What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Rougned Odor?

[Frobby]

OK, we’re done with the players who actually can be expected to hit decently and now we’re into the guys we hope will surprise us.   Today, it’s Rougned Odor.   He’s got a .722 career OPS, but was at .665 last year and .623 in 2020.   He’s been as high as .798, but has been sub-.700 in 4 of his 8 seasons.   What are you expecting from Odor?

[btdart20]

Bottom 1% xBA, bottom 5% xOBP, bottom 21% xSLG in 2021.  Tons of regression and statistical deviation over the last few years.  Consistently dropping speed.  Maybe regression to mean (.720ish OPS)?  The only real plus I see is that he pulls the ball to RF 44+% on his career and 51.6% in 2021.  We're hoping for the same thing the Yankees did last year in their stadium.  He'll be 28, but I don't think he has more upside than 2016.  2018-2019 is probably the best we can hope for.  But unless the O's coaches can change his approach (less LA and better swings at breaking balls/off-speed pitches), it'll be more of the same (2020-2021).  I'm going chalk with .660-.689 range with a chance for less.

[Aristotelian]

He could be Chris Davis level bad. 

[Frobby]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

He could be Chris Davis level bad. 

But at a fraction of the cost!   Such a deal!

[Sports Guy]

Sub 700

[Pickles]

I went with 690-719.  I see I'm the high man too.

He's likely to run into a few fastballs, and you could see 30+ hrs in regular playing time.

Hopefully, he doesn't get regular playing time and he's kept to under 300 abs.

[BRobinsonfan]

I picked .660 to .689... but only because the option to select, "Name most likely to be used as a Handle  by the successor to Drungo Hazewood" on OH in 50 years was not an option. 

 

 

[Sports Guy]

I’m still holding out hope he doesn’t make the team.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m still holding out hope he doesn’t make the team.

Well, he is mostly a 2B  but Urias will out hits him.  Urias probably wins the 2B job.   That puts him competing with Gutierrez for 3B.   He's not as good defensive at 3B and they will hit for close to the same OPS (660-670).  

He is pretty much a backup 2B/3B.    I don't know if  Odor will be happy as a backup.   Elias is probably looking for someone better.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

44 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m still holding out hope he doesn’t make the team.

How bad would Odor need to be in spring training to not make the club?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

How bad would Odor need to be in spring training to not make the club?

I would like to see as bad as usual but that didn’t stop them signing him.

My larger hope is that Elias actually starts to value wins and brings in a real player.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I would like to see as bad as usual but that didn’t stop them signing him.

My larger hope is that Elias actually starts to value wins and brings in a real player.

That's why I think Odor is making the team unless there is some incident that occurs during spring training. Just let someone already in the organization have a chance playing 2B/3B. It's at a league minimum salary, but this a bad signing and yet another retread player. 

[btdart20]

Is this where we start talking about Vavra, Prieto, and anyone with a heartbeat in the minors? 

[SteveA]

1 minute ago, btdart20 said:

Is this where we start talking about Vavra, Prieto, and anyone with a heartbeat in the minors? 

We  haven't gotten to DJ Stewart yet.

[wildcard]

45 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

How bad would Odor need to be in spring training to not make the club?

Its a matter of if the O's have someone better.   Right now they don't.   He is their backup infielder.