How good can the 2022 lineup be?

[Orioles0615]

11 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Once AR is up, this could be a really fun lineup to watch. The starting pitching is a whole different animal, but this lineup should be exciting. 
 

1. Mullins CF L

2. Hays LF R

3. AR     C  S

4. Mountcastle 1B  R

5. Mancini        DH  R

6. Santander    RF  S

7. Urias             2B  R

8. Odor            3B   L

9. Mateo          SS  R

Mckenna, Guiterrez, Backup C, Stewart

You can rearrange Hays, Mountcastle, and Mancini. I just like Hays’ “speed” at #2 and think he’s poised for a breakout year. The lineup has good L/R balance. The bottom of the lineup isn’t terrible and has upside. It should give Mullins more RBI opportunities. I’m not sure if we go with a 4 man bench. Stewart or Stowers could slot right into Santander’s spot if he’s traded or injured. Guiterrez would play 3B vs LHP, and be a late game sub. 
 

If there isn’t a rule 5 draft, then I see it much more likely to have a 4 man bench, since we won’t have a non optional arm in the bullpen. 

I can't be the only one that thinks 6-9 is a black hole

[sportsfan8703]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

No offense but this is a really bad line of thinking and a poor way to build an offense.

Luckily it seems like the Os understand this and are valuing OBP With the younger guys they are drafting and bringing into the organization.

Of course nobody is ever going to say they don’t won’t a team of high OBP guys but who has that and what’s their payroll? SLG is the best way to build a team in our ballpark. Being as we have 30 HR potential from our CF and C, we are already ahead of the curve. 
 

Honestly, we’re not that far off with our lineup and our bullpen. But when you have Means, and ?s behind him, it’s really tough to win. Our rotation, like most teams, is what is going to hold us back. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Of course nobody is ever going to say they don’t won’t a team of high OBP guys but who has that and what’s their payroll? SLG is the best way to build a team in our ballpark. Being as we have 30 HR potential from our CF and C, we are already ahead of the curve. 
 

Honestly, we’re not that far off with our lineup and our bullpen. But when you have Means, and ?s behind him, it’s really tough to win. Our rotation, like most teams, is what is going to hold us back. 

Slugging is not the best way to build a team in our park.  In fact, because power comes so easy in our park, it makes it easier to hit homers.

You need guys to get on base.  
 

And yes, they are very far off with their lineup and their pen.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Orioles0615 said:

I can't be the only one that thinks 6-9 is a black hole

I don’t see anything wrong with 6-7.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 hours ago, Orioles0615 said:

I can't be the only one that thinks 6-9 is a black hole

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

Urias, Guiterrez, and Mateo, are all out of options. DJ Stewart has one.
 

I think Stewart starts in AAA if everyone is healthy because we’ll go with a 3 man bench likely and McKenna is the backup CF. 
 

If we were to add a SS, then that likely means Guiterrez gets DFAd. That’s probably why we didn’t sign Galvis before he went to Japan. I do hope there is a vet SS we can bring to ST on a milb deal. 

[HowAboutThat]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

I just went through this yesterday.  The number of runs we scored per homer was very low.  That’s because we don’t put enough guys on base.   It’s that simple.  

It is so simple that everyone ignores it and jumps into the home run cult.

Nate Mclouth had 12 home runs in 2013. 12. He had a 100 WRC and was worth 2.3 WAR. And only cost 2.75 million. Home runs are nothing. Let’s have a guy who hits for average( which  Odor, btw, doesn’t and never did.) but the fools making the decisions are ignoring what we need.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Philip said:

It is so simple that everyone ignores it and jumps into the home run cult.

Nate Mclouth had 12 home runs in 2013. 12. He had a 100 WRC and was worth 2.3 WAR. And only cost 2.75 million. Home runs are nothing. Let’s have a guy who hits for average( which  Odor, btw, doesn’t and never did.) but the fools making the decisions are ignoring what we need.

Homers have their place.  But I think the wOBA numbers above tell it all.   Odor’s projected wOBA of .299 would be second worst in the starting lineup, ahead of only Mateo.   His homers haven’t outweighed his lousy OBP for several years now.   They did in 2016 (.336 wOBA, .296 OBP).   He had an OK OBP in 2015 (.316) and 2018 (.326) and put up a decent wOBA those two years (.334 and .325).   I’d take any of those, but it’s not likely Odor can achieve that again.   I hope he does.  
 

[waroriole]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t see anything wrong with 6-7.   

It’s better than what we’ve had, but Santander was awful last year and Urias had no track record that would’ve made us think he would have the kind of season he had last year. 

[sportsfan8703]

On 12/4/2021 at 9:42 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

Once AR is up, this could be a really fun lineup to watch. The starting pitching is a whole different animal, but this lineup should be exciting. 
 

1. Mullins CF L

2. Hays LF R

3. AR     C  S

4. Mountcastle 1B  R

5. Mancini        DH  R

6. Santander    RF  S

7. Urias             2B  R

8. Odor            3B   L

9. Mateo          SS  R

Mckenna, Guiterrez, Nottingham,  Stewart

Bump for adding Nottingham. If we were to add a vet IF, preferably that can play SS, then Stewart could be optioned to begin the season, or Guiterrez gets DFA’d. It already seems though that we’ve chosen the long term “potential” of Guiterrez over a vet short term option(Galvis). 

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 12/5/2021 at 6:18 PM, waroriole said:

It’s better than what we’ve had, but Santander was awful last year and Urias had no track record that would’ve made us think he would have the kind of season he had last year. 

This is a perfect encapsulation of a certain OH dynamic:

• Guys who play well in a given season are bound to regress
• Guys who play poorly in a given season have found their new normal / true talent level

[sportsfan8703]

We hit 195 HR last year and finished 17th in MLB. #5 finished with 228 HR. #10 finished with 219 HR.

I think we can get real close to the top 10. AR should be a +10 improvement over what we had. A full season of Urias could be an overall +5 improvement. If we give Odor, Franco type ABs, then I think he could be +10(not talking about BA).

Idk what our team OPS will be, but we’re going to hit the ball out the park next year.  
 

 

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We hit 195 HR last year and finished 17th in MLB. #5 finished with 228 HR. #10 finished with 219 HR.

I think we can get real close to the top 10. AR should be a +10 improvement over what we had. A full season of Urias could be an overall +5 improvement. If we give Odor, Franco type ABs, then I think he could be +10(not talking about BA).

Idk what our team OPS will be, but we’re going to hit the ball out the park next year.  

I care more whether our OBP will improve .    Adley will help a great deal with that.   Adding Odor will not.  

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I care more whether our OBP will improve .    Adley will help a great deal with that.   Adding Odor will not.  

OPS by position last year,

Catcher - .635

3B - .637

2B - .527 

I expect we will se big improvements in those areas if Urias, Odor/Guiterrez, and AR, primarily fill out those positions. 

[interloper]

On 12/8/2021 at 12:19 PM, BohKnowsBmore said:

This is a perfect encapsulation of a certain OH dynamic:

• Guys who play well in a given season are bound to regress
• Guys who play poorly in a given season have found their new normal / true talent level

Mullins is an interesting case study of both of these things. He played poorly in several seasons and it turns out that was NOT his new normal, and we're expecting that regression in 2022. If he doesn't regress he'll have really beaten the OH odds by defying both.