The Elias Astros drafts begin to come into focus

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

College catcher, top 5 pick, played during the same era as Machado.  I think he's a fine example.  He also sat out 2020 and put up a .8 win season in 2019 so I'm not sure how much he really has left in the tank.

My only point is he isn’t being pushed into retirement because he’s no longer a good player, unlike the majority of players.   I’d venture a guess that if he’d been a free agent this offseason, some team would have ponied up for a 3-4 year deal.  

In any event, I agree Manny will end up far ahead of Posey’s WAR total, though he may not match the three rings Posey has.   
 

 

[Porky]

On 11/3/2021 at 11:52 AM, Frobby said:

By the way, in case you’re wondering, during that same period the O’s drafted 12 players who have reached at least 1.0 rWAR, totaling 73.0 rWAR as a group so far.   I don’t think that is too bad at all, especially considering the O’s had only one really high pick (Gausman, 16.8 rWAR) in that window.   I’d say when we look back in 15 years, there’s a good chance we will have exceeded the league average in the 2012-18 period.   

I think the O's have drafted reasonably well the past decade. Sure, they've had some stinkers - but every team does. With the previous regime - GrayRod, DL Hall, Mountcastle, Gausman, Bundy, Machado, Means, Mullins, Hays, Mancini, Eduardo Rodriguez is a pretty solid haul.

[glenn__davis]

1 minute ago, Porky said:

I think the O's have drafted reasonably well the past decade. Sure, they've had some stinkers - but every team does. With the previous regime - GrayRod, DL Hall, Mountcastle, Gausman, Bundy, Machado, Means, Mullins, Hays, Mancini, Eduardo Rodriguez is a pretty solid haul.

Rodriguez wasn't drafted, he was an international FA.

But I agree with your overall point. I have defended the Rajisch draft results many times on here before, especially when you consider how quick Dan Duquette was to forfeit draft picks.

[Frobby]

Updating the info from last year’s OP:

Correa, 39.5 rWAR, drafted 2012 debuted 2015

Bregman, 30.5 rWAR, 2015/2016

Tucker, 12.2 rWAR, 2015/2018

McCullers, 11.1 rWAR, 2012/2015

Laureano, 10.5 rWAR, 2014/2018

Straw, 6.6 rWAR, 2015/2018

Sandoval, 5.9 rWAR, 2015/2019

Phillips, 4.8 rWAR, 2012/2017

Kemp, 4.8 rWAR, 2013/2018

Pena, 4.8 rWAR, 2018/2022

McCormick, 3.7 rWAR, 2017/2021

Josh Rojas, 3.5 rWAR, 2017/2019

Mengden, 2.4 rWAR, 2014/2016

JD Davis, 2.2 rWAR, 2014/17

Meyers, 1.7 rWAR, 2017/2021

That’s 144.2 rWAR so far from the Elias drafts while in Houston.  Two players, Pena and Rojas, were added to the list from the OP, while two others, Toro and Thornton, were removed because they’ve fallen below 1.0 rWAR for their careers.

 

[Frobby]

Here’s a 2023 update on the Astros drafted while Elias was in Houston.

Correa, 40.9 rWAR, drafted 2012 debuted 2015

Bregman, 35.4 rWAR, 2015/2016

Tucker, 18.3 rWAR, 2015/2018

Laureano, 12.5 rWAR, 2014/2018

McCullers, 11.1 rWAR, 2012/2015

Pena, 8.7 rWAR, 2018/2022

Straw, 7.8 rWAR, 2015/2018

McCormick, 7.2 rWAR, 2017/2021

Sandoval, 6.3 rWAR, 2015/2019

Phillips, 4.7 rWAR, 2012/2017

Josh Rojas, 3.9 rWAR, 2017/2019

Kemp, 3.5 rWAR, 2013/2018

Meyers, 3.3 rWAR, 2017/2021

JD Davis, 3.1 rWAR, 2014/2017

Mengden, 2.4 rWAR, 2014/2016

France 1.5 rWAR, 2018/2023

Thornton 1.4 rWAR, 2015/2019

J. Rogers 1.2 rWAR, 2016/2019

Toro 1.0 rWAR, 2016/2019

That’s 174.2 rWAR from players over 1.0 rWAR.  30 WAR increase from last year.  Just about 25 rWAR per year during the 7 years Elias was in Houston, and that number is going to continue growing for a long time.  Very impressive.  

I probably won’t update this anymore since Elias now has a track record building in Baltimore.  But we’ll see.  
 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Frobby

[Frobby]

Here’s the comparable data from the Orioles, recognizing that the O’s were drafting lower than the Astros during a lot of 2012-16:

Gausman 23.0 2012/2013

Walker 12.6 2012/2014

Mullins 12.2 2015/2018

Yastrzemski 11.9 2013/2019

Hader 11.7 2012/2017

Means 9.8 2014/2019

Hays 9.0 2016/2017

Mancini 8.2 2013/2016

Heim 5.3 2013/2020

Mountcastle 5.2 2015/2020

Scott 4.6 2014/2017

Harvey 3.4 2013/2019

Brault 1.8 2013/2016

Hart 1.7 2013/2016

That’s 120.4 rWAR so far.   Note that nobody from 2017-18 is on the list yet, including Hall and Rodriguez.   

 

[Jammer7]

Awesome info, thanks Frobby! After looking at it and realizing that four of our top 5 from that timeframe did almost all of their best work in other uniforms, ouch!

In the years to come, I look forward to the comparison of the same years range with Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, Jackson, Heston, Colton, Jordan and Coby. 

[ShoelesJoe]

Quote

Mullins 12.2 2015/2018

Yastrzemski 11.9 2013/2019

Good Lord.