What’s your 2022 OPS projection for Rougned Odor?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do feel really good about the depth of infield prospects Elias has assembled.   We don’t need every one of them to max out in order to fill out a roster over the next 2-3 years, we just need a decent success rate.   It’s impressive what Elias has done in that area, as the team had practically no infield prospects when he arrived.    

It was the obvious area he needed to address first and foremost.

[Frobby]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It was the obvious area he needed to address first and foremost.

I don’t disagree, though it was far from our only weak spot.   In any event, I think he’s done a very good job addressing the issue with the likes of Henderson, Mayo, Westburg, Ortiz, Vavra, Servideo, Prieto, and Hernaiz, along with Maikol Hernandez, Arias and others in the international class.   

[Just Regular]

I don't see Henderson and Westburg as two projected regulars as much as guys who together give a floor for one of the 3B/SS positions, about the same as I feel about the Norby group for 2B, pending a Termarr Johnson draft pick perhaps Pipping them all.

By next offseason, I hope to see us bid/win on an at/near-Xander/Dansby quality infielder, with SS seesawing in positional priority depending on what kind of MLB glove profiles our "Maybe" shortstops show this year.   If one of them can stay at SS, it lets the team browse any infielder, but I don't really look for Henderson/Westburg/Ortiz to be any kind of winning 2023 infield next to Adley-Mountcastle-Cowser-Mullins-Hays-(Santander or Kjerstad or R. Urias).

Then if circumstances warrant, I believe Elias wants a view of what pitchers are good in summer 2023 before deciding which one stuck on a bad team he wants to target to put next to Grayson/Means for a 3rd starter.   It's all relievers after 3 bulk guys, so DL Hall can be whatever he's going to be, just so long as he shows up for work.

The dream line next 17 months is like Xander Bogaerts $$$, Zack Wheeler-or-Aaron Nola TRADE, assuming the good 2022 Orioles can show enough that the talent accumulation phase doesn't start working on Years 5-10.   I believe at some point the peak Adley teams will enjoy a bought player at the Tejada 20 years ago/C. Davis 10 years ago price point, polished bats will rent a good pitcher, and the Dombrowski/gritty Bryce Phillies will sink, not swim.

I don't see anyone in the 2023 SP market who feels like a better probability for a FA recruitment than any younger star without a choice in the situation half a season later, or that the first half of 2023 Orioles will sink or swim on if they have Sean Manaea or not.    The Astros did lock up their home grown McCullers, but mostly I believe Decision Sciences argues for picking your pitchers in 2-3 year chunks, even when they are as great as Verlander and Cole.

[Sports Guy]

I don’t get the fascination with the ultra priced SS about to get a 7-10 year deal.  

[jabba72]

Kind of a rearranging the deck chairs type of move for me. I dont see any upside here. I guess best case scenario is he puts up an OPS over .700. Dont expect it to happen. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 2/15/2022 at 1:52 PM, SteveA said:

We  haven't gotten to DJ Stewart yet.

Is Stewart going to be the O's utility infielder? 

[Just Regular]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t get the fascination with the ultra priced SS about to get a 7-10 year deal.  

As adamant as you are about doing something at 2B for 2022 in a throwaway year, who do you want to be the 2023 SS?

I'll be pleasantly surprised if it becomes Henderson or Westburg (never mind Ortiz, though the nice reports are nice) because I think if the regime truly forecast them as MLB shortstops they wouldn't be working on positional flexibility in the mid-minors.   I hope I'm wrong.

Most of the best players should be on the field for the Orioles much of 2023, costing nothing, and you only get so many positions to amass value with a baseball team.

[Sanfran327]

I went total fanboy hoping a lefty bat with pop would play up at OPACY, but I forgot that he also played at Yankee Stadium in a better lineup and did literally nothing. To quote Ron Burgundy, I immediately regret that decision.

I'm not sure there's any evidence to suggest he'll post over the .665 he put up in 360 PAs in NY last year.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, jabba72 said:

Kind of a rearranging the deck chairs type of move for me. I dont see any upside here. I guess best case scenario is he puts up an OPS over .700. Dont expect it to happen. 

The O’s were incredibly inept offensively at the 2B position in 2021, posting a .527 OPs there as a team.   Some of that was just weird coincidence — for example Urias had a .563 OPS at 2B and .774 overall, and Mateo had a .656 OPS there and .748 overall.   But you had guys like Wilkerson, Jones and Leyba under .500.   Therefore, while a .700ish OPS at 2B wouldn’t seem like much, it actually would be an enormous upgrade of the production we got from that spot last year.

[Just Regular]

The BP Annual has the tidbit that 2021 Orioles second basemen's 45 OPS+ ties for third-worst Team 2B performance of all time.

It feels like Urias had more than 32 games there, but even with his help they have 192/245/282 as the 2021 team line for the position. 

[jabba72]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The O’s were incredibly inept offensively at the 2B position in 2021, posting a .527 OPs there as a team.   Some of that was just weird coincidence — for example Urias had a .563 OPS at 2B and .774 overall, and Mateo had a .656 OPS there and .748 overall.   But you had guys like Wilkerson, Jones and Leyba under .500.   Therefore, while a .700ish OPS at 2B wouldn’t seem like much, it actually would be an enormous upgrade of the production we got from that spot last year.

527 OPS is bad, but im not expecting Odor to improve the situation that much. A .700 OPS would be a revelation from him. I just dont see it. 

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Just Regular said:

As adamant as you are about doing something at 2B for 2022 in a throwaway year, who do you want to be the 2023 SS?

I'll be pleasantly surprised if it becomes Henderson or Westburg (never mind Ortiz, though the nice reports are nice) because I think if the regime truly forecast them as MLB shortstops they wouldn't be working on positional flexibility in the mid-minors.   I hope I'm wrong.

Most of the best players should be on the field for the Orioles much of 2023, costing nothing, and you only get so many positions to amass value with a baseball team.

Well first of all, in perfectly happy with Urias at second base this year.

There are a lot of things worthwhile to do at the positions.  Giving out an 8-10 year deal at 30-40M a year isn’t one of them.  

MIers tend to wear down in their early to mid 30s.  I would give Correa a 5-6 year deal and pay him 40M a year.  Far better than 10/330ish but he’s not signing that shorter deal.

 

[wildcard]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, in perfectly happy with Urias at second base this year.

There are a lot of things worthwhile to do at the positions.  Giving out an 8-10 year deal at 30-40M a year isn’t one of them.  

MIers tend to wear down in their early to mid 30s.  I would give Correa a 5-6 year deal and pay him 40M a year.  Far better than 10/330ish but he’s not signing that shorter deal.

 

You sound like a Yankees fan.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

You sound like a Yankees fan.

I sound like a Yankee fan when I say I don’t want to hand out record, long term deals?  That statement makes zero sense.  

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I sound like a Yankee fan when I say I don’t want to hand out record, long term deals?  That statement makes zero sense.  

Elias has told you what he is going to do.  You either don't have the patience for it or you don't believe in it.    

He is going to develop his team through the draft, Rule 5  and in the future the international signings.   When he gets close he will fill holes with FA but probably not on long term deals.   He will trade surplus or player that are getting too expensive for pitching and younger players.  

You have to know that.   You are an Orioles fan.  You know the reality of trying to compete with the high revenue team by signing big deals.   You know Elias is going with some version of what  Tampa  is doing.  A modified version.   But you keep fighting it.

After watching the O's floundering for years you should be able to see that Elias is halfway there.    He has the patience to get there.   And if you stay an O's fan he will take you there kicking and screaming all the way.