Bowden looks at potential Yankee deals: Mullins to NY?

[wildcard]

Trading Mullins just creates a hole in CF.    Hays has injury problems. McKenna has not shown he will hit major league pitching.    

Its Elias' job to listen but blown away is exactly what has to happen to trade Mullins at this point.

Thank goodness Elias is patience and understands he has coming in the minors.  Patience is something that a lot of fans don't have.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Trading Mullins just creates a hole in CF.    Hays has injury problems. McKenna has not shown he will hit major league pitching.    

 

Up until last month, Mullins didn’t show this either yet you were ready to hand him the starting job after last year.

Btw, I don’t have faith in McKenna either but this is funny coming from you.

And let’s see how fast Haskins moves.  He should be out of Delmarva soon enough.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Up until last month, Mullins didn’t show this either yet you were ready to hand him the starting job after last year.

 

  This statement is completely fault.    In 2020 Mullins as a left-handed batter hit 305/348/448/796.  Over the winter he stopped hitting right handed.  After two months of the 2021 season he is hitting  297/367/469/836.

So its not about a month.  It about over half a season hitting well as a left-handed batter. 

[MurphDogg]

I don't see how they can trade Mullins unless they get a package that values him as a 3-ish WAR centerfielder who won't be arbitration eligible until 2023. Frankly, that type of player is worth a top 75-ish prospect, a top 100-ish prospect and two other interesting young players. 

So for the Yankees, that would be something like Deivi Garcia, Kevin Alcantara, Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe. 

There is no way the Yankees would trade anything close to that kind of package, so I think it is a non-starter.

[LocoChris]

Unless we get a serious overpay, no. It would really boil my blood seeing Mullins in pinstripes, he’s become one of my favorite Orioles. I also have no confidence in our development and coaching to make anything of whoever we get back no matter how talented they are. 

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

  This statement is completely fault.    In 2020 Mullins as a left-handed batter hit 305/348/448/796.  Over the winter he stopped hitting right handed.  After two months of the 2021 season he is hitting  297/367/469/836.

So its not about a month.  It about over half a season hitting well as a left-handed batter. 

Well, I said in the offseason you wanted to hand him the job.  April and May are not part of the offseason.

And you based that off of 105 plate appearances last year.  So please, stop the over half a season stuff.

The point is, you said McKenna hasn’t proven he can hit ML pitching yet Mullins hadn’t either and you were ready to hand him the job.  Be consistent.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

I don't see how they can trade Mullins unless they get a package that values him as a 3-ish WAR centerfielder who won't be arbitration eligible until 2023. Frankly, that type of player is worth a top 75-ish prospect, a top 100-ish prospect and two other interesting young players. 

So for the Yankees, that would be something like Deivi Garcia, Kevin Alcantara, Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe. 

There is no way the Yankees would trade anything close to that kind of package, so I think it is a non-starter.

You are greatly overvaluing Mullins and what it would take to get a 3 WAR player.  

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, LocoChris said:

Unless we get a serious overpay, no. It would really boil my blood seeing Mullins in pinstripes, he’s become one of my favorite Orioles. I also have no confidence in our development and coaching to make anything of whoever we get back no matter how talented they are. 

You have no confidence in our development system to develop a player yet you want to keep a player whose development almost cost him a spot in the organization and has since been turned around, at least so far?

There are some inconsistencies with that thought process.

[Big Al]

I know we have to do what's best for Our future success .  But seeing Paul Blair, Mike Mussina, Brian Roberts and Zach Britton in pinstripes made me throw up a little in my mouth.  If Cedric went to the dark side, I'm not sure I could keep it down.  

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why would Elias have an issue with trading in the division?

 

Could also be the trading partner that wouldn't want their prospects to come back and bite them in the future. It does seem like we usually do business with the Angels, Mariners etc although it's not out of the question. We did the Andrew Miller deal with Boston, although that might be case in point of what not to do. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Big Al said:

I know we have to do what's best for Our future success .  But seeing Paul Blair, Mike Mussina, Brian Roberts and Zach Britton in pinstripes made me throw up a little in my mouth.  If Cedric went to the dark side, I'm not sure I could keep it down.  

Why?  Cedric has no real history with the team, has done nothing for us as a winning team and this time last year was a complete afterthought of a player.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Could also be the trading partner that wouldn't want their prospects to come back and bite them in the future. It does seem like we usually do business with the Angels, Mariners etc although it's not out of the question. We did the Andrew Miller deal with Boston, although that might be case in point of what not to do. 

The Miller trade was a great trade for us.

[DrungoHazewood]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My default position when trying to project how a minor leaguer will do in the majors is to look at their minor league OPS and subtract 35 points.   Obviously that doesn’t hold true in every case, and there are reasons to adjust that expectation based on, for example, whether a player was extremely young or old for the leagues he played in during his minor league career.    

So, I look at Mullins with his .749 MiL OPS and I’d expect him to be a .714 major leaguer.    Maybe I give him a bump up because he’s stopped switch hitting.   But overall that’s about what I think he’ll be.   
 

I usually use about 75 or 100 points per level.  Of course modify that based on circumstances.  In the old pre-2019 days I'd assume the Norfolk-Baltimore translation was somewhere between 0-50 points because of Harbor Park.  And you have to take into account age and repeating levels. 

Mullins is an odd case in that we can directly point to a major change he's made.  It's hard to look up his career minor league platoon splits, but they're large, much larger than typical.  So maybe you can assume ditching switch hitting would add 25 or perhaps even 50 points to his projection.  Instead of .650-.700 maybe he's now .700-750.  Or something.

Quick sanity check... JJ Hardy and Luke Scott dropped 70 or 80 points from AAA to the majors.  Adam Jones 120 or so.  Mark Trumbo 180.  Joey Rickard 200.  Steve Pearce about 75.  Chris Davis about 180 prior to falling off the cliff. Renato Nunez lost four points.  Trey Mancini has gained 50 points from his old-school Norfolk OPS.

[DrungoHazewood]

In any case, trading Mullins seems unlikely if we expect to get a haul for him.  All the other teams have the same skepticism we do over 200 PAs that are well above his prior performances.

Yet another "well, we're not planning on trading him but if someone offers up a fantastically unlikely and illogical package... sure."

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In any case, trading Mullins seems unlikely if we expect to get a haul for him.  All the other teams have the same skepticism we do over 200 PAs that are well above his prior performances.

Yet another "well, we're not planning on trading him but if someone offers up a fantastically unlikely and illogical package... sure."

Yeah, I don't see how two good months is going to entice a team to give up multiple top prospects in exchange for Mullins. Maybe if Ruben Amaro Jr. was still a GM in MLB.