What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Anthony Santander?

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Odor is 28, has a career rWAR of 6.8, career high of 2.7, career OPS+ of 88, career OBP of 289.

Santander is 27, has a career rWAR of 2.6, career high of 1.5 (not counting his fine 37 games in 2020 {1.6}), career OPS+ of 97, career OBP of 290.

His 2020 was really good but if you look at the total body of work it isn't dissimilar to Odor.

I don't know if 15 WAR would be unprecedented by someone with his career to date, but it's pretty darn unlikely.

I'm just guessing here but I don't think the list of position players that managed 15 WAR in a three season span is all that large.

ESPN has 35 players at 5 WAR or above in 2021.

39 in 2019

32 in 2018

https://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders

 

Regarding Odor and Santander, look at their career arcs.

Santander's upside is probably 30+ HRs, good RF defense, and a mid to high 800 OPS, short on OBP.  He's extremely unlikely to do that, especially strung across several seasons.  But it's well within the realm of possibility.

Again, I'll take that over some rando 45 from Miami.

[Aristotelian]

I definitely would have kept the '20 version of Santander over two Bradish types. Not sure about the '21 version. No doubt his value has plummeted but I'm also not sure what two more mid level back end prospects gets us. We've already got Akin, Zimmerman, Baumann, Lowther, and Wells, plus Bradish himself and Pinto, Rom, Peek etc. The MLB team only has five rotation spots and hopefully the top three are taken by guys better than all the names on this list. Does two more names on the list move the needle for us in any way? At that point I can see why Elias decided to bet on Santander's upside.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm just guessing here but I don't think the list of position players that managed 15 WAR in a three season span is all that large.

ESPN has 35 players at 5 WAR or above in 2021.

39 in 2019

32 in 2018

https://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders

 

Figure that 1.8 in 2020 was the equivalent to 5.0 in a full year.   So, 11.8 for 2019-21.   Only 11 players reached 11.8 fWAR (I’m using that flavor because their leaderboard can do multiple years): Semien, Soto, Bogaerts, Betts, Ramirez, T. Turner, Harper, Acuna, Story, Realmuto, Freeman.   I don’t see Santander reaching that level.   If he was worth 9 WAR the next three years that would be a 90th percentile outcome for him IMO.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Regarding Odor and Santander, look at their career arcs.

Santander's upside is probably 30+ HRs, good RF defense, and a mid to high 800 OPS, short on OBP.  He's extremely unlikely to do that, especially strung across several seasons.  But it's well within the realm of possibility.

Again, I'll take that over some rando 45 from Miami.

Santander has one season with an above average bat, and that was 37 games.  His defense is deteriorating.  There is nothing in his career arc that looks like he can become one of the better players in the league for three years.  Now this is baseball so sure, it could happen.  But Odor is only a year older and does have three seasons of above average worth (2 rWAR).

 

 

I'm certainly not in love with Odor either mind you.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Figure that 1.8 in 2020 was the equivalent to 5.0 in a full year.   So, 11.8 for 2019-21.   Only 11 players reached 11.8 fWAR (I’m using that flavor because their leaderboard can do multiple years): Semien, Soto, Bogaerts, Betts, Ramirez, T. Turner, Harper, Acuna, Story, Realmuto, Freeman.   I don’t see Santander reaching that level.   If he was worth 9 WAR the next three years that would be a 90th percentile outcome for him IMO.

I figured it was just easier to skip 2020.

 

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Santander has one season with an above average bat, and that was 37 games.  His defense is deteriorating.  There is nothing in his career arc that looks like he can become one of the better players in the league for three years.  Now this is baseball so sure, it could happen.  But Odor is only a year older and does have three seasons of above average worth (2 rWAR).

 

 

I'm certainly not in love with Odor either mind you.

If I had to guess who has the better odds of a 2+ rWAR season, I’d bet on Santander.   But you never know.  

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I figured it was just easier to skip 2020.

 

If I could sum up 2018, 2019 and 2021 automatically, I would have done that.   

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If I had to guess who has the better odds of a 2+ rWAR season, I’d bet on Santander.   But you never know.  

Sure, but I'd bet the under for both of them.

I don't think Santander is capable, at this point, of putting up the defensive value he'd need to get to a 5 WAR level with what his offensive game is.

If we had someone pushing him I'd be willing to let him walk. 

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Figure that 1.8 in 2020 was the equivalent to 5.0 in a full year.   So, 11.8 for 2019-21.   Only 11 players reached 11.8 fWAR (I’m using that flavor because their leaderboard can do multiple years): Semien, Soto, Bogaerts, Betts, Ramirez, T. Turner, Harper, Acuna, Story, Realmuto, Freeman.   I don’t see Santander reaching that level.   If he was worth 9 WAR the next three years that would be a 90th percentile outcome for him IMO.

Your odds line up with mine.  90% for 3 WAR.  Maxed out 4-5.

The issue is how often that happens.  Very rarely for sure.

[wildcard]

So far what Santander  and Hays have shown is that when they are healthy they can put up big numbers.   But when they play hurt they their production is below average.    

If I am projecting either player for 2022 I have to project that they will be hurt for some part of the season.   If they can be IL'd  until they are healthy and Stowers is ready for the majors it probably benefits the team.

[BRobinsonfan]

I voted between .720 - .759 on a coin toss.  I think he'll be on the upper end of that range or the lower end of the .760 - .799 range.  He's still young, so it's not unreasonable to think that he hasn't reached his true mean yet... still with all things Orioles I have learned to temper my natural enthusiasm with a healthy dose of pessimism.

 

[btdart20]

I think Santander can be around what he did in 2020.  He's 27 which is typically peak performance.  EV and HardHit% both increased in 2021.  LA at 18 which is good.  The biggest change seems to be significantly more grounders and less line drives.  Low BB rates will limit the OPS upside.  And the LF wall movement is downside unknown.  I don’t think he’ll get back to his K% and BB% rates of 2020.  So his OPS upside is limited with the lack of walks.  He has historically carried a low Babip.  But his xBA the last two years haven't followed.  There's a few pieces to the OPS.

2019 Babip was .285 with a .261 BA (xBA of .260)

2020 Babip was .248 with a .261 BA (xBA of .287)

2021 Babip was .275 with a .241 BA (xBA of .269)

I voted before really looking at the numbers… 

.775 is very likely even with LF wall changes.  Breaking .800 is a reachable with a little luck.  I voted with my orange shades on.

 

 

 

[OriolesMagic83]

I believe that a healthy Santander is likely to put up a .750-775 OPS.  Getting over .800 seems a stretch.  I'm not an expert at dWar, but I think its likely that if Stowers puts up a low .700s OPS, his value will be higher than Santander's due to his superior defense.  The only way I see the O's keeping Santander past the 2022 trade deadline is if one of Hays or Mullins is traded. 

[Big Mac]

I think Santander will be hard pressed to go much over an .800 OPS without significant plate discipline improvements.  Even looking at his 2019-2020 seasons combined, where he managed to hit 31 HR in 533 ABs, he put up an .807 OPS and a .261/.302/.505 slash line. 

If he somehow managed to get through an entire season healthy and have 600+ PAs I could see him hitting 35 HRs but his OPS would likely still just hover around .800.

I went with .720-.759, I see him generally as a .750ish OPS bat.  If his defense continues to decline that isn't very valuable.

[Frobby]

54% of those polled correctly put Santander in the .760-.799 band, as Santander came in at .773.