A's get Holliday

[backwardsk]

With the timing of this being so early in the offseason, does anyone see the potential that Beane may flip Holliday prior to the season? Maybe he can get more from him now than at the deadline.

The Angels pitching staff is going to be really tough to beat. I could also see Atkins going over to LAA.

[orioles327]

Isn't street supposed to be a Type A free agent? I know it doesn't take much for a relief pitcher to be a type A. If that is true i think that would negate the Comp. picks for Holliday. Plus there is IMO a better chance that a Street goes to team with a unprotected 1st round pick then there is a chance Holliday goes to one. The reason I say this is because bad teams often go for top hitters to make their team better, but it is generally accepted that having a good closer on a bad team is like like putting new rims on a 15 year old car that has rust all over and doesn't run well.

[Sports Guy]

Isn't street supposed to be a Type A free agent? I know it doesn't take much for a relief pitcher to be a type A. If that is true i think that would negate the Comp. picks for Holliday. Plus there is IMO a better chance that a Street goes to team with a unprotected 1st round pick then there is a chance Holliday goes to one. The reason I say this is because bad teams often go for top hitters to make their team better, but it is generally accepted that having a good closer on a bad team is like like putting new rims on a 15 year old car that has rust all over and doesn't run well.

Street is several years away from FA...His type A status is meaningless right now.

[Crazysilver03]

Street is several years away from FA...His type A status is meaningless right now.

Actually, he will be a free agent after 2010.

[Sports Guy]

Actually, he will be a free agent after 2010.

Ok..So, as I said, it is meaningless at this point.

Plus, he was going to get a little expensive and Beane doesn't do well with that.

[Sports Guy]

If the White Sox or Rangers make this deal in the same situation that Oakland is in, do yo still call it brilliant?

Beane isn't right all the time.

Sure because of the reasons I outlined.

Instead of just assuming I think it is because Beane did it, how about an argument against what i said?

I initially wasn't in favor of this but, as I said, after looking at stats more closely and contract status, it makes a lot of sense.

[Sports Guy]

.

How do you know Beane doesn't think Smith or Gonzalez will pan out like he thought?

I don't know but I do know what he values and I do know what he has in his system and where they are deep.

Anaheim isn't as catchable as you think...KROD wasn't even a top closer right now and Arrondando (sp) will be able to fill right in for him. They can put Morales at first and while 1B production will be down from Tex/Kotchman, they still ran away with the division. Not going to be that big of a downhill to put them in danger of falling behind a team like OAK.

Where did i say Anaheim was catchable?

The picks that he will get from Holliday he would have gotten from Street one year later

Street has 2 seasons before he hits FA...With his injury history and the inconsistency of relievers, it is hardly a guarantee that he would net picks. Holliday is a much safer bet.

BTW Gonzalez was a major piece coming back in the Haren trade, a guy who was signed to a very reasonable extension in Arizona and was in the Cy Young conversation. If as you say Gonzalez isn't anything special, it puts a big damper on Beane's Haren deal.

First of all, the A's got a lot of good prospects in the deal...Gonzalez was one of the high profile guys based on rep and a very good season a few years ago. However, I think he was overrated and said so last year...After 1 year in the organization, while playing in the PCL, perhaps Beane agrees with that but since he still has good value, he is moving him now before his value is nothing.

And maybe Beane didn't think that highly of him but knew that he had a good ceiling and would certainly take him as one of the SIX players he got back.

[backwardsk]

.

I don't know but I do know what he values and I do know what he has in his system and where they are deep.

Where did i say Anaheim was catchable?

Street has 2 seasons before he hits FA...With his injury history and the inconsistency of relievers, it is hardly a guarantee that he would net picks. Holliday is a much safer bet.

First of all, the A's got a lot of good prospects in the deal...Gonzalez was one of the high profile guys based on rep and a very good season a few years ago. However, I think he was overrated and said so last year...After 1 year in the organization, while playing in the PCL, perhaps Beane agrees with that but since he still has good value, he is moving him now before his value is nothing.

And maybe Beane didn't think that highly of him but knew that he had a good ceiling and would certainly take him as one of the SIX players he got back.

Do you think LAA is catchable? The first thing you mentioned that came to mind when wondering Beane would make this deal, was that he thinks that they are catchable in 2009.

[Stotle]

Not saying just you, but many people seem to think Beane can do no wrong at times.

As far as your argument, you make alot of assumptions.

How do you know Beane doesn't think Smith or Gonzalez will pan out like he thought?

Anaheim isn't as catchable as you think...KROD wasn't even a top closer right now and Arrondando (sp) will be able to fill right in for him. They can put Morales at first and while 1B production will be down from Tex/Kotchman, they still ran away with the division. Not going to be that big of a downhill to put them in danger of falling behind a team like OAK.

Not to mention they will likely sign one of CC/Tex/Burnett/Sheets/Manny which will allow them to keep Tex or replace him with another top guy. Also you have Wood and Kendrick one more year under their belts with one or both of them potentially breaking out.

The picks that he will get from Holliday he would have gotten from Street one year later. Holliday is going to be more expensive than Street this year so you're talking one more year and keeping Smith and Gonzalez.

BTW Gonzalez was a major piece coming back in the Haren trade, a guy who was signed to a very reasonable extension in Arizona and was in the Cy Young conversation. If as you say Gonzalez isn't anything special, it puts a big damper on Beane's Haren deal.

The bolded is what I keep coming back to. I had the exact same take on the trade as SG -- OAK didn't really give up much and probably has better value in MH as a more moveable piece. That said, they aren't catching LAA this year so really they are spending more money without doing enough (so far) to bridge the gap to the Angels.

The question becomes what you value more:

- Two comp picks (R1S and either late R1 or early R2)

- The package you could potentially get in flipping MH

- Smith/Gonzalez/Street

Smith/Street = blah for me. I wasn't ever a huge Gonzalez fan, but he was still one of the two main pieces in the Haren deal. Right now, it looks like Beane gave up 3 years of Haren for:

Anderson

some filler (loosely)

a non-playoff year of MH

Ultimately, I don't think it hurts OAK, but it makes me wonder whether there is a plan or if Beane is becoming a little too obsessed with "value" and the potential for future moves. Flexibility is great, but at some point you have to lock in your plan. This looks like a "running-in-place" move.

Now, with LAAs inconsistent performance early last year, wouldn't it stand to reason that Swisher/Haren could have made OAK competitive last year while still giving the option to move for decent returns either mid-season or this offseason? I'm just not getting where Beane is going...

[Sports Guy]

Do you think LAA is catchable? The first thing you mentioned that came to mind when wondering Beane would make this deal, was the he thinks that they are catchable in 2009.

Right, maybe he thinks they are.

As far as myself, I think it is possible but not likely but the A's pitching was really good last year and it may be even better next year and going forward.

So, who knows...I wouldn't bank on it but I do think its possible.

[Sports Guy]

Exactly...The trades that he basically forfeited the season for were fine and very good IMO as long as he stays on the plan. So why turn around and trade 2 young, cheap guys for an expensive guy when they aren't going to win anything this year either? Makes no sense.

Saying it makes no sense is going against logic.

He obviously doesn't feel that Gonzalez and Smith are worth more than what he has + Holliday + 2 picks.

He also must know that he can't get enough value for Street + the idea of paying him a lot of money over the next 2 years to do a job he feels anyone can do.

It really makes a lot of sense...if you want to argue that he didn't get enough for Haren and is now correcting that mistake, i can maybe see that although I disagree with it.

But the deal for Holliday makes a lot of sense.

If Holliday has a big first half and the A's deal him, they probably get back more than they gave up.

[Stotle]

Saying it makes no sense is going against logic.

He obviously doesn't feel that Gonzalez and Smith are worth more than what he has + Holliday + 2 picks.

He also must know that he can't get enough value for Street + the idea of paying him a lot of money over the next 2 years to do a job he feels anyone can do.

It really makes a lot of sense...if you want to argue that he didn't get enough for Haren and is now correcting that mistake, i can maybe see that although I disagree with it.

But the deal for Holliday makes a lot of sense.

If Holliday has a big first half and the A's deal him, they probably get back more than they gave up.

The trade itself, in a vacuum, makes tons of sense. In the broader context of building a team, it's puzzling.

If he wasn't sure about the players he was getting back from Zona (to the point where he's flipping within the year, why get them in the first place? I'd wager he'd get some pretty killer offers for 2 years of Haren this offseason, and he would have had the benefit of contending last year.

Now, he's added another step in moving towards competing. Whereas many of us assumed he was done getting depth, he's now moved depth and one "high ceiling" (I'm with you on Gonzalez) piece for a rental that has little chance to provide impact production on a playoff team (if you agree OAK is still a year away from being legit contenders). Now you have to worry about moving MH again to get back to pieces that will help in 2010 and beyond.

If the issue was getting comps, he could have targeted cheaper future Type A/Type B guys for Smith alone. Given attrition rates, the talent I'm seeing in the '09 draft class and OAKs draft and develop history, I'm thinking Gonzalez/Smith alone are probably more valuable than the two comp picks.

Maybe Gonzalez isn't a future all-star, but he certainly is capable of being a solid regular and Smith can pitch out of the back-end of a rotation. OAK now has to draftand develop two more players with a decent outcome being Gonzalez/Smith-types in 2 to 3 years. Could be better, could be worse, but generally you'd be happy with a back-ender and a solid regular.

Now, all bets are off if he gets the better package, but I find that to be a pretty big risk. Will MH put up the same numbers in OAK? If not, will those reduced numbers limit the package he gets back?

I guess we'll see.

[hoosiers]

It is interesting how the Haren trade is turning out a year later versus what the Os received for Bedard.

In fact, the net yield from dealing Haren, Harden and Blanton (reminding one of the Tim Hudson deal) is something on the pathetic side, IMO, especially when one considers the salary of those three - who could have formed the core of a quality playoff rotation.

The Texas front office is much improved and BB is going to find it tough sledding in the next few years. It seems very possible, perhaps likely, that Beane's relevance fades as the AL West becomes more competitive.

[Hank Scorpio]

I like the Colorado side of this slightly more, but I can see why Beane did it.

The Rockies will throw Gonzalez into the outfield mix with Hawpe, Spilborghs, Smith and Fowler. I don't think Gonzalez necessarily takes Fowler's spot in CF... O'Dowd sees Fowler as his future leadoff guy.

The acquisition of Smith will allow them to ease guys like Morales, Weathers and Strop in w/out rushing them and give them the luxury of pacing guys like Chacin and Christian Friedrich. I kinda figured O'Dowd would either sign a stopgap or pull a smaller deal to fill out the back of their rotation, but I was surprised he dealt Holliday.

I don't like the Huston Street part, I would have targeted a lower level starting pitcher b/c they the Rockies have a lot of guys that are capable of closing right now.

[Sports Guy]

It is interesting how the Haren trade is turning out a year later versus what the Os received for Bedard.

In fact, the net yield from dealing Haren, Harden and Blanton (reminding one of the Tim Hudson deal) is something on the pathetic side, IMO, especially when one considers the salary of those three - who could have formed the core of a quality playoff rotation.

The Texas front office is much improved and BB is going to find it tough sledding in the next few years. It seems very possible, perhaps likely, that Beane's relevance fades as the AL West becomes more competitive.

The Harden and Blanton deals were very solid.