Kiley McDaniel’s FA contract predictions

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

MLBTR FA predictions 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html

Bryant: 6/160 mm

Stroman: 5/$110 mm

Rodriguez: 5/$70 mm

I don’t see the gap between Stroman and Rodriguez being that large.   

[waroriole]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Bryant: 6/160 mm

Stroman: 5/$110 mm

Rodriguez: 5/$70 mm

I don’t see the gap between Stroman and Rodriguez being that large.   

No I don’t either. If we can get ERod for that deal, I don’t even hesitate. Also, there are plenty of mid-tier SP we should be pursuing. 
 

 Nobody picked the Orioles for any of the 50 players listed. 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Bryant: 6/160 mm

Stroman: 5/$110 mm

Rodriguez: 5/$70 mm

I don’t see the gap between Stroman and Rodriguez being that large.   

It should be.  

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, waroriole said:

 Nobody picked the Orioles for any of the 50 players listed. 

That's how it looks for us objectively. Josh Harrison here we come! I don't love it but gotta be realistic, some other team out there is going to value Stroman/Eduardo more than us assuming they would even consider pitching in Camden Yards. 

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Bryant: 6/160 mm

Stroman: 5/$110 mm

Rodriguez: 5/$70 mm

I don’t see the gap between Stroman and Rodriguez being that large.   

 

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It should be.  

Even though Stroman has been the better, more durable pitcher, I think the fact that Rodriguez is two years younger looms pretty large.   

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Frobby said:

 

Even though Stroman has been the better, more durable pitcher, I think the fact that Rodriguez is two years younger looms pretty large.   

Sure but it’s that first part that’s more relevant.

I expect ERod to get 3 or 4 years in the area of 15-18M a year.

I expect Stroman to get 4 or 5 years at 20-25M a year.

So top end, 4/72 for ERod and 4/80 at the bottom for Stroman.   I think that’s about as close as it gets and I think it’s more likely the gap is much wider than smaller.

[Sports Guy]

Of course, it only takes one team to do the unexpected but I’m going to say that the team that signs ERod will be way happier than the one who signs Robbie Ray.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure but it’s that first part that’s more relevant.

I expect ERod to get 3 or 4 years in the area of 15-18M a year.

I expect Stroman to get 4 or 5 years at 20-25M a year.

So top end, 4/72 for ERod and 4/80 at the bottom for Stroman.   I think that’s about as close as it gets and I think it’s more likely the gap is much wider than smaller.

I expect Stroman to get more than Rodriguez.   I doubt he reaches 9 figures.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodriguez gets a bit more than 4/$72 mm, but not a lot more.   

[Just Regular]

Ben Clemens' intro said he got to pick Fangraphs' 50, and he and Kiley McDaniel agreed on 42.

So arguably the 51st-58th best free agents (maaaaybe getting to Oriole range) might be:

Fangraphs not ESPN (Clemens likes): Kwang-Hyun Kim, Mark Melancon, Joc Pederson, Kirby Yates, Andrew McCutchen, Michael Pineda, Jonathan Villar, Jorge Soler

ESPN not Fangraphs (McDaniel likes): Ryan Tepera, Alex Wood, Andrew Chafin, Joe Kelly, Eddie Rosario, Tommy Pham (not sure I want to open the can of worms of him vs. Mancini at ~1/8 as someone who might have July 2022 trade value in a good year), Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson

[Sports Guy]

Heaney just got 1/8.5M from the Dodgers.

[OriolesMagic83]

On 11/8/2021 at 4:46 PM, Just Regular said:

Ben Clemens' intro said he got to pick Fangraphs' 50, and he and Kiley McDaniel agreed on 42.

So arguably the 51st-58th best free agents (maaaaybe getting to Oriole range) might be:

Fangraphs not ESPN (Clemens likes): Kwang-Hyun Kim, Mark Melancon, Joc Pederson, Kirby Yates, Andrew McCutchen, Michael Pineda, Jonathan Villar, Jorge Soler

ESPN not Fangraphs (McDaniel likes): Ryan Tepera, Alex Wood, Andrew Chafin, Joe Kelly, Eddie Rosario, Tommy Pham (not sure I want to open the can of worms of him vs. Mancini at ~1/8 as someone who might have July 2022 trade value in a good year), Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson

If I had to guess, this is the pond the O's will play in.  I could see the O's signing one of Wood, Pineda or Kelly.  Probably whoever will sign an affordable ($5 million or less) 1 year deal. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Gausman predicted to get 6 years/$138 mill.  I can't imagine any O's fan would be comfortable w/ that contract.  His time w/ the O's was described as a "solid run".  I would describe it more like a box of chocolates, because you never knew what you would get when Gausman pitched. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Gausman predicted to get 6 years/$138 mill.  I can't imagine any O's fan would be comfortable w/ that contract.  His time w/ the O's was described as a "solid run".  I would describe it more like a box of chocolates, because you never knew what you would get when Gausman pitched. 

I can't see Gasman getting signed for length of years and money. Gausman has finally put together one good season and betting on him to repeat that the next six years is risky to say the least. 

Of course you would never go broke betting against MLB teams overpaying for players who aren't consistently good to great every year. 

[wildcard]

On 11/8/2021 at 12:40 PM, waroriole said:

No I don’t either. If we can get ERod for that deal, I don’t even hesitate. Also, there are plenty of mid-tier SP we should be pursuing. 
 

 Nobody picked the Orioles for any of the 50 players listed. 

When Elias commits to a 5 year deal  for a pitcher I will know that pigs can fly.

[interloper]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

When Elias commits to a 5 year deal  for a pitcher I will know that pigs can fly.

Only been done once in Orioles free agency history right? For Cobb. EDIT: Nope that was four years too.

So never been done? For a pitcher.