Yankees Need Catching Depth

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Why did he not command the entire Yankees cap then? If he really was worth $8.1 million, then I think he would have commanded all of the someone's cap and maybe over. Basically you are saying that you think Dominguez would have been the first overall selection on the draft in 2019.  

He was given the amount of bonus that put him around #8 overall. That seems to be right for an high risk, high upside 18-year old 5-foot-10 outfielder with above average, but not top of the scale tool grades.

I do think the Bonus pool money teams can spend probably does hurt the players' value a bit now. It's probably why they should be made available in the normal amateur draft and get away from all this BS underhand deals with buscones stuff. 

At the very least, maybe they should have a similar draft. But that's for another discussion.

As for Andujar, I do think that he is someone the Orioles should target if they could find a way to pry him away from the Yankees.

Well,didn’t he get the highest bonus for an Intl player since the slotting began?

I think teams still would like to get as many players signed as possible.  

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Let's also remember that Rutschman signed a $8.1 million dollar bonus so they would be losing $3 million in value (Dominguez signed for $5.1 million) with this trade. Basically this would be like trading Rutschman and $3 million for Dominguez. Would you do that?

I favor Rutschman over Dominguez but I don’t think this is a good argument.    The CBA creates completely different market conditions for foreign vs. domestic players.   

[Moose Milligan]

16 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Yeah, I think I've seen just about everything on here now. The kid is 18 years old and hasn't played a meaningful game. How can this be a serious take?  The chances of the number 2 ranked prospect in baseball having a better MLB career than highest bonus international amateur is extremely high. Let's go back to 2014 when the Yankees landed the highest bonus/highest ranked int'l prospect. Dermis Garcia...ever heard of him? Imagine if they had an offer for him that included Carlos Correa or Kris Bryant and turned it down. 

Even if Adley was a DH/1B for most of his career there's at the very least a 50/50 shot he's much better major leaguer than Dominguez. If he's the best defensive catcher in baseball which many believe he will be, based simply on baseball history, the chances that Dominguez would provide the Os more value is astronomically low. 

It's 8 million of risk vs. 5 million of risk. 

Adley hasn't played a meaningful pro game, neither has Dominguez.  Again to SG's point of "I don't want Dominguez because look at all that Adley has done!" is a pretty tiresome argument.  And you're banking on him being able to stay healthy in a position that has a lot of wear and tear. 

It's also easy to cherry-pick prospects off lists and say "Haha, this one didn't make it, I win the argument!"  The top player on the 2013 minor league prospect list at MLB.com was Jurickson Profar and he's not that great!  Prospect ranks mean nothing!

I'm wary of the love-fest here for AR, it's a little bit weird.  The guy hasn't done anything yet in pro-ball.  Now if there was a minor league season last year and he absolutely raked and he was slated to be in Baltimore this summer, I'd agree with you and we wouldn't be having this conversation.  Quite frankly, we're all excited about AR because he was picked #1 and he was great in college.  Since then he hasn't done anything to cement the idea that we should be head over heels for the guy.  Part of that certainly isn't his fault but I'm a bit wary of the OMG AR IS AMAZING HOW CAN YOU THINK OTHERWISE?!??! attitude because...it's easy to think otherwise.

Ultimately we're talking about two guys that haven't done anything in pro-ball and acting like we fully understand the probabilities and can predict the outcomes for either.  

 

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

It's 8 million of risk vs. 5 million of risk. 

No. The risk involved is giving up Adley Rutschman for Jasson Dominguez and which player is the better performer for your team. Their bonuses are irrelevant in this comparision. In an open market Dominguez would make more money than he did but he wouldn't make more than Rutschman in an open market.

 

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Adley hasn't played a meaningful pro game.

He quite literally has. 

5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The top player on the 2013 minor league prospect list at MLB.com was Jurickson Profar and he's not that great! 

A toolsy international signing (lol) who still is probably in the top 10% in terms of production relative to his international peers.

 

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Since then he hasn't done anything to cement the idea that we should be head over heels for the guy.

TO YOU. Not to literally every single scout/scouting publication. In fact, most of them keep ranking him higher despite is supposed underwhelming showing. I'm more inclined to believe them as shocking as that may be. 

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

acting like we fully understand the probabilities

You can do this!!!! Probabilities are exactly what they are. It's not a guarantee and it's very possible he could be better,  but you're incredibly wrong in thinking Dominguez has the same probability of ML success as Rutschman. He just doesn't.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, LTO's said:

No. The risk involved is giving up Adley Rutschman for Jasson Dominguez and which player is the better performer for your team. Their bonuses are irrelevant in this comparision. In an open market Dominguez would make more money than he did but he wouldn't make more than Rutschman in an open market.

 

He quite literally has. 

A toolsy international signing (lol) who still is probably in the top 10% in terms of production relative to his international peers.

 

TO YOU. Not to literally every single scout/scouting publication. In fact, most of them keep ranking him higher despite is supposed underwhelming showing. I'm more inclined to believe them as shocking as that may be. 

You can do this!!!! Probabilities are exactly what they are. It's not a guarantee and it's very possible he could be better,  but you're incredibly wrong in thinking Dominguez has the same probability of ML success as Rutschman. He just doesn't.

Find me one meaningful pro (college isn't pro) game that Adley has played.  I'll wait.  Hint:  He quite literally hasn't.

And yeah, he's not done anything to cement the fact that I should be thinking that he's Jesus in spikes.  He's put up some decent numbers in the lower level pro games he's played in and he looked good facing the same pitching over and over at the alternative site last summer.  If that's supposed to make me think that he's a stud...well, it ain't. If that's enough for you to get excited, that's fine.  

The facts of the argument remain that neither one of these guys have faced high level (AA or higher) pitching.  As I've said, I'd take the younger guy who plays a position that doesn't induce significant amounts of wear and tear.  It's fine if you don't agree.  

 

[Just Regular]

You couldn't get through a Cole game last October when Sanchez was benched without the announcers rhapsodizing about Higashioka his high school/travel ball buddy.

The Yankees had an interesting call whether or not to tender Sanchez and made their choice, so I don't think our guys dent their 2-deep depth chart no matter what happens with Chirinos's wrist.

Let's not deprive ourselves of the theater either - Cole it seems to me doesn't consider Sanchez a serious professional, but if Gary's bat revives any there's fun to be had between a near All-Star caliber player and a childhood friend somewhere around replacement level.

I used to think the path of the Orioles ascent had a big mile marker of Adley getting past Sanchez as the league's best catcher, but Grandal coming over and Sanchez slipping moved that goalpost.

[interloper]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Find me one meaningful pro (college isn't pro) game that Adley has played.  I'll wait.  Hint:  He quite literally hasn't.

And yeah, he's not done anything to cement the fact that I should be thinking that he's Jesus in spikes.  He's put up some decent numbers in the lower level pro games he's played in and he looked good facing the same pitching over and over at the alternative site last summer.  If that's supposed to make me think that he's a stud...well, it ain't. If that's enough for you to get excited, that's fine.  

The facts of the argument remain that neither one of these guys have faced high level (AA or higher) pitching.  As I've said, I'd take the younger guy who plays a position that doesn't induce significant amounts of wear and tear.  It's fine if you don't agree.  

 

This is all I've been saying, too. College is not the minor leagues, I don't care how much ol' Can o' Corn thinks it's the same.  Adley still has to earn his way up at least defensively. And there's not enough of a sample for that either, honestly. 

That said, I wouldn't trade him for a young outfielder. Shortstop? Maybe. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

This is all I've been saying, too. College is not the minor leagues, I don't care how much ol' Can o' Corn thinks it's the same.  Adley still has to earn his way up at least defensively. And there's not enough of a sample for that either, honestly. 

That said, I wouldn't trade him for a young outfielder. Shortstop? Maybe. 

You do know that isn't what I've been saying right?

I mean, not even a little.

I do, however, rate the college experience more highly than showcases in the DR.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You do know that isn't what I've been saying right?

I mean, not even a little.

I do, however, rate the college experience more highly than showcases in the DR.

It's a little bit what you are saying. It's not everything, but you certainly think that we've seen all we need to see in his college time to call him up right now. I've never advocated for letting him trickle his way up the minor leagues for 2 or more years. But if he can't hit AA pitching, I don't really think he should be called up. 

[Frobby]

If healthy, I think Rutschman’s floor is probably Wieters and his ceiling is Mauer.    That’s not too shabby.   

The fact that we didn’t have a MiL season last year is what gets everyone nervous.    We didn’t have a significant pro stat line on which to judge him.  Can’t be helped.    We’ll find out when we find out.   
 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

It's a little bit what you are saying. It's not everything, but you certainly think that we've seen all we need to see in his college time to call him up right now. I've never advocated for letting him trickle his way up the minor leagues for 2 or more years. But if he can't hit AA pitching, I don't really think he should be called up. 

Nope. 

I'll state that odds are good that if he was allowed to start in the majors this year he would put up inferior rookie numbers than what he would produce if he played the year in the minors and had his rookie season in 2022.

What I've been saying is he's advanced enough that he can learn what he needs at the ML level.  I don't think spending the year in the minors would benefit him as much, over the course of his career, as getting to the majors a year earlier.

I think that being challenged leads to greater growth. 

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nope. 

I'll state that odds are good that if he was allowed to start in the majors this year he would put up inferior rookie numbers than what he would produce if he played the year in the minors and had his rookie season in 2022.

What I've been saying is he's advanced enough that he can learn what he needs at the ML level.  I don't think spending the year in the minors would benefit him as much, over the course of his career, as getting to the majors a year earlier.

I think that being challenged leads to greater growth. 

On the first point, I just disagree completely and we'll just agree to disagree.

On the second point. I think he will be plenty challenged in AA based on what we've seen so far (which is, admittedly, almost nothing at all because he hasn't played enough pro games to know anything about him quantifiably as a professional ball player). 

[Can_of_corn]

Let's look at Markakis.

His rookie season in the first half he was overmatched at times, having had limited time in the minors.

He put up a sOPS+ of 80.

Now if he had more time in the minors I imagine his first 250 PA would have look better.

But Markakis made adjustments at the ML level and in the second half put up a sOPS+ of 131.

I'm sure some folks in May of 2006 probably though Markakis needed more seasoning in the minors.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

On the first point, I just disagree completely and we'll just agree to disagree.

On the second point. I think he will be plenty challenged in AA based on what we've seen so far (which is, admittedly, almost nothing at all because he hasn't played enough pro games to know anything about him quantifiably as a professional ball player). 

What can he learn in AA or AAA that he can't learn in the majors?  Unless you think he can't handle the pressure of it all?  In which case they picked the wrong guy 1-1.

Before the reserve clause you'd have HS kids in the majors at 18.  Back before teams had to worry about service clocks.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Let's look at Markakis.

His rookie season in the first half he was overmatched at times, having had limited time in the minors.

He put up a sOPS+ of 80.

Now if he had more time in the minors I imagine his first 250 PA would have look better.

But Markakis made adjustments at the ML level and in the second half put up a sOPS+ of 131.

I'm sure some folks in May of 2006 probably though Markakis needed more seasoning in the minors.

Come on man lol. This is not even CLOSE to comparable. By the time Nick got called up he had ONE THOUSAND ONE HUNDRED AND NINETY minor league ABs. I wouldn't be arguing with you at all if that were the case with Adley. 

Adley didn't even have that many ABs in all of college!