Qualified

[Frobby]

Just wanted to note that on Sunday Austin Hays passed the 502 PA threshold to qualify for the batting title.  

Obviously, Hays isn’t winning any batting titles this year.   Still, the milestone is pretty significant.   Hays had two stints on the DL that cost him 28 of the first 61 games, and was the subject of many snarky remarks about how he’s always getting hurt, etc.   But since his return on June 11, he’s been a regular fixture in the lineup, starting 83 of 96 games and playing in 94/96.   

I’m glad Hays has stayed healthy and hope next year he can completely eradicate the notion that he’s any more likely to get injured than any other random player, regardless of his past bad luck with injuries.  

 

[glenn__davis]

I've been a bit bearish on Hays for the past few years, but I think he's being overlooked a bit.  I was hoping he'd get that OPS up to .800 with his hot finish to the year but it doesn't look like he's quite going to make it.  Still, it was a solid season for him.  Him, Mountcastle, Mullins, Rutschman - that's a solid core to start with from a positional standpoint.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

With the emergence of Mullins this season, I wonder if limiting Hays’s time in center helped out. Less area to cover which might have helped keep his legs better and not having to dive after every ball.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

With the emergence of Mullins this season, I wonder if limiting Hays’s time in center helped out. Less area to cover which might have helped keep his legs better and not having to dive after every ball.

I think his health has the most to do with his success this year. Hays has always hit well when healthy but takes some time to get his timing back after injuries. 

After slashing just .108/.175/.189/.364 in his first 10 starts (11 games overall) after his injury in May, Hays has slashed .274/.315/.503/.818 the rest of the year so far. 

He'll need to improve his hitting against RHP (.220/.280/.404/.684 in 300 PAs this season) next year, but otherwise it's been a good season for him.

 

[Frobby]

I should mention that the O’s will finish the year with only four batters who qualified — Mullins, Mancini, Mountcastle and Hays.   On the pitching side, nobody will reach the 162 innings needed to qualify — Means leads the pack at 143.2, with one start remaining.   

Four qualifiers for the batting title is not atypical.  Some teams have as few as two, some have as many as seven (KC and maybe Boston).   Right now there are 70 AL batters on pace to qualify among the 15 teams, so 4.7 per team.

Only 15 AL pitchers are on pace to qualify for the ERA title.  Oakland and Chicago have three each, Toronto has two.  Baltimore, Tampa, Cleveland, Minnesota, Detroit and Los Angeles have none.
 

[NCRaven]

With the changes in starting pitcher usage, i.e., fewer innings per start, I'm not surprised that so few pitchers qualify.  Not to mention coming off a shortened 2020 season.

[HowAboutThat]

It wouldn’t surprise me if they decrease the number of innings needed to qualify, as the game develops.

Meanwhile, I am very happy with Mullins and Hayes, and I still have hope that Santander will reach his potential. Cowser is a couple of years away And I don’t know who is between him and the big leagues, but I’m happy to roll with McKenna for now, he does everything except hit, and what he does do he does so well it’s easy to overlook the bad bat.

[LA2]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

 

I should mention that the O’s will finish the year with only four batters who qualified — Mullins, Mancini, Mountcastle and Hays.   On the pitching side, nobody will reach the 162 innings needed to qualify — Means leads the pack at 143.2, with one start remaining.   

Four qualifiers for the batting title is not atypical.  Some teams have as few as two, some have as many as seven (KC and maybe Boston).   Right now there are 70 AL batters on pace to qualify among the 15 teams, so 4.7 per team.

Only 15 AL pitchers are on pace to qualify for the ERA title.  Oakland and Chicago have three each, Toronto has two.  Baltimore, Tampa, Cleveland, Minnesota, Detroit and Los Angeles have none.
 

That's actually sort of alarming. They're going to have to lower the bar, especially since I don't see any reason for  the downward trend in at-bats and innings-pitched to reverse.

[oriole]

Hays has been a frustrating player to root for. This year has been a breath of fresh air…he would get injured so often it’s been hard to imagine he’d ever make it to 500 PA in a season but here we are. He’s had a season typical of what I’d had imagined if he could stay healthy…now hopefully he keeps that going and can be a little closer to something like an .800 OPS player next year. But if it’s a repeat of this year, I won’t be disappointed. I was feeling close to writing him off as a potential piece of the future at the start of the season.

[jamalshw]

With Hays and Mullins having established themselves this year along with Mountcastle, we are starting to see a core come together. Add in Rutschman, Stowers, Neustrom, Santander, McKenna and I'm liking what I'm seeing for most of the lineup next year. And for 2023 with Westburg, Henderson, Vavra, etc. the infield has some re-enforcements on the way. Now about that pitching....

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, LA2 said:

That's actually sort of alarming. They're going to have to lower the bar, especially since I don't see any reason for  the downward trend in at-bats and innings-pitched to reverse.

The hitters have not dropped off as drastically as the pitchers.  

Qualified hitters

2001 - 156

2011 - 145

2019 - 135

2021 -113

Qualified pitchers 

2001 - 84

2011 - 94

2019 -61

2021 - 41

We’ll see what happens next year.   Teams were very cautious with their pitchers this year but may be a bit more aggressive next year.    I’m not really sure what’s going on with the hitters.

 

[vab]

6 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

With Hays and Mullins having established themselves this year along with Mountcastle, we are starting to see a core come together. Add in Rutschman, Stowers, Neustrom, Santander, McKenna and I'm liking what I'm seeing for most of the lineup next year. And for 2023 with Westburg, Henderson, Vavra, etc. the infield has some re-enforcements on the way. Now about that pitching....

Trade for it with that position player surplus (hopefully). That's been the plan all along. 

[Moose Milligan]

I'm not a fan.  While it's been a good season for him and he's had a lot of good moments, I still don't buy into the idea that he's magically going to be healthy from here on out.  In other words, I don't trust him.  

That, and he's a low OBP guy.  If this were 1990, I'm assuming I'd feel differently.

 

 

[SteveA]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The hitters have not dropped off as drastically as the pitchers.  

Qualified hitters

2001 - 156

2011 - 145

2019 - 135

2021 -113

Qualified pitchers 

2001 - 84

2011 - 94

2019 -61

2021 - 41

We’ll see what happens next year.   Teams were very cautious with their pitchers this year but may be a bit more aggressive next year.    I’m not really sure what’s going on with the hitters.

 

The drop-off in hitters is really inexplicable.

The trend the past decade has been towards 13 or even 14 man pitching staffs, so with fewer hitters on the roster to share the at bats, there should be more qualifiers, not less.  Platooning has become nearly extinct.

Now the roster expansion to 26 might offset that a bit.  But it seemed most teams used that extra spot for a P.

Could there be more movement between majors and minors, and this more total players appearing in games and splitting up the available PA's?  I don't know it seems to me that the "AAA Shuttle" is used a lot more for pitchers than position players, but maybe I'm being too Oriole-centric. 

Offense is down a bit from a few years ago so the pool of total plate appearances to divvy up is down a bit, but it's hard to believe that could be a factor.

All in all, I'm just not sure I can see why the numbers are trending the way they are.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

The hitters have not dropped off as drastically as the pitchers.  

Qualified hitters

2001 - 156

2011 - 145

2019 - 135

2021 -113

Qualified pitchers 

2001 - 84

2011 - 94

2019 -61

2021 - 41

We’ll see what happens next year.   Teams were very cautious with their pitchers this year but may be a bit more aggressive next year.    I’m not really sure what’s going on with the hitters.

 

That's an interesting thing.  I don't know why fewer batters are qualifying.  I need to think this through.