Kiley McDaniel’s FA contract predictions

[Sports Guy]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/32550818/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-22-mlb-free-agent-rankings
 

If some of these come true, the Os should be involved (even though we know they won’t be). 
 

Kris Bryant:

 

2022 Opening Day age: 30

Projected contract: 5 years, $90 million (18 AAV)

For some of the sources I spoke with last winter, Bryant had zero trade value on a one-year, $19.5 million deal for his last year of arbitration. Despite his name recognition, teams were responding to his underlying metrics (contact rate, power on contact, defense) that had clearly regressed from his blazing-hot first three MLB seasons. His 2021 allayed many of those concerns, so while he still isn't and will likely never be that guy from his first three seasons, he's now stabilized as a strong starter, even if he may move off third base in the back end of this deal. There's a shot Bryant gets over $100 million in the right market, but I'd bet on just below that.

[Sports Guy]

16. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP

2022 Opening Day age: 29
Projected contract: 3 years, $51 million (17 AAV)

Rodriguez has been a consistently good third-starter type, even if his outcomes this year were worse than normal because of a .363 BABIP -- his career mark is .311. He missed 2020 thanks to myocarditis tied to COVID-19 but appears totally back to his normal on-field self. I would expect a three- or four-year deal for $45-65 million.
 

 

8. Marcus Stroman, RHP

2022 Opening Day age: 30
Projected contract: 3 years, $48 million (16 AAV)

Stroman took the QO last year, so he won't have that attached to him this winter. He continues to be a solid mid-rotation starter, a sinker/slider, ground-ball type who has been pretty durable. That's not the sexiest type of pitcher, but almost every team needs reliable innings, and Stroman is still sitting at 92.9 mph, so he won't fall into the Zack Greinke/Dallas Keuchel/Julio Teheran type who eats innings in the regular season, then is mostly a nonfactor in the playoffs.

 

[Sports Guy]

I think he is low on some of these guys but I would be ecstatic to get Stroman and ERod signed for around 100M total for 3-4 years.

[Camden_yardbird]

E-rod received a QO for what it is worth. 

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think he is low on some of these guys but I would be ecstatic to get Stroman and ERod signed for around 100M total for 3-4 years.

Lol, Stroman and Eduardo? Lol.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Lol, Stroman and Eduardo? Lol.

Yes..they are both available and that is what they would get if Kiley is correct here (which I don’t think he is).

[Frobby]

For what it’s worth, Fangraphs also has predictions out today, both by Ben Clemens and from crowdsourcing.   For the players you mentioned above:

Bryant: Clemens 8/$200 mm, Crowdsource 6/$150 mm.

Rodriguez: Clemens 4/$80 mm, Crowdsource 4/$72 mm

Stroman: Clemens 4/$100 mm, Crowdsource 4/$72 mm

All higher AAV and more years than McDaniel is projecting.   The difference on Bryant is really stark.   

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/
 

 

[interloper]

E-Rod is going to receive way more than 3/$51. Like ... WAYYYYY more. All of these predictions are extremely low IMO. Not sure what this guy is thinking honestly. 

[waroriole]

These are very low on the years and money. I’d expect at least 4/80 for Stroman and EdRod. For us, it would likely cost at least 5/110. 
 

I could see Bryant going back to SF for 4/80. Probably won’t be a big market for him. 

[waroriole]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

For what it’s worth, Fangraphs also has predictions out today, both by Ben Clemens and from crowdsourcing.   For the players you mentioned above:

Bryant: Clemens 8/$200 mm, Crowdsource 6/$150 mm.

Rodriguez: Clemens 4/$80 mm, Crowdsource 4/$72 mm

Stroman: Clemens 4/$100 mm, Crowdsource 4/$72 mm

All higher AAV and more years than McDaniel is projecting.   The difference on Bryant is really stark.   

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/
 

 

The GM who gives that contract to Bryant should be fired before it can go through. 

[cnmilton]

Jon Gray is the pitcher I would really like to see the Os try to sign. Hes been successful pitching in Colorado, and I believe that would translatw to Camden yards. It all comes down to how much he would cost, and if he would sign with the Os. Not saying the Os are swimming in that pool, but I believe that they should. 

[Sports Guy]

51 minutes ago, Frobby said:

For what it’s worth, Fangraphs also has predictions out today, both by Ben Clemens and from crowdsourcing.   For the players you mentioned above:

Bryant: Clemens 8/$200 mm, Crowdsource 6/$150 mm.

Rodriguez: Clemens 4/$80 mm, Crowdsource 4/$72 mm

Stroman: Clemens 4/$100 mm, Crowdsource 4/$72 mm

All higher AAV and more years than McDaniel is projecting.   The difference on Bryant is really stark.   

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/
 

 

I would easily go those deals for Stroman and ERod.

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, interloper said:

E-Rod is going to receive way more than 3/$51. Like ... WAYYYYY more. All of these predictions are extremely low IMO. Not sure what this guy is thinking honestly. 

I’m not sure that he gets WAY MORE unless you are defining that differently than your tone.

He is coming off a year with an ERA approaching 5.  I know he had good peripherals but I still think that dings him.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes..they are both available and that is what they would get if Kiley is correct here (which I don’t think he is).

We would be incredibly lucky to get one of those guys. I doubt we get either.

[waroriole]

MLBTR FA predictions 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html