2021 Orioles #15 Prospect - Zac Lowther - LHP

[Tony-OH]

24 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

You can blame his performance on (mis)usage but is there any reason to expect his usage to change? Maybe the organization mistreated him but that kind of tells you where the organization is on him which has to affect his ranking in my mind. 

Well, the one thing I can tell you is I don't go by how he's treated, I go by what I see on the mound from a guy. 

I'll admit, he got hit way too hard and too often for sure, but his fastball command was never there until the very end and for some reason they were having him be a fastball changeup heavy guy at first, when his changeup is his 4th best pitch.

I get it, I can look at the numbers last year and get down him real quick, but I don't think he was ever right until September and even then he was learning to pitch against big leaguers. 

Here's what Lowther looks like when he's on:

https://www.mlb.com/video/zac-lowther-s-seven-strikeouts?q=PlayerId %3D%3D [675912] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=CMS_FIRST&p=0

Here's him in Bowie in 2019
https://www.mlb.com/video/top-prospects-lowther-bal?q=PlayerId %3D%3D [675912] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=CMS_FIRST&p=0

 

[Aristotelian]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, the one thing I can tell you is I don't go by how he's treated, I go by what I see on the mound from a guy. 

I'll admit, he got hit way too hard and too often for sure, but his fastball command was never there until the very end and for some reason they were having him be a fastball changeup heavy guy at first, when his changeup is his 4th best pitch.

I get it, I can look at the numbers last year and get down him real quick, but I don't think he was ever right until September and even then he was learning to pitch against big leaguers. 

Here's what Lowther looks like when he's on:

https://www.mlb.com/video/zac-lowther-s-seven-strikeouts?q=PlayerId %3D%3D [675912] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=CMS_FIRST&p=0

Here's him in Bowie in 2019
https://www.mlb.com/video/top-prospects-lowther-bal?q=PlayerId %3D%3D [675912] Order By Timestamp DESC&cp=CMS_FIRST&p=0

 

No worries, I respect your opinion and appreciate the write ups! 

[Tony-OH]

44 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

No worries, I respect your opinion and appreciate the write ups! 

BTW, I'm totally fine with people who disagree. I'll bet I have Lowther higher than most anyways, but I just have a feeling he's going to click.

Here's when his changeup is good. It's really good when he can keep it in the 81-82 MPH range and he gets decent drop. 

https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/lowther-changeup-good

Here's how his fastball plays up despite being 91-92 t93
https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/lowther-fastball-strikeouts

The curve really has nice finish
https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/lowther-curveball

And the slider is at 81-83 and has nice little bite and drop.
https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/lowther-slider

So as you can see, he can get swings and misses on 4 pitches. That's a starter. He just needs to find consistent command. 

 

 

[wildcard]

For me I have Zimmermann, Baumann, T Wells, Bradish, A Wells all ahead of Lowther as starters.  Why?  Because they have all shown some results at AAA or in the Majors that give them a leg up on him.  Lowther and Kremer need to go to AAA and show some good results IMO.   Akin is borderline for me between a starter and reliever.  Heck I have Ellis ahead on Lowther at this point as a starter.

I don't doubt Lowther could have success at AAA and get himself back in the competition for the rotation.

I don't know who ends up succeeding in the rotation but I think many of the O's candidates for the rotation are ahead of Lowther right now.