Buster Olney misses the point

[Oriolidae85]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Gold Gloves aren't given by LF/RF/CF, but rather just OF, correct?

Correct...and note that Ichiro played RF for most of the season. I think it should be based on LF/RF/CF and that it shouldn't be a popularity contest. But talk to the sponsors on that one.....

[AZOriole]

The O's did very well in that trade with the Astros, no doubt.

But nobody's talking about signing Teixeira because of what he could be traded for down the road when the team is still limping along below .500.

Great point. While everyone, including me, likes to think he'll finish out the contract in Baltimore, it's just as possible that the O's could still be a .500 team in 5 years. Then what? Does Tex force a trade, or do the Orioles pursue one? I think it may be difficult to trade 20M/year. At the very least, it limits the suitors.

[Oriolidae85]

The O's did very well in that trade with the Astros, no doubt.

But nobody's talking about signing Teixeira because of what he could be traded for down the road when the team is still limping along below .500.

I agree with you... if Teixeira is an Oriole, the FO will need to add a few key pieces around him over the next year. When Miggy came aboard they added Lopez and some others. Maybe targeting Sheets, an international SP and a Penny type would create enough competition to stir Baltimore above the .500 mark.

[WildDave]

There is been one constant throughout all of these signings that has been missing - I'll give you a hint, it starts with a "P"...

Exactly what I was thinking. We haven't managed to come up with anyone to pitch for this team except Bedard and Guthrie. How are you going to win like that?

[Fan4Life]

Well the conventional wisdom is that the O's 'master plan' with Tejada the centerpiece never worked because they didn't follow it up with other impact signings. Except they did, with Javy Lopez and Palmiero, and that still wasn't enough.

Now in the present case you're talking about potentially limiting the O's ability to chase premiere free agents to complement Tex much more dramatically than Tejada's deal ever did. I mean the numbers speak for themselves. Teixeira could be an even $100M larger commitment. You'd be nuts not to recognize the limitations that sort of resource allocation creates.

I think we could debate whether Raffy and Javy were REAL additions to Tejada. Javy probably was, but you can't fault the FO for not knowing his days were done.

If your assumption that the Orioles won't have resources available to add to Teix to put us over the top, then I would agree it's Tejada all over again shouldn't do it. I'm not sure I believe that's the case though.

[waroriole]

I think we could debate whether Raffy and Javy were REAL additions to Tejada. Javy probably was, but you can't fault the FO for not knowing his days were done.

If your assumption that the Orioles won't have resources available to add to Teix to put us over the top, then I would agree it's Tejada all over again shouldn't do it. I'm not sure I believe that's the case though.

That's the exact kind of thing you fault them for. If you give a FA a big contract it's your job to know if they are going to be able to live up to it.

[davearm]

I think we could debate whether Raffy and Javy were REAL additions to Tejada. Javy probably was, but you can't fault the FO for not knowing his days were done.

If your assumption that the Orioles won't have resources available to add to Teix to put us over the top, then I would agree it's Tejada all over again shouldn't do it. I'm not sure I believe that's the case though.

Really for me what it comes down to is, where is the baseball version of the Reggie White/Green Bay Packers success story?

Lots of teams have tried to replicate it. I can't think of one that's pulled it off, though I can name several that have tried and failed.

Maybe, just maybe Olney is right, and signing a savior-figure like Teixeira to some outrageous contract is not the way to climb up from the ashes in baseball.

[Fan4Life]

Really for me what it comes down to is, where is the baseball version of the Reggie White/Green Bay Packers success story?

Lots of teams have tried to replicate it. I can't think of one that's pulled it off, though I can name several that have tried and failed.

Maybe, just maybe Olney is right, and signing a savior-figure like Teixeira to some outrageous contract is not the way to climb up from the ashes in baseball.

If he had phrased his opinion as you have, it might have come across better. Also, again, I don't think Teix is a One-Stop-Shopping solution to getting us where we want to be. He is an integral part. If paying him $20MM+ per season will prevent us from adding other integral parts, they shouldn't do it.

[Stotle]

Really for me what it comes down to is, where is the baseball version of the Reggie White/Green Bay Packers success story?

Lots of teams have tried to replicate it. I can't think of one that's pulled it off, though I can name several that have tried and failed.

Maybe, just maybe Olney is right, and signing a savior-figure like Teixeira to some outrageous contract is not the way to climb up from the ashes in baseball.

Dave, regardless of whether he's right or not, he hasn't (in the form of an article) considered that there is a difference between 2009 and the other 6-9 years of a potential contract.

Now some of the points (which I've also throw out there in other threads) relating to the "wasted money" during the next 2 years or so are absolutely valid. But that is the cost/benefit analysis that needs to be taken into account. Buster's analysis on paper was "Orioles are not good now therefore it makes no sense to get Teix." Talk about disengaging with an issue....

[Dr. FLK]

Really for me what it comes down to is, where is the baseball version of the Reggie White/Green Bay Packers success story?

Lots of teams have tried to replicate it. I can't think of one that's pulled it off, though I can name several that have tried and failed.

Maybe, just maybe Olney is right, and signing a savior-figure like Teixeira to some outrageous contract is not the way to climb up from the ashes in baseball.

Not quite the best comparison. In baseball, you can rebuild due to the presence of a minor league system. If you're rebuilding, you can sign a guy to a long term deal with the plan that he'll still be contributing when OTHER pieces are entering their prime. You sign him now because he also brings credibility to your organization. You don't expect him to bring you up from the ashes single-handedly, because you aren't naive enough to think that. Instead, you continue adding young, talented pieces around him.

You can climb from the ashes when young talent materializes, develops, and reaches the big leagues. There are plenty of examples of that. And, if that young talent develops when you already have a slugging 1B, you're in better shape then if you hadn't signed him. If the young talent doesn't develop as quickly as you planned, you deal him for more young talent in a few years.

[Fan4Life]

That's the exact kind of thing you fault them for. If you give a FA a big contract it's your job to know if they are going to be able to live up to it.

He didn't get all that big a contract. He came off a season where he hit a career high 41 HR's and you think they should have known he was done? That's funny. One could speculate he was on the juice like most of MLB and getting off of it killed his career like many others. I don't think this was something anyone could reasonably predict.

[waroriole]

He didn't get all that big a contract. He came off a season where he hit a career high 41 HR's and you think they should have known he was done? That's funny. One could speculate he was on the juice like most of MLB and getting off of it killed his career like many others. I don't think this was something anyone could reasonably predict.

I'm not saying they should have known he was done, but they should have realized that 41 HR's was a career season. What had he really done before then? He had some good seasons, but never on that level. He had a decent start here, but again nowhere near that level. Furthermore, he was always known to be a poor defensive C. One of the big 3, I think Smoltz, refused to let him catch his games. The contract offered was a first come deal between him and IRod. Again, it's is the FO's JOB to know if a player can live up to the deal they're getting. If they can't then you better have a really good reason for offering them that deal.

[davearm]

Not quite the best comparison. In baseball, you can rebuild due to the presence of a minor league system. If you're rebuilding, you can sign a guy to a long term deal with the plan that he'll still be contributing when OTHER pieces are entering their prime. You sign him now because he also brings credibility to your organization. You don't expect him to bring you up from the ashes single-handedly, because you aren't naive enough to think that. Instead, you continue adding young, talented pieces around him.

You can climb from the ashes when young talent materializes, develops, and reaches the big leagues. There are plenty of examples of that. And, if that young talent develops when you already have a slugging 1B, you're in better shape then if you hadn't signed him. If the young talent doesn't develop as quickly as you planned, you deal him for more young talent in a few years.

The fact that baseball is different than football is the whole point.

Hey I get the blueprint you've laid out. I just haven't seen that blueprint be applied successfully anywhere yet. Have you?

[Fan4Life]

I'm not saying they should have known he was done, but they should have realized that 41 HR's was a career season. What had he really done before then? He had some good seasons, but never on that level. He had a decent start here, but again nowhere near that level. Furthermore, he was always known to be a poor defensive C. One of the big 3, I think Smoltz, refused to let him catch his games. The contract offered was a first come deal between him and IRod. Again, it's is the FO's JOB to know if a player can live up to the deal they're getting. If they can't then you better have a really good reason for offering them that deal.

I agree with most of this. My only caveat is that to me, the only REAL investment this organization has made in FA's in the last decade was with Tejada. The rest of them were poorly negotiated deals by an inept FO.. perhaps hamstrung by ownership.

[Stotle]

The fact that baseball is different than football is the whole point.

Hey I get the blueprint you've laid out. I just haven't seen that blueprint be applied successfully anywhere yet. Have you?

The Tigers signed Magglio/Pudge/Hoffman/Rogers over two offseasons, timed with the arrival of Bonderman/Verlander Robertson and some of the young bats and made the World Series. They've made some other silly moves since then, but that was a case of singing talent a year before you were ready for the "push".