his ability to get near his ceiling is in doubt until he shows he can stay healthy for more than a few months. His 2020 stats are pretty poor. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/hunter-harvey/15507/stats?position=P

He threw 8 and 2/3rds innings. Walked 2, struck out 6.

Allowed 4 runs.

His ERA was 2.35 three days before the season ended.

[Jammer7]

43 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

He threw 8 and 2/3rds innings. Walked 2, struck out 6.

Allowed 4 runs.

His ERA was 2.35 three days before the season ended.

Yes, and his velocity was down and his split was not effective at all. His k/9 was down significantly from about 15 to 6. An elite potential closer with 6 k/9? SSS and all, but the big thing is he just has not been healthy. If he stays healthy and throws at least 40 innings this year, then we'll see. I'm not throwing bricks at anyone who likes him more than me, but that was my reasoning. 

[wildcard]

Rylan Bannon did not make the list.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Rylan Bannon did not make the list.

Neither did Konner Wade,  I'm shocked. 

[MurphDogg]

8 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Yes, and his velocity was down and his split was not effective at all. His k/9 was down significantly from about 15 to 6. An elite potential closer with 6 k/9? SSS and all, but the big thing is he just has not been healthy. If he stays healthy and throws at least 40 innings this year, then we'll see. I'm not throwing bricks at anyone who likes him more than me, but that was my reasoning. 

You are talking about a K/9 over fewer than 10 innings. And comparing it to a K/9 from fewer than 7 innings.

His fastball was down. From 98.3 MPH to 97.3. He is clearly broken.

Drawing any conclusions from 2020 is foolish.

[Jammer7]

51 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

You are talking about a K/9 over fewer than 10 innings. And comparing it to a K/9 from fewer than 7 innings.

His fastball was down. From 98.3 MPH to 97.3. He is clearly broken.

Drawing any conclusions from 2020 is foolish.

That would be foolish, it’s a good thing I didn’t do that. He did spend the whole two month season as clearly not the same guy, even he and Hyde said that. Harvey himself has spoken about his struggles to find himself in 2020. 

As I said in my original post, he cannot stay healthy. It is the same thing every year (for the past 4 years?) with him. At some point, he just isn’t a top prospect anymore. He has also been protected, limited innings and careful not to use him on back to back nights, etc... If you think he’s a top 15 prospect currently, cool. He is not in my top 30. I will root for him to become healthy and dominant like he was once purported to be capable of being. 

[Frobby]

21 hours ago, wildcard said:

Lowther is way too low.

I can’t think of another list that has Zimmermann higher than Lowther.