Olney on O’s losing

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Fine, 2.5 WAR over 115 innings.

How is Hall's arm?

Guys get hurt.

Fine?!?  He missed most of the next two years with injuries.

Of course I can't say that was directly related to his meteoric promotion, but common-sense dictates that stress- from pitching against higher levels of competition, and from not properly preparing for innnigs burdens- is a cause of arm injuries.

This is so similar to the talk I was having with SG the other day.

"Sure if you're talking about NOW, but if you let me get a time machine, go back a few years and change the past, then what do you think?"

I think it is an absurd hypothetical.

Grayson Rodriguez missed a lot of development last year due to the pandemic.  He'd never pitched above A-ball.  His career high in innings was 96.

It would be irresponsible to rush him to the majors.

When the upside to that is 62 wins instead of 60, it's downright criminal.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

The situations were vastly different. The Padres had not won in forever. The Padres never pushed hard to make the playoffs. It was similar to when MacPhail took over. 

I agree.

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What does that have to do with what we were talking about?

The jumping around you are doing is exhausting.

Trading Bundy was a "burn things to the ground" move.  Doesn't make any difference how Bundy is pitching this season.  He wasn't even traded this season.

I'm done, you can't win on any of these points so you keep jumping around.

You say he burned things down.

I say he traded a pitcher who stinks.  And even his best, was pretty mediocre.

Hint: That's not burning things to the ground.  Trading away a #4-5 starter really apoclyptic.

Jumping around?  That's hilarious from the guy who started spouting nonsensically about Jose Fernandez when the pandemic was brought up.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What does that have to do with what we were talking about?

The jumping around you are doing is exhausting.

Trading Bundy was a "burn things to the ground" move.  Doesn't make any difference how Bundy is pitching this season.  He wasn't even traded this season.

I'm done, you can't win on any of these points so you keep jumping around.

I don’t see the Bundy move as a tanking move.   They got a lot in exchange for him, and he unfortunately hadn’t been that good for us the last couple of years.

To me the tanking moves are things like the Villar waiver trade, Nunez release and Alberto non-tender.   
 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t see the Bundy move as a tanking move.   They got a lot in exchange for him, and he unfortunately hadn’t been that good for us the last couple of years.

To me the tanking moves are things like the Villar waiver trade, Nunez release and Alberto non-tender.   
 

Which all a very, very, very minor reasons why we're winning 60 games right now.

I mean, is it fair to call it tanking, when the decision has basically no impact on your wins or losses?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t see the Bundy move as a tanking move.   They got a lot in exchange for him, and he unfortunately hadn’t been that good for us the last couple of years.

To me the tanking moves are things like the Villar waiver trade, Nunez release and Alberto non-tender.   
 

Those as well.  I just didn't feel like making a list.

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Those as well.  I just didn't feel like making a list.

Same question to you then.

None of those moves has really our wins and losses.

Is it accurate to call them "tanking" or "burning things to the ground?"

Shouldn't tanking and burning things to the ground involve, I don't know, getting worse?

[25 Nuggets]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Same question to you then.

None of those moves has really our wins and losses.

Is it accurate to call them "tanking" or "burning things to the ground?"

Shouldn't tanking and burning things to the ground involve, I don't know, getting worse?

You should see the moves the franchise has made off the field.  They've stripped everything down.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, 25 Nuggets said:

You should see the moves the franchise has made off the field.  They've stripped everything down.

In regards to MASN, I don't really care.

Are you talking the baseball ops side?  Cause that I'm interested in discussing and hearing about.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Which all a very, very, very minor reasons why we're winning 60 games right now.

I mean, is it fair to call it tanking, when the decision has basically no impact on your wins or losses?

Have you watched the guys who have played 2B this year for us?

I think you need to look at the cumulative affect of a bunch of moves, not any one move, which almost always cannot cost more than 2-3 wins as measured by WAR (which, in my opinion, doesn’t actually measure the effect on wins in any event).   

That said, I’m in your camp that when you inherit a 47-win team, it’s hard to call anything you do tanking.  

 

 

 

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Have you watched the guys who have played 2B this year for us?

I think you need to look at the cumulative affect of a bunch of moves, not any one move, which almost always cannot cost more than 2-3 wins as measured by WAR (which, in my opinion, doesn’t actually measure the effect on wins in any event).   

That said, I’m in your camp that when you inherit a 47-win team, it’s hard to call anything you do tanking.  

 

 

 

Fair enough.  Villar is an upgrade at 2nd base.  He's really the only one we miss.  He also reached FA before this season so it's doubtful we would have retained him.

 

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

The point was that the rebuild Preller was overseeing wasn't the type of burn everything to the ground rebuild the O's are undergoing.

The Padres never entered a season with the goal being picking as high as possible in the draft.

A different perspective:

It may in fact be unfair to compare the Orioles and San Diego rebuilds.  No, Preller did not inherit a team that won 47 games. Lol.  And exactly what year did the Orioles do worse than 2018?  

 

Orioles

The 2018 team won at a .290 clip and finished 61 games out of first.

2019 won 54 played at .333 and finished 49 games out.

2020 minors did not play due to covid, won 25 games played at .419 and finished 15 games out.

2021 have won 38 games while playing at .339 and currently 30 games out.

_____

Padres in 2015 also Lost their 1st round pick (13th for signing James Shields)

Padres picked 8th in 2016

Padres picked 3rd in 2017

Padres picked 7th in 2018

Padres picked 6th in 2019

Padres picked 8th in 2020

The Orioles have added almost no one on a contractual basis, have arguably a top 5 but certainly top 7 or 8 farm system in three years, have begun acquiring talent in the international market and improved from 2018 albeit in a fashion that in 2021 in almost undetectable.  Your criticism is simply you don't like the progress.  But Elias didn't burn anything.  I can't promise he has built anything permanent yet, but the destruction to the Baltimore Orioles was done before he got here. 

What exactly do you think Elias has done to put the Orioles in this position?  Not once has anyone connected with the Orioles stated there was a goal to draft as high as possible in the draft.  Not once. 

Here's a shocker that might defy your criticism.  The current team is pretty terrible, no one argues that.  But the Orioles are better off today than they were in 2018.  

The question is, has enough been done to be in a position to win consistently in the future.  That remains to be seen.  But you are swinging at things and making strawman arguments.  I'll say it again.  The Orioles are better than they were when Elias took over, the will enter 2022 without a single player they are obligated to contractually.  The clean up isn't over, and I will agree that it is taking longer to get young talent to the parent club.  But Preller in fairness didn't inherit a team that lost 115 games while spending 148 Million.  Until 2021, the Padres spent over $100 Million exactly once.  Preller took over in 2014 and 2015 was his first full season.  2020 was the first year the Padres finished above .500.  A comparable run in Baltimore would see the Orioles break .500 in 2023.  

So you could make a credible argument that what Elias has done is pretty special.  But it might be more fair see 2 more seasons and see if the progress is there.  

[Can_of_corn]

All you have to do to make the 2021 Orioles better off than the 2018 Orioles is pick Adley and not trade Mountcastle, Grayson and Hall.

Do you think they could have hired anyone that was seen as qualified and had the 2021 origination not be in a better position than it was in 2018?

You could have left Dan in charge and they'd be in a better position.

That is a comically low bar.

And yes, I agree that the Orioles did not openly admit they were tanking.  No team has ever openly admitted to tanking.  Such an admission would have unpleasant consequences.

As for the team record improving?  It's actually really hard to be as poor a team as the 2018 Orioles were.  It's pretty rare a team does that poorly.  It would have been I think unprecedented if they hadn't managed to improve the win/loss record a bit.

[sevastras]

A funny argument to Olney would be, other than the inherited #1 selection in which Elias took AR, who did he take that wouldn’t have been available had the team picked 10th? 

[sevastras]

8 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Actually, that's an excellent point.  Those A's teams played in 154 game schedules and they used to pretty regularly tie games, so they went seven consecutive years winning 55 games or less, and had three years in that span with .283 or lower winning percentages.  Olney drew the cutoff at 106 losses instead of winning percentage or something else, and limited it to AL, to make it look as bad as possible.  

If you include NL teams you bring in teams like the Phillies who from '36-45 lost 100 games seven times in 10 years in 154 game schedules. From 1919-1948 the Phils probably averaged finishing 30 games out of first place.  The Astros had their '11-13 run.  The Mets averaged 108 losses over their first six years.  In the 50s the Pirates lost 112, 104, 101 out of 154 in consecutive years.

The Blue Jays lost 107, 102, 105 their first three years and were almost as bad in '80-81.  Were the Tigers really trying the years they lost 96, 106, and 119 in consecutive years?

But yea, rebuilding for 3, 4, 5 years in the free agency era for a small market team is an abomination.

You say actually that is a good point like you are surprised I am capable of making a good point.

These points are the ones that Olney would have a tougher time refuting but the average fan base can only point out the Astros or Phillies or say he is dum(sic). Someone like you who knows the history should bring up points like these to know him down a rung or two but in the end it doesn’t matter because he is just trying to drive traffic to his articles in order to stay relevant and keep getting paid or get paid more.