Who is the Orioles 2021 #6 prospect?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, LookinUp said:

I don’t think this is a crazy position. The consensus seems to be that Henderson’s upside is pretty elite. I’m not sure he has a high probability of getting there. I think Westburg’s probably more likely to be valuable. Look forward to seeing Tony’s write-ups on them.

I think the only issue I have with that position is the age difference.

The one thing I will say is if you believe Westburg can stay at SS and Henderson can’t, that could be enough to like Westburg more…and the gap widens more if you don’t think Henderson can handle third either.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

Duh. It was a joke.

I see I have to adjust for my audience.

Ahhh, I see.

I guess we just have different definitions of what a joke is.  

[HowAboutThat]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Ahhh, I see.

I guess we just have different definitions of what a joke is.  

Gee, tough crowd…

 

 

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the only issue I have with that position is the age difference.

The one thing I will say is if you believe Westburg can stay at SS and Henderson can’t, that could be enough to like Westburg more…and the gap widens more if you don’t think Henderson can handle third either.

I think is a question of development. Henderson has exceptional physicality but isn’t as refined. If you assume he does refine his fielding and his hitting approach, you love him. 
 

I think I fall in the middle. I love him, but think the refinement he needs will slow his ascent. But 3 years from now i think we have a stud on our hands.

Westburg also has tremendous physical gifts. I think he’s a bit underrated because people forget that part. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I think is a question of development. Henderson has exceptional physicality but isn’t as refined. If you assume he does refine his fielding and his hitting approach, you love him. 
 

I think I fall in the middle. I love him, but think the refinement he needs will slow his ascent. But 3 years from now i think we have a stud on our hands.

Westburg also has tremendous physical gifts. I think he’s a bit underrated because people forget that part. 

I don't think it's all that easy to refine fielding. 

 

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it's all that easy to refine fielding. 

 

I completely disagree. Outside of the yips, fielding is always something that progresses through the minors. It takes reps.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, LookinUp said:

I completely disagree. Outside of the yips, fielding is always something that progresses through the minors. It takes reps.

Defense peaks early. 

The field conditions progress through the minors.

While refinement is certainly a thing I think most players are who they are defensively pretty early on.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Defense peaks early. 

The field conditions progress through the minors.

While refinement is certainly a thing I think most players are who they are defensively pretty early on.

Mixed feelings on this one.   Speed peaks early, and the part of defense that is speed dependent peaks with it.   But the amount of reps players take as pros compared to high school and college is enormous.    There’s a lot to defense that comes with experience.   I certainly don’t think Henderson has peaked defensively.   

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mixed feelings on this one.   Speed peaks early, and the part of defense that is speed dependent peaks with it.   But the amount of reps players take as pros compared to high school and college is enormous.    There’s a lot to defense that comes with experience.   I certainly don’t think Henderson has peaked defensively.   

I find this pretty interesting but it doesn't show how much improvement is likely from say age 20.  It also doesn't include data from MiLB.

Really it's only kinda relevant to the conversation but I think it's worth looking at anyway.

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2020/05/08/a-closer-look-at-defensive-aging-curves/

Graph:

[LookinUp]

13 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I find this pretty interesting but it doesn't show how much improvement is likely from say age 20.  It also doesn't include data from MiLB.

Really it's only kinda relevant to the conversation but I think it's worth looking at anyway.

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2020/05/08/a-closer-look-at-defensive-aging-curves/

Graph:

Yeah, I think it misses those key developmental years. 

There are two things about Tony's write-up re: Henderson that stood out from the defensive side of things. First is throwing. That doesn't worry me very much to be honest. Big strong guy. Strong arm. A lot about throwing is mechanical and I think good athletes can refine that aspect of their games.

The second was the stiff hands part. That does worry me more. Reps and mechanics can help there too, but it's hard to teach soft hands.

I do think it's kind of telling that Tony's downside prediction is 2b and not RF. I guess that means they think Henderson can stay on the dirt somewhere. That's pretty valuable given his upside with the bat.

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I find this pretty interesting but it doesn't show how much improvement is likely from say age 20.  It also doesn't include data from MiLB.

Really it's only kinda relevant to the conversation but I think it's worth looking at anyway.

https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2020/05/08/a-closer-look-at-defensive-aging-curves/

Graph:

Here’s some old work by Jon Shepherd when he was at Camden Depot.   He breaks it down by infield position using stats we no longer refer to, but the conclusions may still be valid.

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2008/06/shortstop-aging-curve.html?m=1

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2008/06/age-curves-for-2b-fielding.html?m=1

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2008/06/1b-aging-curve.html?m=1

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2010/06/depot-retro-infield-age-curves.html?m=1