The Mullins market

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Admittedly I would have a hard time saying no to that. I would be very surprised to get that kind of offer from a team like the Marlins.

 

 

Not me.  Miami is the team we should be trading with.  They are about to sign Alcantara to an extension.  They have a lot of pitching depth and are reportedly willing to deal some to get hitting.

If you think Mullins is this good, that is not some blockbuster, overwhelming offer.  It’s a very good offer and it’s a fair deal (again, if you value Mullins highly and don’t think he was a 1 year wonder fluke) and one the Os should take. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

Has he made even one such trade yet? It’s not necessarily time to do so yet, but I’m really excited to see what kind of a horse trader he is.

Off the top of my head, I don’t think any trade he’s made yet has been successful.

I would be especially interested in seeing some kind of negotiation between him and the gal in Miami, I am extremely interested in how the other GM’s are going to react to her, and I don’t think she’s made any big trades yet either.

Why isn’t it time to do it yet?  If anything, it’s the exact time to do it because you still aren’t prioritizing winning.

[Aristotelian]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

Has he made even one such trade yet? It’s not necessarily time to do so yet, but I’m really excited to see what kind of a horse trader he is.

Off the top of my head, I don’t think any trade he’s made yet has been successful.

I would be especially interested in seeing some kind of negotiation between him and the gal in Miami, I am extremely interested in how the other GM’s are going to react to her, and I don’t think she’s made any big trades yet either.

She traded Marte for Luzardo, hence the need for a CF. 

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Ah, but if Mateo turns out to bat 9th so he is back to back with Mullins and he hits well he could have Mullins see more fastballs because Mateo being on base and a threat to steal.

If I understand Fangraphs’ pitch data correctly (and I’m not sure that I do), I think Mullins was actually weaker on fastballs than on other types of pitches, though he generally did well against all types last year.   

[HowAboutThat]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why isn’t it time to do it yet?  If anything, it’s the exact time to do it because you still aren’t prioritizing winning.

For me, a blockbuster trade will be for Big league-ready guys who can step in right now and help the big club.

Unless he is flipped the switch, that’s not gonna happen yet

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If I understand Fangraphs’ pitch data correctly (and I’m not sure that I do), I think Mullins was actually weaker on fastballs than on other types of pitches, though he generally did well against all types last year.   

How does the Mullins' data prior to last year mean anything anymore.   He broke out/developed.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not me.  Miami is the team we should be trading with.  They are about to sign Alcantara to an extension.  They have a lot of pitching depth and are reportedly willing to deal some to get hitting.

If you think Mullins is this good, that is not some blockbuster, overwhelming offer.  It’s a very good offer and it’s a fair deal (again, if you value Mullins highly and don’t think he was a 1 year wonder fluke) and one the Os should take. 

They may have different strengths in their organization but they won 67 games last year. I'd be surprised to see them trade high ranking prospects. Grabbing Luzardo for Marte tells me they are fine with stockpiling young pitchers. 

[DirtyBird]

3 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Do you think his value is higher now or next offseason (let's assume he posts a ~4-5 WAR season in 2022)? Longer window of cheap control now, but more certainty / established performance level with another strong season.

If you are discussing someone's trade value, it is most likely at it's highest point right now.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Philip said:

For me, a blockbuster trade will be for Big league-ready guys who can step in right now and help the big club.

Unless he is flipped the switch, that’s not gonna happen yet

You can get ML ready or near ML ready guys right now and not be worried about “flipping the switch” for 2022.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

They may have different strengths in their organization but they won 67 games last year. I'd be surprised to see them trade high ranking prospects. Grabbing Luzardo for Marte tells me they are fine with stockpiling young pitchers. 

It tells me they took the best offer for an expiring contract.

[HowAboutThat]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You can get ML ready or near ML ready guys right now and not be worried about “flipping the switch” for 2022.

If you’re getting meaningful MLB ready guys, then the ticking clock urges you to build a winning team while you have them. It makes no sense to get a meaningful player and waste his presence for a season or two of 65 wins.

The only reason Mike would trade Mullins for a guy/guys who are ready for the big club right now is if he’s planning to win this season. Otherwise there’s no point.

IF he trades for good prospects with a ‘23 arrival date, that would indicate he still “doesn’t care about on field wins” or wherever the phrase is.

But ready-now guys means he has.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

If you’re getting meaningful MLB ready guys, then the ticking clock urges you to build a winning team while you have them. It makes no sense to get a meaningful player and waste his presence for a season or two of 65 wins.

The only reason Mike would trade Mullins for a guy/guys who are ready for the big club right now is if he’s planning to win this season. Otherwise there’s no point.

IF he trades for good prospects with a ‘23 arrival date, that would indicate he still “doesn’t care about on field wins” or wherever the phrase is.

But ready-now guys means he has.

This is very incorrect and the proof that it’s incorrect is the fact that guys like Adley and GRod will be up this season.

If your theory was right, why would you bring them up?

[HowAboutThat]

53 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

She traded Marte for Luzardo, hence the need for a CF. 

Was that a block buster or a salary trade?

[HowAboutThat]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is very incorrect and the proof that it’s incorrect is the fact that guys like Adley and GRod will be up this season.

If your theory was right, why would you bring them up?

Of course my theory is right, bringing them up indicates that he has flipped the switch. Why waste a minimum wage year from two top prospects on a 65 win team?

We have the makings Of a reasonable quality team. We need a good third basement, we need a reliable short stop And realistically too good starting pitchers.

 Perhaps not enough to win the east, but that would be a solid team. I feel very strongly that because time is forcing Mike’s hand, rather than waste a season, or continue holding them down on the farm, he has no choice.

edit: Bear in mind that as of yet, no one has been “brought up.“ And Mike would not be the first guy to blatantly manipulate service time. Oh I don’t think they can justify keeping either one down,, And rather than waste the season, I think he will make moves to improve the major league team. All that remains to be seen, but I think there is no doubt that if he brings up both players it will be because he wants the team on the field to be better this year.

[Just Regular]

Starling being a hot November name will be nice for the Mullins hot stove, but I am almost positive we are not trading him for 2022 pitching because 2022 is a write-off.   A 2022 pitcher could be hurt by 2023, so in Miami-land, I don't think Luzardo, Pablo or Elieser as big chunks of a Marlins package will appeal to Elias.

Just for the Sell High, Buy Low dynamics of around where the players were 9 months ago, Mullins for Jasson and Gleyber is my pet one if the Yankees don't get Starling.   You get your 2024 replacement and another guy to refurbish and flip if Adley/Grayson don't announce their presences with enough authority to anchor a relevant 2023 team.

For the talent we are still in the phase of accumulating, I don't see why Elias' preferences from the 2021 draft wouldn't also influence his Mullins asks if he has earnest bidders.