What’s your 2022 OPS Projection for Jorge Mateo?

[Frobby]

Jorge Mateo did fairly well in his limited stint with the Orioles, posting a .748 OPS in 116 PA.    Before that, he had a .545 OPS with the Padres in 121 PA in 2020-21, for an overall career OPS of .644 in 237 PA.    As a minor leaguer, his career OPS is .747, including .737 in AAA ( PCL).   So, he’s a bit of a wild card.   What do you see for him in 2021?

[Moose Milligan]

Higher end of the .689 range.  

He's really fun to watch, though.  That speed is incredible.

[wildcard]

I'd like to see Mateo be the starting SS.  I think he has the arm and range to do that.   Maybe with consistent playing time he can cut down on his errors.    Anything over a 700 OPS would be good.  A 750 OPS would be outstanding for him.

[Sports Guy]

Sub 720…floor is very low though.

Really unsure how high the ceiling is but I think what you see on the field is far more than what you will get.  His talent screams that he should be really good but I tend to doubt he will be much more than a guy who is valuable while he is cheap, in a utility type role.

[Aristotelian]

.720-.749, I think it's reasonable to hope he can continue his '21 level until proven otherwise. That said I would not be surprised by under .620.

[btdart20]

His speed is wasted on his aggressive approach to hitting.  Take a few walks and a lower LA would really help his OBP/Babip.

.630-.659

[Pickles]

Mateo's variability might be the highest on the team; I split the baby and went with 690-719.  That's a median prediction, but I believe it will certainly be wrong, as I feel he will either outperform or underperform such a prediction.

This is his last best chance to establish a ML career.  He's got the talent and I enjoyed watching him last year.

 

[sportsfan8703]

He’s definitely a player I’m excited to watch for next year. He looks that part except for his contact issues at the plate and his inconsistency at SS. The bigger ballpark could open up some singles to get stretched to doubles and so forth. He needs some “Bobby Dickerson” like coaching up in the worst way. 

[Frobby]

Almost 15% had Mateo (.646) in the .630-.659 range, but 83% guessed higher.   

[DrungoHazewood]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Almost 15% had Mateo (.646) in the .630-.659 range, but 83% guessed higher.   

If you go with the Marcels approach you'll be right a lot more than wrong: what have you done in the past (i.e. last 3-4 years), how old are you? He was 27, going into last year he had a .645 OPS. He ended up with a .646. His minor league numbers pointed towards a mid-.600s.

My projection for next year?  .645.

Edited October 13, 2022 by DrungoHazewood