O’s pitchers and stolen bases

[Frobby]

I was noodling around this morning and noticed that neither John Means (138 IP) nor Keegan Akin (95) has allowed a stolen base yet this year.   On the other hand, before going to the DL, Matt Harvey yielded 15 SB in 17 attempts, easily the highest on the squad.   Nobody else allowed more than 4.

The O’s have allowed the second-fewest stolen bases in the league, and their 35% caught stealing rate also is second best.   League average is 23%; Severino is at 25% (9/36), Wynns 38% (11/29) and Sisco was at 67% (6/9).   

Not only have Means and Akin not allowed any steals, but for each of them, only two runners have even attempted a steal.   

Buck would be happy with our TTTP!  
 

[Can_of_corn]

This clearly shows the importance of controlling the running game in modern baseball.

[jdwilde1]

Obviously, controlling the running game is pretty low in determining the outcome of a game when your getting blown out night after night.  With that said, it’s still an important aspect of the game (just like having players who are smart on the base paths).  Taking an extra base, not running into an extra out, etc.  Those types of things help a team over the course of 162.  Also, it’s especially good to know about Akin if he ends up in the bullpen, since he shutting down the running game is significantly more important in high leverage late inning situations (e.g. close game/pinch runner).

[spiritof66]

I mean this semi-seriously. Teams may try to steal less often with Severino catching and one of the Orioles' young pitchers with limited command on the mound, since there's a decent chances of advancing on a wild pitch or passed ball that other catchers would nab.

[sportsfan8703]

Why risk stealing bases when you can just sit back and hit homers off us?

Edited September 24, 2021 by sportsfan8703

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, spiritof66 said:

I mean this semi-seriously. Teams may try to steal less often with Severino catching and one of the Orioles' young pitchers with limited command on the mound, since there's a decent chances of advancing on a wild pitch or passed ball that other catchers would nab.

 

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Why risk stealing bases when you can just sit back and hit homers off us?

I think the latter explanation is more likely than the former.   No reason to risk running into outs when our pitching staff is so bad.   However, the fact that we’ve thrown out would-be base stealers 35% of the time also makes it a bad percentage play.  The break even point in MLB is usually around 70% success rate, and the worse the pitching is, the higher the break even point is.   

[sevastras]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

I think the latter explanation is more likely than the former.   No reason to risk running into outs when our pitching staff is so bad.   However, the fact that we’ve thrown out would-be base stealers 35% of the time also makes it a bad percentage play.  The break even point in MLB is usually around 70% success rate, and the worse the pitching is, the higher the break even point is.   

It is late and I am not feeling like looking it up right now, but my first thought is how does the team rank for wild pitches and passed balls?   Like others have said, if Severino is going to mess up, just wait for that and take the base. As much as it pains me to semi complement Severino, he has improved throughout the season. There was really no way to be worse than he was, so being ok is a complete turnaround from one of the worst catchers I have ever had to watch isn’t something to be proud of.  That said, he hasn’t improved enough for me to ever want to see him play for the Os again after this season. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

6 hours ago, sevastras said:

It is late and I am not feeling like looking it up right now, but my first thought is how does the team rank for wild pitches and passed balls?   Like others have said, if Severino is going to mess up, just wait for that and take the base. As much as it pains me to semi complement Severino, he has improved throughout the season. There was really no way to be worse than he was, so being ok is a complete turnaround from one of the worst catchers I have ever had to watch isn’t something to be proud of.  That said, he hasn’t improved enough for me to ever want to see him play for the Os again after this season. 

Severino - 10 passed balls, 63 wild pitches, 4 errors

Wynns - 0 passed balls, 15 wild pitches, 1 error

Sisco - 3 passed balls, 6 wild pitches, 0 errors

 

[Frobby]

26 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Severino - 10 passed balls, 63 wild pitches, 4 errors (823.0 innings)

Wynns - 0 passed balls, 15 wild pitches, 1 error (343.1 innings)

Sisco - 3 passed balls, 6 wild pitches, 0 errors (159.2 innings)

 

Important to add information on how much they played, which I’ve done.   As you can see, Severino has about 2.4 times as many innings as Wynns, but he’s allowed 4.2 times as many wild pitches.   I think it’s fair to assume that, in addition to not giving up passed balls, Wynns is far better at blocking would-be wild pitches than Severino is.   This is not at all surprising when you watch Wynns’ style of catching (on one knee as he receives the pitch), or if you just watch Severino on a regular basis fail to block blockable pitches.   

I still don’t think that’s got anything to do with opponents’ decisions about when to steal, however.   Opposing teams have no control over when a wild pitch or passed ball might come.   They do have control over when is a good time to steal a base.   And if anything, I’d say Severino’s propensity to not catch/block balls cleanly makes it more likely that an opponent would try to steal, not less.  
 

[Il BuonO]

The Orioles have pitchers?

[Legend_Of_Joey]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Important to add information on how much they played, which I’ve done.   As you can see, Severino has about 2.4 times as many innings as Wynns, but he’s allowed 4.2 times as many wild pitches.   I think it’s fair to assume that, in addition to not giving up passed balls, Wynns is far better at blocking would-be wild pitches than Severino is.   This is not at all surprising when you watch Wynns’ style of catching (on one knee as he receives the pitch), or if you just watch Severino on a regular basis fail to block blockable pitches.   

I still don’t think that’s got anything to do with opponents’ decisions about when to steal, however.   Opposing teams have no control over when a wild pitch or passed ball might come.   They do have control over when is a good time to steal a base.   And if anything, I’d say Severino’s propensity to not catch/block balls cleanly makes it more likely that an opponent would try to steal, not less.  
 

Agreed. I was just posting on the way to work and didn’t get to pull up the games. 
 

I wonder if Sisco’s CS numbers would have declined, either steadily or sharply, if he had stayed the whole season.

Another aspect that I can’t find a metric for is plays at the plate. Severino seems to have a slow tag reaction.

2 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

The Orioles have pitchers?

Remember, even the bullpen catchers throwing BP are considered “pitchers” at that time. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Agreed. I was just posting on the way to work and didn’t get to pull up the games. 
 

I wonder if Sisco’s CS numbers would have declined, either steadily or sharply, if he had stayed the whole season. 

Oh, I think you can assume it was a SSS fluke.  In AAA this year he allowed 35 stolen bases and only caught 2 stealing. With the Mets he allowed 4 steals and caught 1 runner.  

[Legend_Of_Joey]

28 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Oh, I think you can assume it was a SSS fluke.  In AAA this year he allowed 35 stolen bases and only caught 2 stealing. With the Mets he allowed 4 steals and caught 1 runner.  

Maybe those pitchers all had horrible TTP’s?