The current 1-14 stretch is far worse than the prior 0-14

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

 

I'm not sure why anyone thought that these guys would amount to anything.  I thought Kremer might have had a chance but he's proven to be arguably the most worthless one of the group.

I'll freely admit, I thought Means was just another guy, too.  His stuff wasn't impressive when he came up.  But for every Means you get, there are a bunch of other guys who have middling stuff and don't do any one particular thing well.  Means, at the very least, has his changeup.  And pretty damn good command.

A guy like Lowther or Akin...they don't do anything exceedingly well.  And just because they're somewhere between 10th and 15th on whatever prospect list we have doesn't mean anything.  Lowther can barely hit 90 mph, and like it or not that probably won't play well in the majors right now unless he brings something else to the table that sets him apart.  But I haven't figured out what that is.  Akin, same difference.  Throws a little harder but the stuff is pretty below average to average (on his best day) to begin with.

I think the Elias/Holt stuff, the modern techniques, tools, etc, it's nice to think and fantasize about but I think you've gotta have some good raw talent to begin with. Look at Arrieta.  Look at Gausman...and then look at guys like Akin, Lowther, Kremer.  There's a giant delta there.  I'll freely admit too, I was really critical of Gausman while he was here, but if I had to ride or die with a guy like Gausman or Akin/Lowther, give me Gausman every day.  

You can't get mad at water for being wet.  And you can't expect guys who have middling stuff to suddenly turn into Greg Maddux.  It just doesn't happen...or else every rotation would feature 5 guys like Greg Maddux who top out at 93 but have ridiculous secondary offerings and incredible movement on their pitches.  If Elias/Holt could tease that out of any old Akin/Kremer/Lowther type, trust me...they wouldn't be stuck in Baltimore.

And I realize I'm exaggerating with the Maddux thing, I'd take those 3 guys at a 4.25-.4.50 ERA and be happy with it.  But that's most likely not going to happen.

Yeah, but they probably won't.

Just to focus on Lowther for a minute, the guy was Eastern League pitcher of the Year in 2019, no?   I’m not basing my hopes for him on his prospect ranking in our system.   I’m basing it on the numbers he put up in Delmarva, Frederick and Bowie.   And that doesn’t mean I’m expecting him (or Kremer, or Akin, or Wells) to be a top major league pitcher.   But there’s honor in being a credible back end starter.   I don’t think that hoping 2 of those 4 guys could turn out to be that is asking that much.

Meanwhile, Zach Davies has made 139 major league starts and has a 55-40 record and a 111 ERA+.   A guy who was 100% developed in the Orioles’ system.   Was there anything about him that screamed he’d be more successful than these guys?   No.  The guy throws 86-87 mph.    But there he is.   Would it be a crime if someone we kept actually had half that level of success?

God that just kills me.   

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Frobby said:

Just to focus on Lowther for a minute, the guy was Eastern League pitcher of the Year in 2019, no?   I’m not basing my hopes for him on his prospect ranking in our system.   I’m basing it on the numbers he put up in Delmarva, Frederick and Bowie.   And that doesn’t mean I’m expecting him (or Kremer, or Akin, or Wells) to be a top major league pitcher.   But there’s honor in being a credible back end starter.   I don’t think that hoping 2 of those 4 guys could turn out to be that is asking that much.

Meanwhile, Zach Davies has made 139 major league starts and has a 55-40 record and a 111 ERA+.   A guy who was 100% developed in the Orioles’ system.   Was there anything about him that screamed he’d be more successful than these guys?   No.  The guy throws 86-87 mph.    But there he is.   Would it be a crime if someone we kept actually had half that level of success?

God that just kills me.   

I think you missed the part where I said a guy like Lowther will have to have exceptional secondary offerings if he’s barely hitting 90. 
 

I don’t know what Davies has, I don’t watch the NL much. But I’m sure, given the stats you’ve laid out, that he does have good secondary offerings. 

I’m also not expecting these guys to be a staff ace, that’s silly. But these guys have been completely awful this year. I’d love to see any of them turn into a Davies type but the odds are stacked against them. 
 

Mind you, I’m not arguing to get rid of these guys or to send them down, I think they should keep trotting them out there and seeing if they can turn a corner. But I’m not getting my hopes up.  
 

The issue here, as I see it, is that Davies never made it to Baltimore before he was traded.  

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think you missed the part where I said a guy like Lowther will have to have exceptional secondary offerings if he’s barely hitting 90. 
 

I don’t know what Davies has, I don’t watch the NL much. But I’m sure, given the stats you’ve laid out, that he does have good secondary offerings. 

I’m also not expecting these guys to be a staff ace, that’s silly. But these guys have been completely awful this year. I’d love to see any of them turn into a Davies type but the odds are stacked against them. 
 

Mind you, I’m not arguing to get rid of these guys or to send them down, I think they should keep trotting them out there and seeing if they can turn a corner. But I’m not getting my hopes up.  
 

The issue here, as I see it, is that Davies never made it to Baltimore before he was traded.  

Generally speaking pitchers can develop later than position players.
 

 

I agree with you these types of guys don’t hit on a great rate of return. Like you said no reason to give up on them. 

[Camden_yardbird]

What I don't understand is why people are jumping to the conclusion that these pitchers who have less than 100 innings in MLB are worthless roster drudgery.  

You can't expect instant results and you can't take instant results as indicative of future success.

I think Elias and Co need to prepare these pitchers better, but it will also take adjustments by the pitchers to get there.  Those adjustments don't happen between big league starts.  They are adjustments that occur over the off season or when they are sent down to work on something.

The problem is you can't do the latter if you need these pitchers to fill innings in the majors.  Thats why releasing Harvey right now makes no sense.  If you have extra pitching then you can work with guys in periods where you give them breaks.  Thats really the only way you get in season improvement, otherwise you are keeping them on their normal schedule and making small adjustments and hoping thry work. 

 

[GuidoSarducci]

6 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

What I don't understand is why people are jumping to the conclusion that these pitchers who have less than 100 innings in MLB are worthless roster drudgery.  

You can't expect instant results and you can't take instant results as indicative of future success.

I think Elias and Co need to prepare these pitchers better, but it will also take adjustments by the pitchers to get there.  Those adjustments don't happen between big league starts.  They are adjustments that occur over the off season or when they are sent down to work on something.

The problem is you can't do the latter if you need these pitchers to fill innings in the majors.  Thats why releasing Harvey right now makes no sense.  If you have extra pitching then you can work with guys in periods where you give them breaks.  Thats really the only way you get in season improvement, otherwise you are keeping them on their normal schedule and making small adjustments and hoping thry work. 

 

Well, with respect to Davies, after we traded him to Milkwaukee, in 2015 at age 22 in 6 starts he posted an ERA of 3.71.   The next three years,  from 2016-2018  up until his age 25 season he started 74 games with a cumulative ERA of 4.06.   Of course, this is the NL but even with a half run bump thats a pretty respectable 4.5 ERA.  Which is way more than Kremer, Akin, and Lowther have shown even at their age 25 season.  Maybe Zimmerman is at that level.  So some guys, even if they aren't staff aces, do hit the ground running. 

[Three Run Homer]

Obviously our starting pitching outside of John Means is terrible at the major league level right now.  One sobering question is whether it's going to get much better in the next 2-3 years.  Grayson Rodriguez is an outstanding prospect, so there's reason to hope that he could join Means at the front of a big league rotation.  DL Hall has struggles with his control and some think he will wind up in the bullpen, but he has top end stuff and should be a quality pitcher for the O's in some role.  Beyond those two though, I'm not sure if we have anybody in the system who is significantly better than Akin, Kremer, Zimmerman, Lowther and so on.   You can't be a contending team with only two good starting pitchers.  

The O's have not used high draft picks on pitchers the last two years.  I think that has to change this year, hopefully starting in the first round.  

[7Mo]

7 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

What I don't understand is why people are jumping to the conclusion that these pitchers who have less than 100 innings in MLB are worthless roster drudgery.  

You can't expect instant results and you can't take instant results as indicative of future success.

I think Elias and Co need to prepare these pitchers better, but it will also take adjustments by the pitchers to get there.  Those adjustments don't happen between big league starts.  They are adjustments that occur over the off season or when they are sent down to work on something.

 

Good post.

[George]

Right now, pitching keeps the O's competitive. The team is only 2 games behind the D'backs in the win column. 

[Maverick Hiker]

I'm starting to worry again about breaking the 1962 Mets record for losses. The Orioles are not just losing, these games are  usually not even close. The Orioles have by far , the worst runs scored vs given up differential in MLB. And the team has collapsed. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Maverick Hiker said:

I'm starting to worry again about breaking the 1962 Mets record for losses. The Orioles are not just losing, these games are  usually not even close. The Orioles have by far , the worst runs scored vs given up differential in MLB. And the team has collapsed. 

Why worry?

Look, there's nothing to worry about.  If AR, G-Rod and Hall were up and performing poorly, I'd be worried and upset.  

But they're not.  And at this point, you've just got to root for individual performances.  I want to see if Mullins can carry this performance to the end.  And can he replicate it next year, or is he a one year wonder?

Can Means have a strong 2nd half?

Can Mountcastle keep coming on like he has been?

Can Mancini break out of this slump that he's been in?

To a lesser extent, can Akin and Kremer do anything to make me a believer?

Anyone worrying about wins and losses is bound to be disappointed.  This whole season was always about one thing and one thing only:  figuring out who's a piece for the future.  Some guys are stepping up, some guys are weeding themselves out. 

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, Maverick Hiker said:

I'm starting to worry again about breaking the 1962 Mets record for losses. The Orioles are not just losing, these games are  usually not even close. The Orioles have by far , the worst runs scored vs given up differential in MLB. And the team has collapsed. 

The O's can't even catch the DBacks, who have won 7 of their last 50 games, how are they going to catch the 62 Mets.  Anyone watch the DBacks this year, how does their putridness compare to the O's putridness?

[interloper]

To Moose's point, I'm not saying I thought these guys were going to be amazing, I just didn't think they'd be THIS bad. Like to the point of being basically non-competitive on a ML baseball field. 

Kremer led the Orioles minors in Ks just a couple years ago, so I think it's understandable to expect him to, I dunno, pitch to a 4.75 ERA? Be somewhat useful? His fall has been rather stunning. Akin is at least throwing a few innings, but a 6+ ERA for him feels kind of extreme too. Lowther I'm just giving him a mulligan on the season, but I always thought the board hyped him up way more than it should have. When your biggest strength is "deception" and "extension", sorry, but nah. 

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The O's can't even catch the DBacks, who have won 7 of their last 50 games, how are they going to catch the 62 Mets.  Anyone watch the DBacks this year, how does their putridness compare to the O's putridness?

To catch the Mets we’d have to go 16-68 or worse.   That’s .190 baseball.   Hugely unlikely we will play that badly over the next 84 games, though we’ve played .186 ball over the last 43 games.   Obviously I can’t say it’s impossible based on our recent play.

[Yardball85]

On 6/25/2021 at 12:53 PM, Sports Guy said:

They could win 28 games in a row and still be under 500.

What a fun season! Good thing they are just doing the same exact thing night in and night out instead of changing it up!