Fangraphs Os top 45 prospects

[Sports Guy]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-45-prospects/

[Frobby]

By Fangraphs’ valuation methodology, that puts the value of our system at $322 mm.   That’s the highest of the 13 systems they have ranked so far.   Still, for me it’s a little disappointing.   I would have hoped for slightly higher grades for Westburg/Kjerstad/Stowers, and some more depth.   Last year we had 47 players at 35+, this year only 45.   
 

Last year $322 mm wouid have ranked 4th, behind Tampa ($558 mm), Detroit ($360 mm) and Miami ($330 mm), with Minnesota close behind at $314.5 mm.   Detroit had some graduations and is valued at $222 mm this year.   The other three haven’t been graded yet this year.   At present the second most valuable system of the ones graded is Pittsburgh at $294 mm.

[Sports Guy]

 

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Maybe if he was healthy more often...

[Frobby]

I always enjoy the Fangraphs write ups because they give you some details behind their thinking.   Saying that, I’m really surprised to see Lowther entirely off their list, and there’s lots of guys I could question.   The reports on Rutschman and Rodriguez couldn’t be more glowing.   

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I always enjoy the Fangraphs write ups because they give you some details behind their thinking.   Saying that, I’m really surprised to see Lowther entirely off their list, and there’s lots of guys I could question.   The reports on Rutschman and Rodriguez couldn’t be more glowing.   

If the write-up on Grayson is correct its hard to see him spend more than a month at AAA.

On Lowther,  he will be 26 on April 30  and has not done well at AAA yet.   That makes it hard for him to make prospect lists IMO.  But he will get his chances this season to show he can be a major leaguer.

[btdart20]

The DL Hall write up doesn't seem to match the FV score.  Guess he's adding in some injury risk to the final score.

I would rank higher risk guys (like Bautista) above guys with lower ceiling, bench/utility players (like Joseph Ortiz).  

[Tony-OH]

22 hours ago, wildcard said:

If the write-up on Grayson is correct its hard to see him spend more than a month at AAA.

On Lowther,  he will be 26 on April 30  and has not done well at AAA yet.   That makes it hard for him to make prospect lists IMO.  But he will get his chances this season to show he can be a major leaguer.

What are you talking about? You know way more about him to have that uneducated opinion.

[RZNJ]

I read it as Wilcard stating why some sites might not have him ranked. I didn't take it as a criticism for you or anyone else having him ranked higher.  Of course, Wildcard can speak for himself. 

[wildcard]

20 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

What are you talking about? You know way more about him to have that uneducated opinion.

National rankers don't know him like you do.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, wildcard said:

National rankers don't know him like you do.

Yet you said, "he will be 26 on April 30  and has not done well at AAA yet.   That makes it hard for him to make prospect lists IMO. ". Now if you meant, it makes it hard for national people to not put them on the list, that's different, but that's not what you said.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Yet you said, "he will be 26 on April 30  and has not done well at AAA yet.   That makes it hard for him to make prospect lists IMO. ". Now if you meant, it makes it hard for national people to not put them on the list, that's different, but that's not what you said.

Yes, that is what I meant.  I didn't even think it would be about your list.

Your list is different then any other list.  You know the most about the O's and scout them.   Most lists will not have Basallo, Pinto and Hernandez as high as you do.   Its because you know the scouts and have more  knowledge than national ranker do.   I don't always agree with your rankings but I always respect why you rank them the way you do.  And you know more about the whole subject than I do.

When you announce your list I never get them right.  I don't have your knowledge and I think differently because of that.  I go more on how close certain players are to the majors.   No way I could look at a guy  in the Dominican maybe 4 years from the majors and rank him high.   Its just not in me to do that.  That doesn't mean I think you are wrong. 

A  year or two ago I was thinking Kremer would be in the top 10.  As you announced I would think Kremer has to be next.  You had him lower.   And we saw what happened to him during the season.  You got it right.  I didn't think he would have the problems he did.

Don't think I am trying to get under your skin when I rank Bradish and Baumann higher than you do.  I just rank guys close the majors higher.   I don't have the ability to look at young players the way you do.  I see that Baumann is being ranked lower have several rankers.   But that is just not  how I think.

 

[Pickles]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

By Fangraphs’ valuation methodology, that puts the value of our system at $322 mm.   That’s the highest of the 13 systems they have ranked so far.   Still, for me it’s a little disappointing.   I would have hoped for slightly higher grades for Westburg/Kjerstad/Stowers, and some more depth.   Last year we had 47 players at 35+, this year only 45.   
 

Last year $322 mm wouid have ranked 4th, behind Tampa ($558 mm), Detroit ($360 mm) and Miami ($330 mm), with Minnesota close behind at $314.5 mm.   Detroit had some graduations and is valued at $222 mm this year.   The other three haven’t been graded yet this year.   At present the second most valuable system of the ones graded is Pittsburgh at $294 mm.

I kind of failed to get back to you in the other thread about this, but I thought about it a bit, and I'm not sure if there is a "better" way to make a cumulative tally.

But I still think this is a very blunt instrument.

I appreciate they value hitters and pitchers of the same prospect ranking differently, but we can all agree it goes beyond that.  It paper overs so much risk variance; a 17 year old Dominican 45 is a different kind of 45 than a college junior draftee in AAA.

[Frobby]

Back to Lowther, it really seems over the top to write him under the 35+ grade.   Fangraphs was never that high on him, only grading him at 40 going into last season.   But anyone who closely followed the O’s knows he got shuttled around, had some arm issues and pitched pretty well in the final few starts.     Considering some of the guys who rated a 35+ grade, I just don’t see how Lowther could fall below that group.   

[MurphDogg]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

Back to Lowther, it really seems over the top to write him under the 35+ grade.   Fangraphs was never that high on him, only grading him at 40 going into last season.   But anyone who closely followed the O’s knows he got shuttled around, had some arm issues and pitched pretty well in the final few starts.     Considering some of the guys who rated a 35+ grade, I just don’t see how Lowther could fall below that group.   

I agree, and feel similarly about Yusniel Diaz. While both had lost seasons in 2021 (following literal lost seasons in 2020) and have question marks and red flags, their history of success in Lowther's case and raw talent in Diaz's case still merits mentioning.