So many questions about Trey Mancini

[Moose Milligan]

On 12/4/2021 at 10:48 AM, wildcard said:

Interesting that you have completely blown off the question of his health.  

Interesting that you keep bringing it up like it's a cause for concern.  Unless the cancer comes back, I think he's settled anything that has to do with his health.

Next.

[waroriole]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s pretty hard to find good comps for Mancini, and I’d say his offensive performance in 2022 will have a lot of influence on his future value.  

Mancini has a career OPS+ of 115.  Last year Kyle Schwarber was coming off a very bad 2020 (88 OPS+) but got a 1/$10 mm contract based on his career 113 OPS+.   This year he put up 148 OPS+ but in 113 games.   I’m hearing he may get 3/$60 mm.   

David Peralta had a 115 OPS+ through 2019, when he signed an extension for 3/$22 mm.   He was a little older than Mancini; the extension covered his ages 32-34 seasons.  Mancini will be 30 this year.   

Then you have a guy like Wil Myers who had a 110 OPS+ through 2016 including 115 OPS+ that year, and signed for 6/$83 mm including $22.5 mm/yr for three FA years.   

Mark Trumbo had a career 113 OPS+ and was coming off his 47 homer, 122 OPS+ campaign when he signed for 3/$37.5 mm with the O’s.   Not clear he could have got close to that elsewhere.  

Long and short, Mancini is in a sort of in-betweenish spot, and how he does in 2022 will matter a lot to his FA value.   

 

 

I think what this shows is that the price for this type of player is falling dramatically. Peralta is probably more in line with what Mancini could expect in an extension. Schwarber has shown a bit more power than everyone on here besides Trumbo. That, and his HR tear this year, is why he could receive a 3/60 type deal (though I’m skeptical).

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Interesting that you keep bringing it up like it's a cause for concern.  Unless the cancer comes back, I think he's settled anything that has to do with his health.

Next.

Trey will be tested several times a year by his oncologist.  If anything shows up it will be addressed immediately.  His involvement in baseball could be put on hold.  Hopefully nothing shows up.   But after stage 3 cancer it is not something that can be ruled out.   Any GM offering an multi year contract to Trey has to evaluate the risk of some kind of recurrence.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, wildcard said:

Trey will be tested several times a year by his oncologist.  If anything shows up it will be addressed immediately.  His involvement in baseball could be put on hold.  Hopefully nothing shows up.   But after stage 3 cancer it is not something that can be ruled out.   Any GM offering an multi year contract to Trey has to evaluate the risk of some kind of recurrence.

For someone who's such a propeller hat beanie lollipop guild member, this sure is sad. 

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

For someone who's such a propeller hat beanie lollipop guild member, this sure is sad. 

I have a lot of experience with loved ones having cancer.   Once it gets to the lymph system it is very dangerous and unpredictable.  Here is what a quick search on the  internet says:

Stage III colon cancers have spread to nearby lymph nodes, but they have not yet spread to other parts of the body. Surgery to remove the section of the colon with the cancer (partial colectomy) along with nearby lymph nodes, followed by adjuvant chemo is the standard treatment for this stage.
A stage III colon cancer has about a 40 percent chance of cure.

What Frobby has done twice is ignore Trey's cancer.  I don't think any GM can do that.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I have a lot of experience with loved ones having cancer.   Once it gets to the lymph system it is very dangerous and unpredictable.  Here is what a quick search on the  internet says:

Stage III colon cancers have spread to nearby lymph nodes, but they have not yet spread to other parts of the body. Surgery to remove the section of the colon with the cancer (partial colectomy) along with nearby lymph nodes, followed by adjuvant chemo is the standard treatment for this stage.
A stage III colon cancer has about a 40 percent chance of cure.

Fair enough.  

But that information doesn't speak to things such as age and overall health.  Mancini, I'm assuming, would be in the 99th percentile for someone who's overall health would help him in a fight against cancer.  

55+ and overweight?  Yes, I'd believe those numbers.  But for someone who's in 29 and excellent physical condition to start with, I think Mancini's odds are better.  

[Aristotelian]

52 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Interesting that you keep bringing it up like it's a cause for concern.  Unless the cancer comes back, I think he's settled anything that has to do with his health.

Next.

Unless you are a doctor or can cite any studies ruling out any long term effect of chemo on high level athletes I would say that question is not settled at all. We know that he was able to come back and put up a 1 WAR season at the low end of his career floor/ceiling, nothing more. 

[wildcard]

29 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Fair enough.  

But that information doesn't speak to things such as age and overall health.  Mancini, I'm assuming, would be in the 99th percentile for someone who's overall health would help him in a fight against cancer.  

55+ and overweight?  Yes, I'd believe those numbers.  But for someone who's in 29 and excellent physical condition to start with, I think Mancini's odds are better.  

Trey was young and in excellent healthy when he got cancer.  So that is not how cancer works.  I agree that being is great health helps with recovery.  But it will not necessarily prevent a recurrence which could put his baseball career on hold.

Like I said any cancer that gets into the lymph system is unpredictable.  That said we all hope for the best for Trey.

[Sports Guy]

Yes, it likely will be a factor for him.

No, we shouldn’t even worry about it, contract wise, because there is zero reason to keep him around.  You don’t pay a player that does what he does a second contract.(or in this case, a FA contract)

[LA2]

It's a terrifying topic and, I feel, insensitive to discuss it in this way. I apologize to Trey if he happens to be reading this thread. I hope we can lay off, please.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, LA2 said:

It's a terrifying topic and I hope Trey isn't reading this thread. I hope we can lay off, please.

Trey knows more about this than any of us. This doctors have explained it to him in great detail.  Don't think this thread would tell him anything new.   I have been through it with relatives.  The only way to make good decisions is to understand your situation.

[LA2]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Trey knows more about this than any of us. This doctors have explained it to him in great detail.  Don't think this thread would tell him anything new.   I have been through it with relatives.  The only way to make good decisions is to understand your situation.

Of course. But it's not the information I'm referring to. It's the etiquette: it's not being able to get beyond fans viewing and discussing him mainly through the lens of his illness despite an incredible effort to defeat it.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, it likely will be a factor for him.

No, we shouldn’t even worry about it, contract wise, because there is zero reason to keep him around.  You don’t pay a player that does what he does a second contract.(or in this case, a FA contract)

I don't know if there is zero reason to keep Trey around.  This is a franchise that just added Odor and Lyles.  They are looking for unvalued players that can help them.

Trey is unvalued now became for his health situation and his down season in 2021. But he is position to have a good 2022 with a good off season. His value could increase. That could make him more tradable.  If the O's have him on a contract for 2023 he could be more valuable then if he is just a two month rental.

Santander and Hays have been injury prone.  It would be nice if they break that trend and are healthy but can the O's count on that.  Probably not.   Stowers may debut sometime in wth 2022 season but he is unproven also.   That is a lot of moving part that could affect the DH spot for the O's.   Elias probably needs to  see how it all develops to help him determine  his best deal as the season unfolds.

There may be reasons to hold on the Trey until his value peaks.  And to extend the O's control of him.

[HowAboutThat]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Interesting that you keep bringing it up like it's a cause for concern.  Unless the cancer comes back, I think he's settled anything that has to do with his health.

Next.

I’m surprised that you are so dismissive of concerns about Trey’s health.

Any GM who might be interested in Trey would of course use his medical history as a way to offer less of a trade return.

Cancer Has a terrible way of coming back. Trey has the best medical care available, which means that if it does come back it will be caught almost immediately. But it will still have come back, and will still require an indefinite but long amount of treatment. And we don’t know when or if.
Being aware of that is just due diligence on the part of any GM who might be interested.

It is impossible that Trey Is worth as much now as he would be if he had never had cancer, and it is highly unlikely that any GM would be interested in trading for him with his current circumstance.

I love Trey, I really think of him as one of those rare really good people, and he is very easy to root for. But the specter remains, and that’s just the way it is.

[HowAboutThat]

56 minutes ago, LA2 said:

It's a terrifying topic and, I feel, insensitive to discuss it in this way. I apologize to Trey if he happens to be reading this thread. I hope we can lay off, please.

I have made a comment or two on this thread, but I do completely agree. However, if the subject of Trey As a trade piece arises, it is impossible to ignore all the factors involved.