Orioles signing Rougned Odor

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't know if you are just being hard headed at this point or just digging in your heals, but I don't think that's what this year is about at all.

The Orioles are in a different spot in any previous year because they legitimate, major league or major league ready players and pitchers to play this year.

2022  vs 2021

C- Rutschman > Severino
2B - Urias > Valaika/Wilkeson/Rio/Urias 2021
SS - Mateo < Galvis (The Orioles still need some work here unless they really believe Mateo is a full time SS)
3B - Gutierrez > Franco
UTL- Odor > Valaika/Martin
LF - Hays (27) >= Hays (26)
CF - Mullins = Mullins
RF - Santander (healthy) > Santander
DH - Mancini 2 years removed from cancer >= Mancini
SP - Means = Means
SP - T Wells > Harvey
SP - Lowther > Lopez
SP  - Zimmemann > Zimmermann hurt
SP - Bradish/Baumann/A. Wells/Akin/Kremer (?) > Watkins/Kremer

I think it's very realistic that we can improve 20 games from within and this doesn't even account for Rodriguez and Stowers being ready at some point.

 

 

That is an extremely Rosey picture and Wells isn’t likely to be moved to the starters role.

[Ruzious]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I contest the premise that a team with low attendance and a low payroll is a more attractive purchase target than a team with high attendance and a higher payroll, and will get a higher purchase price.  If I’m buying a team, the price is determined by the ability to be profitable on a sustained basis, and also whether the team is in a situation to become a winning organization.  

Exactly.  Losing attendance and revenues year after year isn't something I would look for if I'm looking to buy... anything - unless I'm looking in the clearance section to pay cents on the dollar.    

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That is an extremely Rosey picture and Wells isn’t likely to be moved to the starters role.

Ok, keep Wells in relief if you want. What's not probable? where is the "rosey" part?

Will some players slip, sure. Heck we may find that none of the guy outside of Means are major league starters, but that would tell the team that they must acquire that pitching. Saying that, look at the stats of the guys they will be replacing. It's hard to be worse than what Lopez/Harvey/Kremer/Watkins/Akin/Eshelman did as starters in 2021. 

 

[sportsfan8703]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't know if you are just being hard headed at this point or just digging in your heals, but I don't think that's what this year is about at all.

The Orioles are in a different spot in any previous year because they legitimate, major league or major league ready players and pitchers to play this year.

2022  vs 2021

C- Rutschman > Severino
2B - Urias > Valaika/Wilkeson/Rio/Urias 2021
SS - Mateo < Galvis (The Orioles still need some work here unless they really believe Mateo is a full time SS)
3B - Gutierrez > Franco
UTL- Odor > Valaika/Martin
LF - Hays (27) >= Hays (26)
CF - Mullins = Mullins
RF - Santander (healthy) > Santander
DH - Mancini 2 years removed from cancer >= Mancini
SP - Means = Means
SP - T Wells > Harvey
SP - Lowther > Lopez
SP  - Zimmemann > Zimmermann hurt
SP - Bradish/Baumann/A. Wells/Akin/Kremer (?) > Watkins/Kremer

I think it's very realistic that we can improve 20 games from within and this doesn't even account for Rodriguez and Stowers being ready at some point.

 

 

Also the 40 man is a lot more snug now than at the beginning of the offseason. There was a lot of dead weight on there. I still don’t see Bannon, Nevin, Mattson, and Kreihbel, making it through the offseason. Heck, two are likely coming off for the Rule 5 draft. Plus we have the waiver wire. We’re incrementally improving while having our prospects start to creep closer to the MLB.  

[RocBball11]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That is an extremely Rosey picture and Wells isn’t likely to be moved to the starters role.

I think it’s a less rosey and more realistic approach. Look around at all the teams who win and their core was homegrown. You add when you believe you have a core ready to win. The goal is that core starts to establish itself this year. Mullins and mountcaatle may have already done so, the expectation is Adley does the same this year.

pitching is the elephant in the room. Outside of means no “prospect” has taken the bull by the horns. That must happen this year for the next step in the rebuild to occur. If/when that happens you can then look to fill a spot or two in rotation via an acquisition. 
 

sitting here today I don’t want my resources being traded away or wasted on another average pitcher (matz]. Those resources need to go to development and Latin America. If as expected the first wave arrives this year and becomes established then you invest in longer term financial commitments at the major league level.

the FO continues to operate as they said they would. Build from ground up. They also have said from day 1 when the time comes they will reallocated spending to big league club. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, keep Wells in relief if you want. What's not probable? where is the "rosey" part?

Will some players slip, sure. Heck we may find that none of the guy outside of Means are major league starters, but that would tell the team that they must acquire that pitching. Saying that, look at the stats of the guys they will be replacing. It's hard to be worse than what Lopez/Harvey/Kremer/Watkins/Akin/Eshelman did as starters in 2021. 

 

You are essentially saying everything will be better.

Look, I went into last year thinking that team should win around 70 games and I think it could have if things broke properly.  So, im not saying it can’t happen but I don’t know that the division is going to be worse and I don’t know that we see so much improvement from basically the same team that, without outside help, this team sees a 20-25 game improvement.

The pitching is still brutal.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, RocBball11 said:

I think it’s a less rosey and more realistic approach. Look around at all the teams who win and their core was homegrown. You add when you believe you have a core ready to win. The goal is that core starts to establish itself this year. Mullins and mountcaatle may have already done so, the expectation is Adley does the same this year.

pitching is the elephant in the room. Outside of means no “prospect” has taken the bull by the horns. That must happen this year for the next step in the rebuild to occur. If/when that happens you can then look to fill a spot or two in rotation via an acquisition. 
 

sitting here today I don’t want my resources being traded away or wasted on another average pitcher (matz]. Those resources need to go to development and Latin America. If as expected the first wave arrives this year and becomes established then you invest in longer term financial commitments at the major league level.

the FO continues to operate as they said they would. Build from ground up. They also have said from day 1 when the time comes they will reallocated spending to big league club. 

Basically every single team in the major leagues is able to spend resources internationally and development wise, all the while carrying a payroll at least double what the Os will be.

How is it the rest of baseball can operate this way but the Os can’t?

[RocBball11]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Basically every single team in the major leagues is able to spend resources internationally and development wise, all the while carrying a payroll at least double what the Os will be.

How is it the rest of baseball can operate this way but the Os can’t?

 I believe the Orioles can and will in a way other mid market teams do. The problem is they are 15 years behind in their build up of these areas. So again when the first waves of the talent arrives and becomes established they will spend. 

spending now to win 5-10 extra games makes zero sense to me. Plus as others have said the likelihood of any FA signing here now without a massive overspend is very low. We aren’t, nor should we, be offering multi year deals and what pitcher wants to come here on a one year make it or break it deal.

for our fortunes to change the prospects need to arrive and establish themselves. 2 of the pitchers who have gotten their feet wet MUST become legitimate options.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RocBball11 said:

 I believe the Orioles can and will in a way other mid market teams do. The problem is they are 15 years behind in their build up of these areas. So again when the first waves of the talent arrives and becomes established they will spend. 

spending now to win 5-10 extra games makes zero sense to me. Plus as others have said the likelihood of any FA signing here now without a massive overspend is very low. We aren’t, nor should we, be offering multi year deals and what pitcher wants to come here on a one year make it or break it deal.

for our fortunes to change the prospects need to arrive and establish themselves. 2 of the pitchers who have gotten their feet wet MUST become legitimate options.

I think the Orioles have been spending a lot of time and effort to present themselves as a small market team.  I expect their future payroll will reflect this effort.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, RocBball11 said:

 I believe the Orioles can and will in a way other mid market teams do. The problem is they are 15 years behind in their build up of these areas. So again when the first waves of the talent arrives and becomes established they will spend. 

spending now to win 5-10 extra games makes zero sense to me. Plus as others have said the likelihood of any FA signing here now without a massive overspend is very low. We aren’t, nor should we, be offering multi year deals and what pitcher wants to come here on a one year make it or break it deal.

for our fortunes to change the prospects need to arrive and establish themselves. 2 of the pitchers who have gotten their feet wet MUST become legitimate options.

First of all, it doesn’t matter if they ar behind other teams.  You don’t need to suck to do those things.  You can win 120 games a year and still have a great intl program, draft and develop well and build a good farm system.

I don’t see the point of waiting another 3+ years before they are contenders.  Give me a product that is close to 500 in 2022 and then make the leap to contending in 2023.  That should be the plan.

[Tony-OH]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You are essentially saying everything will be better.

Look, I went into last year thinking that team should win around 70 games and I think it could have if things broke properly.  So, im not saying it can’t happen but I don’t know that the division is going to be worse and I don’t know that we see so much improvement from basically the same team that, without outside help, this team sees a 20-25 game improvement.

The pitching is still brutal.

I'm saying it's reasonable to expect the players in 2022 to be better than the players in this positions in 2021. Does that mean they all will, no, but it's reasonable to expect them to be better than the ones they replaced. As for the starting pitching, that's a pretty low bar to get over. 

As you know, I ultimately think Bradish, Baumann, Akin and maybe Kremer all will settled into the bullpen. I'm higher on Lowther than many, but over a full season, I'll be a good amount of money he's going to be better than Harvey/Lopez/Watkins etc. Same goes for a healthy Zimmermann who has a nice changeup at times and his slider is for real when he can command it. 

I still think they are going to try T. Wells as a starter unless they don't think he can handle the innings jump but he has better stuff than any of the Orioles potential opening day rotation pieces not named Means.

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, it doesn’t matter if they ar behind other teams.  You don’t need to suck to do those things.  You can win 120 games a year and still have a great intl program, draft and develop well and build a good farm system.

I don’t see the point of waiting another 3+ years before they are contenders.  Give me a product that is close to 500 in 2022 and then make the leap to contending in 2023.  That should be the plan.

Ok, it's your team. How do make this team a 29 games better in one offseason without losing the depth of your farm system or overpaying players in free agency?

That's the problem. We all would like to see .500 baseball again, but their is no path to .500 this year that also includes us being perennial contenders by 2024.

And if you want to bring up hypothetical trades for players who may or may not be available, tell us who you think we'd have to give up to get such player. 

[Chuck A]

So when do we start seeing the Westburgs and Hendersons get a taste of the big leagues?  Making it to AA for a brief spell at the end of last season still says to me they will most likely start at AA again this coming season with possible jumps to AAA later in the year.  Does that mean 2023 possible?  I have a hard time believing that if they arrive to the majors in 23 that they wont have that painful learning curve.  At what point do these "polished" college bats get a chance in the bigs?  And Gunnar, is he still considered to be a "special kid"?  When i was growing up he would've been called a blue chip prospect and possibly get a cup of coffee by age 20 or 21. 

[Sports Guy]

19 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Ok, it's your team. How do make this team a 29 games better in one offseason without losing the depth of your farm system or overpaying players in free agency?

That's the problem. We all would like to see .500 baseball again, but their is no path to .500 this year that also includes us being perennial contenders by 2024.

And if you want to bring up hypothetical trades for players who may or may not be available, tell us who you think we'd have to give up to get such player. 

Well, I guess it depends on what you mean by overpaying players in FA.

I have said I would sign Stroman and was willing to pay him up to around what Ray and KG got…he may not take that much to sign.

I would deal Mancini to a team in hopes to get a few BP arms.  I think guys outside of a good systems top 10 is the best we can hope for w/r/t Trey and I would try to target ML ready BP assets.

I would send Mullins and a prospect or 2 outside of our top 20ish to the Marlins for Lopez, Meyer and Anderson.  If this trade couldn’t work, I would still look to move Mullins for at least one ML ready starter and another player close to Ml ready.

I would send a few outside the top 20 prospects to St Louis for DeJong and take on all of his salary (this helps the Cards sign Story, as has been reported they want to do).

Ultimately….

Mountcastle, Urias, DeJong and Anderson in the IF

Hays, Santander in the OF

Adley at C

Rotation of Stroman, Means, P Lopez and 2 of the starters in the system..probably Akin and Zimmerman..and obviously GRod as soon as they want him up..maybe immediately depending on the new CBA…Meyer waiting in the wings and a potential call up by mid season…eventual potential rotation of Stroman, Means, Lopez, Meyer and Hall and if Means is pitching well at the deadline (and especially if Meyer and Hall look good), you move him for more prospects and have even more money off the books for next offseason.  This is how you keep turning the roster and keep the payroll low.  

BP: basically all the arms here plus what we get from Trey.  Keep moving the pieces around until you find the best mix.  The fixtures should be Scott and T Wells..and then it’s a toss up after that.

The DH and other OF spot probably comes in the form of one more cheap signing and/or easily available trade.  Mateo fits into the mix and could be a platoon candidate.  This is until Stowers and whoever else shows they are ready. 
 

Would that team win 70+ games?  I think so.  The pitching is vastly improved.  The defense is very good, which should help the young arms. You have youth everywhere, which (as you pointed out) should lead to improved play. You have more a vet presence for the pitchers and young hitters.    I think how good the pen is would go a long way at determining how good that team would be.  
 

The payroll of that team would be under 75 million I believe (or if it’s not, it’s not much more than that), nothing long term is an issue (only Stroman guaranteed beyond a few years), we have kept our best prospects and we are still set for the long term.

All of these moves are right there to be made.  The one argument is, what is Mullins worth.  It sounds like he’s valued highly but we obviously don’t know how high.

 

[Just Regular]

This will probably be the last transaction where Elias lacks information about the size of the 2023 playoff field.   When baseball resumes, about half the Top 50 free agents will still be out there and probabilities are affected if the 7th best American League team gets into the tournament.

Should the 2023 Orioles try, I believe they could hold their own with Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Minnesota, Seattle, Oakland and Texas all year long.