2021 Orioles #4 Prospect - Colton Cowser - OF

[Tony-OH]

https://www.orioleshangout.com/2021/10/27/colton-cowser/

[Sports Guy]

Honestly by the write up, I’m surprised he isn’t ranked a little lower. 
 

After reading this, I think it becomes even more obvious why Mayo is at 3.

[LookinUp]

40 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Honestly by the write up, I’m surprised he isn’t ranked a little lower. 
 

After reading this, I think it becomes even more obvious why Mayo is at 3.

I'm not sure what you expected. Great hit tool. Advanced command of the strike zone. Able to play all 3 outfield positions, but most likely a CoF. Fine arm. Needs to hit for more power. 

I basically see him having Markakis value because he'll get to more balls in the OF but with fewer assists. Very similar hitter. I'm very happy to have him.

[BohKnowsBmore]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not sure what you expected. Great hit tool. Advanced command of the strike zone. Able to play all 3 outfield positions, but most likely a CoF. Fine arm. Needs to hit for more power. 

I basically see him having Markakis value because he'll get to more balls in the OF but with fewer assists. Very similar hitter. I'm very happy to have him.

I think Brandon Nimmo is the best comp for him I've seen. Nearly identical size, handedness, and profile (only major difference being HS vs. NCAA draftees)

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I think Brandon Nimmo is the best comp for him I've seen. Nearly identical size, handedness, and profile (only major difference being HS vs. NCAA draftees)

Good comp. Not sure anyone here would be complaining...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nimmobr01.shtml 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not sure what you expected. Great hit tool. Advanced command of the strike zone. Able to play all 3 outfield positions, but most likely a CoF. Fine arm. Needs to hit for more power. 

I basically see him having Markakis value because he'll get to more balls in the OF but with fewer assists. Very similar hitter. I'm very happy to have him.

Just seemed to have a little bit of a negative tone to it.  Not that I disagree with what was said.

[LookinUp]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Just seemed to have a little bit of a negative tone to it.  Not that I disagree with what was said.

Funny. Read positive to me. Sounds like his OF reads aren't stellar, but has enough mobility and arm to play any outfield position. Great hitter with a .490 OBP this year. Just not much power. 

[Ripken]

I think the power will come.  Happy to have him.  Lawlar is the only one I'd have taken over him... but money and torn labrums are things, too.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Funny. Read positive to me. Sounds like his OF reads aren't stellar, but has enough mobility and arm to play any outfield position. Great hitter with a .490 OBP this year. Just not much power. 

Yea..I read it as a future COer with questionable power.  May not be the best combo.

That being said, Markakis seems like a good comp (without his arm) and you obviously would be happy with that.

Two things used to always drive me crazy about Nick:

1). His Ba/OBP should have been higher. 
 

2). To go along with #1, Markakis would always have at least one really prolonged slump at some point, usually in the first half of the year iirc, that hurt his numbers.  I always felt he was too good of a hitter for that to be the case.

He should have competed for batting titles every once in a while and his OBP should have flirted in the 380-400 range more often.

Hopefully Cowser can do that.  His profile seems to indicate he could.

[LookinUp]

While Markakis only had a couple of 20+ HR years, he was a doubles machine and that was valuable. Plus his command of the strike zone really made the pitcher work in the first inning countless times. We really missed that approach when he left.

I do like the Nimmo comp too. Guy had a 132 OPS+ last year. Markakis only had one year above that. 

All of this is to say that Markakis seems like a great comp to me, but not a ceiling. Either way, the lower risk profile combined with his projections makes for a very nice #4 prospect. 

Is that what you want out of the #5 overall pick? Now that's a different question.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

While Markakis only had a couple of 20+ HR years, he was a doubles machine and that was valuable. Plus his command of the strike zone really made the pitcher work in the first inning countless times. We really missed that approach when he left.

I do like the Nimmo comp too. Guy had a 132 OPS+ last year. Markakis only had one year above that. 

All of this is to say that Markakis seems like a great comp to me, but not a ceiling. Either way, the lower risk profile combined with his projections makes for a very nice #4 prospect. 

Is that what you want out of the #5 overall pick? Now that's a different question.

They should have taken Lawlar..although I say that and don’t know what the medicals were on him.  It’s hard for me to believe that the labrum wasn’t a known issue and maybe the physicals were questioning his long term prognosis as a hitter, especially Power, with the injury.  If so, I can see going away from him.

[wildcard]

I doubt Elias would have taken Cowser #5 if he didn't believe he would develop into a 25 homer guy.  I don't think 150 PA in the low minors changes that.   If a swing adjustment is required to reach his power I expect they will work on that.    I think Cowser starts at Aberdeen next spring.

[oriole]

If he develops into a guy who can play a good LF, hit lots of line drives in the gaps, get on base and run well then he doesn’t really need to hit a lot of home runs to be a success. Sounds like a future 1/2 hitter to me. Let Mayo drive him in 

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I doubt Elias would have taken Cowser #5 if he didn't believe he would develop into a 25 homer guy.  I don't think 150 PA in the low minors changes that.   If a swing adjustment is required to reach his power I expect they will work on that.    I think Cowser starts at Aberdeen next spring.

I think he starts at Aberdeen as well but that's a poor move.  He has no business being in A ball at his age if he is as advanced as they have let us to believe.  He's going to go to Aberdeen and struggle to hit for power and have a good BA and OBP.  He will basically be the same player we saw in Delmarva playing against similar competition (i.e., the guys he faced in low A will not be in high A).  Just put him in Bowie and let him go.  Keep him there for the first half of the season and see what happens next.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think he starts at Aberdeen as well but that's a poor move.  He has no business being in A ball at his age if he is as advanced as they have let us to believe.  He's going to go to Aberdeen and struggle to hit for power and have a good BA and OBP.  He will basically be the same player we saw in Delmarva playing against similar competition (i.e., the guys he faced in low A will not be in high A).  Just put him in Bowie and let him go.  Keep him there for the first half of the season and see what happens next.

Though I think he starts a Aberdeen I think he could move up fast.   Maybe after two months.  I expect  Cowser to add muscle to his frame this off season.  I don't think age has much to do with it.  He will play next season at 22.  And he could end the season at AAA.