Jump to content

Who's the #15 prospect?


Tony-OH

Who's the number fifteen prospect?  

137 members have voted

  1. 1. Who's the number fifteen prospect?

    • Xavier Avery
      50
    • Brad Bergesen
      57
    • Tyler Henson
      17
    • Greg Miclat
      5
    • Lou Montanez
      8


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 42
  • Created
  • Last Reply

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1498497&postcount=22

Bradley Bergesen struck out 4.38 batters/9ip against 'AA' competition (148 ip)

Of the 269 major leaguers who pitched 60 or more innings this year, only 13 struck out fewer than 4.38/9ip.

Below are those 13 pitchers, their 2008 MLB ERA's, and their career 'AA' K's/9ip:

Code:

Name			2008 MLB ERA		K/9ip against 'AA' competitionBrad Bergesen					4.38Brian Burres		6.04			7.34Fausto Carmona		5.44			5.96Kenny Rogers		5.70			8.21Zach Duke		4.82			6.31Aaron Laffey		4.23			5.38Jon Garland		4.90			7.40Paul Byrd		4.60			6.91Aaron Cook		3.96			5.38Carlos Silva		6.46			4.97Kyle Kendrick		5.49			5.53Sidney Ponson		5.04			6.64Livan Hernandez		6.05			8.97Greg Reynolds		8.13			6.22

Either Bergesen will improve his ability to strike out batters, or he will not be successful. I don't say that because I have some infatuation with strikeouts. I say that because, statistically speaking, it's accurate. I don't know of any pitchers with Bergesen's K/9ip against 'AA' who have been successful for an extended career in the majors.

After seeing this post, I really dont think Bergesen will be higher than 18.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think a case could be made for everyone but Miclat.

Still think the HS player's upside (and with Avery the upside is significant) trumps the other guys on this list.

I expect the Os (and by correlation, Tony) like Henson and Bergesen, but I will defer on them for one more quality 08 draft pick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I want to say Montanez or maybe Bergesen, but I had thought Avery would rank somewhere around 15 and it looks like Tony is placing quite a premium on upside even if it's a little unproven at this point (Hoes & Bundy), so I voted for Avery here. He showed that he still has some work to do on his approach at the plate, but he didn't embarrass himself and even flashed his potential. And he was possibly the best athlete among the high schoolers taken in the 2008 draft.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1498497&postcount=22

After seeing this post, I really dont think Bergesen will be higher than 18.

Rats. I made that post, and I voted Bergesen for #14. :)

I wouldn't have had Bergesen at #14, but I was betting that Tony and OH did. And to be fair to Bergesen, he just might figure it out. Someone in that thread brought up Jamie Moyer, who struck out 4.75/9ip in his first 'AA' season, and then came back and struck out 9/9ip in 40+ innings the next year before being promoted.

Also, as long as we're cherry-picking one stat, probably a better stand-alone stat than K/9ip is K/BB (not that there's any such thing as a good stand-alone stat). And Bergesen's K/BB was solid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was one of the very few who went with Montanez. Wouldn't be surprised if I was wrong, but I have been right on every pick except when I picked Tillman at 2 over Matusz and Snyder over Rowell at 5.

Of course, now that I actually typed that, I fully expect #15 to be somebody else. :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.




  • Posts

    • I don’t like the wall. I think it’s affecting our hitters. I’ve mentioned before that I think it has totally warped Mountcastle into something he was never really meant to be. The guy came up as a pull-heavy HR hitter, and in his first season-plus (725 PAs), he puts up 38 HRs and a 116 wRC+. Since then, the wRC+ is down to 110, and his approach has totally changed, with his pull numbers plummeting (down from 39% in 2021 to less than 28% this year). He still hits the ball hard, but constantly underachieves his batted ball data — probably because he’s trying to avoid the pull field and hitting balls to the deepest parts of pretty much every other park. Will the same thing happen to Mayo? Maybe he has more pure power, but it’s always going to be a challenge for a RH slugger to survive with that wall. So much harder to do damage.   Beyond that, I think it’s also creating a serious risk of changing our LH hitters’ approaches too. These guys (Henderson, Holliday, Cowser, 2/3 of Adley) have come up with a reputation for being able to drive the ball to all fields. But how long does that continue when they just can’t hit it out to the opposite field? Our LH hitters had a combined 44 wRC+ at OPACY, and only one HR. They had the 3rd most balls hit to LF at home by LHHs, but the lowest wRC+ of any team on those balls (for the second straight year). The Royals, ironically enough, were the only team that was lower than a 70 wRC+ — that’s how much worse our lefties fared going oppo (at OPACY) than everyone else’s. By player: Gunnar Henderson: 112 wRC+ / .160 ISO (51 PAs) Adley Rutschman: 10 wRC+ / .026 ISO (38 PAs) Anthony Santander: 14 wRC+ / .095 ISO (43 PAs) Colton Cowser: 58 wRC+ / .057 ISO (36 PAs) Ryan O’Hearn: 47 wRC+ / .091 ISO (55 PAs) Cedric Mullins: 23 wRC+ / .100 ISO (41 PAs) Jackson Holliday: -72 wRC+ / .000 ISO (16 PAs)   On the road, they had a combined 126 wRC+ (with 9 HRs) going to left field, so it’s not like they’re bad at it. It’s just Death Valley out there in LF for them at OPACY.  How long will it be until these LH guys just start going full pull-happy? Essentially, the opposite of what’s happened with Mountcastle. When (a) your team’s philosophy is to focus on doing damage and (b) you can’t DO damage to the opposite field — the rational endpoint is just to try to pull everything. I don’t think that’s a good outcome. I think it makes them much worse hitters in the other 81 games, and I think it’s a terrible waste of a bunch of really talented hitters with all-field abilities.
    • Which core players beside Adley Rutschman struggled?
    • The entire commentary on Hyde and the team seems odd but have to admit there does seem to be something off.   Team seemed adrift for most of the 2nd half.  A very talented team went off the rails midway through the season mostly due to core players struggling and rookies not performing or filling in adequately for a few injured starters.    None of the position player trade line acquisitions performed that well.     Hyde seemed in over his head or at a loss on how to correct things, but he must have convinced Elias that he has a plan to fix things.  Curious to see what happens with the coaching staff.  
    • And or give up picks for QO pitchers 
    • They've averaged 92 wins a year the last 3 years in the most difficult environment in the sport with basically the greatest disadvantages in the sport. Something tells me they know a hell of a lot more about this than you do.    
    • Not when they aren't worthy. At minimum the hitting coaches should be el gonezo
    • That is the sign of a stable and successful organization.  Firing people.  Who could argue that?
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...