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Who's the #15 prospect?


Tony-OH

Who's the number fifteen prospect?  

137 members have voted

  1. 1. Who's the number fifteen prospect?

    • Xavier Avery
      50
    • Brad Bergesen
      57
    • Tyler Henson
      17
    • Greg Miclat
      5
    • Lou Montanez
      8


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http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1498497&postcount=22

Bradley Bergesen struck out 4.38 batters/9ip against 'AA' competition (148 ip)

Of the 269 major leaguers who pitched 60 or more innings this year, only 13 struck out fewer than 4.38/9ip.

Below are those 13 pitchers, their 2008 MLB ERA's, and their career 'AA' K's/9ip:

Code:

Name			2008 MLB ERA		K/9ip against 'AA' competitionBrad Bergesen					4.38Brian Burres		6.04			7.34Fausto Carmona		5.44			5.96Kenny Rogers		5.70			8.21Zach Duke		4.82			6.31Aaron Laffey		4.23			5.38Jon Garland		4.90			7.40Paul Byrd		4.60			6.91Aaron Cook		3.96			5.38Carlos Silva		6.46			4.97Kyle Kendrick		5.49			5.53Sidney Ponson		5.04			6.64Livan Hernandez		6.05			8.97Greg Reynolds		8.13			6.22

Either Bergesen will improve his ability to strike out batters, or he will not be successful. I don't say that because I have some infatuation with strikeouts. I say that because, statistically speaking, it's accurate. I don't know of any pitchers with Bergesen's K/9ip against 'AA' who have been successful for an extended career in the majors.

After seeing this post, I really dont think Bergesen will be higher than 18.

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I think a case could be made for everyone but Miclat.

Still think the HS player's upside (and with Avery the upside is significant) trumps the other guys on this list.

I expect the Os (and by correlation, Tony) like Henson and Bergesen, but I will defer on them for one more quality 08 draft pick.

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I want to say Montanez or maybe Bergesen, but I had thought Avery would rank somewhere around 15 and it looks like Tony is placing quite a premium on upside even if it's a little unproven at this point (Hoes & Bundy), so I voted for Avery here. He showed that he still has some work to do on his approach at the plate, but he didn't embarrass himself and even flashed his potential. And he was possibly the best athlete among the high schoolers taken in the 2008 draft.

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http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1498497&postcount=22

After seeing this post, I really dont think Bergesen will be higher than 18.

Rats. I made that post, and I voted Bergesen for #14. :)

I wouldn't have had Bergesen at #14, but I was betting that Tony and OH did. And to be fair to Bergesen, he just might figure it out. Someone in that thread brought up Jamie Moyer, who struck out 4.75/9ip in his first 'AA' season, and then came back and struck out 9/9ip in 40+ innings the next year before being promoted.

Also, as long as we're cherry-picking one stat, probably a better stand-alone stat than K/9ip is K/BB (not that there's any such thing as a good stand-alone stat). And Bergesen's K/BB was solid.

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I was one of the very few who went with Montanez. Wouldn't be surprised if I was wrong, but I have been right on every pick except when I picked Tillman at 2 over Matusz and Snyder over Rowell at 5.

Of course, now that I actually typed that, I fully expect #15 to be somebody else. :D

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