What’s your 2022 OPS Projection for D.J. Stewart?

[Frobby]

D.J. Stewart had a pretty rough year in 2021, slashing .204/.324/.374 in 318 PA and striking out in 28.0% of his plate appearances.   For his career, he has a .214/.329/.403 slash line in 619 PA with a 26.6% K rate.  As a minor leaguer, his line was .255/.358/.432 with a 19.1% K rate.   So, the plate discipline and power have remained pretty steady, but his BA has plummeted as a major leaguer, largely due to a much higher K rate in the majors.    Can Stewart turn it around in 2022?   Surely he’s hearing footsteps.  He had knee surgery after the season, so he may have been hampered a bit by that during the year.   

[Moose Milligan]

Off the team, I hope.

[Aristotelian]

How do you adjust for the pitching in Japan? 

[btdart20]

I still shocked he got half a season of ABs in 2021... 

I suppose his BB% is close to legit (13ish).  Given that he's 28, it's tough to say he'll get under his career average K% (26.7).  Average (at best) speed, lefty, who gets the ball in the air more often than not means his babip is what it is.  Assuming all our other OFers are healthy, he'll get sporadic ABs to start the season.  And my long-shot dream is we trade an OFer or two because Stowers and/or Cowser is tearing up the minors!

.680-.709

 

 

[Pickles]

I'm going out on a limb here and making a negative prediction.  I think he plays himself out of ML baseball this year, and OPS under 680.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm going out on a limb here and making a negative prediction.  I think he plays himself out of ML baseball this year, and OPS under 680.

Well, it’s not that far out on a limb, considering Stewart has had two seasons at .698.  And, he was under .680 for big chunks of last season.  I tend to be a bit more optimistic, but your scenario is definitely possible.

[DrungoHazewood]

If you look at RF/LF/1B/DH with fielding problems and a sub-100 OPS+ through 27 you get 80-90% of them washing out of the league and never really amounting to much at the MLB level.

A few counter-examples include Jose Guillen, JT Snow, and David Segui.  Although you have to be a little suspect of anyone with a late-in-life surge in the 1990s and early 2000s.

[interloper]

DJ will shock the world and play out of his mind to a .800+ OPS because I voted for him to do so. You're welcome. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

DJ will shock the world and play out of his mind to a .800+ OPS because I voted for him to do so. You're welcome. 

It's going to be one of those Monkey's Paw things in which he does it for the Red Sox.

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, it’s not that far out on a limb, considering Stewart has had two seasons at .698.  And, he was under .680 for big chunks of last season.  I tend to be a bit more optimistic, but your scenario is definitely possible.

Ha, yeah I guess that isn't exactly a risky proposition.

Just kind of speaking to what sports guy and others had mentioned in prior threads, which is that people tend to give rosier projections of O's players.

Well, here's a case where I will take the opposite position and take a negative stance.

[Ruzious]

Depends on whether or not he's in the PCL or the International League. 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Depends on whether or not he's in the PCL or the International League. 

Well, technically those don’t exist anymore, but I catch your drift…

[Jagwar]

10 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Off the team, I hope.

Does .000 count for the last poll choice?

[sportsfan8703]

Stewart is going to have a tough time finding ABs on this team until Mancini is traded. I guess there is always the possibility of Santander getting hurt, but at this point I’d like to see McKenna get those ABs. Plus, Stowers is getting real close. AR will eventually steal some ABs at DH too. It’s just looking like a narrow window for Stewart to get consistent ABs as things come together for this team. 
 

The best move for him would be to lean up and really work on his COF defense, but without the bulk will his OBP even be what it’s at now?

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Stewart is going to have a tough time finding ABs on this team until Mancini is traded. I guess there is always the possibility of Santander getting hurt, but at this point I’d like to see McKenna get those ABs. Plus, Stowers is getting real close. AR will eventually steal some ABs at DH too. It’s just looking like a narrow window for Stewart to get consistent ABs as things come together for this team. 
 

The best move for him would be to lean up and really work on his COF defense, but without the bulk will his OBP even be what it’s at now?

He did have four HBP last year so yea, it's something to think about.