Buster Olney misses the point

[JGuthrie46]

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster

Nats, O's shouldn't be in hunt for Teixeira

Buster clearly misses the issue about signing Tex. It's not about signing the best bat on the market, it's about signing the local guy to a long term deal to show the O's fan base that the O's management is serious about winning. And the end result of signing Tex means that the players will have more confidence in the Front Office in that they are serious about winning. Plus it will make the O's a more attractive option for future free agents. For some reason the national media has their blinders on to this fact and it's clearly illustrated by Buster's misconceptions.

A little shortsighted by Buster to not mention Matusz, Arrieta, and Tillman.

Lunacy? Only if you're Buster Olney

agreed, and we also dont' have anybody in the system right now that can hit and field like Mark can at 1B..

[hoosiers]

Our farm ranking via Baseball America:

2005: 25th

2006: 12th

2007: 22nd

2008: 24th

Baseball America's Organization Talent Rankings that is.

FWIW, the Rays were #1 in 2007. 10th in 2006, 9th in 2005....

Is the poster sure of this information?

[Stotle]

What is our rank for this coming year? I would guess 8-12

We find out in January when BA releases their list. That seems like a safe range.

[Lucky Jim]

To play devil's advocate, you could argue that Teix considering BAL for personal reasons (if true) could be a case of taking advantage of the market. Even though it's on a larger scale, price-wise, it may be a bargain compared to what you'd have to pay a comparable talent with no area ties.

In no way am I saying this is absolutely true, but there's an argument in there, somewhere.

That was exactly my argument - until we reached the current heights. I thought it was worth exploring with both Burnett and Teix due to the market advantage.

So, yeah. Agree 100%. (Which is why it was so easy for me to rationalize Magglio away like that.)

[Sports Guy]

Sure, you just need to buy the right pieces -- pieces that will be useful for a majority of the contract. You also have to select which of your young above-average talents you sign and which you move for more prospective young talent. BAL should be able to hover in the $90-120 mios payroll range with a perennial Top 5 (or at least top 10) minor league organization once everything is up and running.

It would be very challenging and would require good, hard work -- but it is certainly possible.

Yep....I don't want to hear it can't be done because it can.

One thing you can't do is sign the Danys Baez's of the world to bad contracts and lose draft picks on top of them.

[Lucky Jim]

Also: I think we're really overestimating the value of Teix's glove at first. It's nice to have, but it's mostly a luxury.

[geschinger]

Sure, you just need to buy the right pieces -- pieces that will be useful for a majority of the contract. You also have to select which of your young above-average talents you sign and which you move for more prospective young talent. BAL should be able to hover in the $90-120 mios payroll range with a perennial Top 5 (or at least top 10) minor league organization once everything is up and running.

It would be very challenging and would require good, hard work -- but it is certainly possible.

I know it can be done in theory, I'm just not sure it can be done in practice since your margin or error becomes that much thinner. Now if the payroll is going to baloon to a $120m my thoughts on the likelyhood of absorbing a ridiculous contract for Teix and still possibly winning would be different than if the payroll is in the 90-100m range that I think is where we'll max out at over the next 5 years or so.

[Stotle]

I know it can be done in theory, I'm just not sure it can be done in practice since your margin or error becomes that much thinner. Now if the payroll is going to baloon to a $120m my thoughts on the likelyhood of absorbing a ridiculous contract for Teix and still possibly winning would be different than if the payroll is in the 90-100m range that I think is where we'll max out at over the next 5 years or so.

You could do it on 90-100, as well. As SG pointed out, you can't waste resources. That means develop your own BP arms, don't lose picks unless it's in a calculated fashion. Offer arbitration when appropriate (and try and sell declining arb to players when appropriate). Don't be afraid to trade a talented young player. Be smart about who you lock up, and how you go about doing it.

[osfan83]

He doesn't miss the point, he just doesn't think sentamenatality is a good enough reason for a team trying to buid up from the bottom up to spend boku bucks on a FA.

Yes besaue thats the only reason we want him..It's not like he fills a hole or is good or anything.

[geschinger]

Yep....I don't want to hear it can't be done because it can.

A lot of things can be done in theory that are a lot harder to accomplish in practice. Until someone proves it can be done you only think it can be done.

One thing you can't do is sign the Danys Baez's of the world to bad contracts and lose draft picks on top of them.

Certainly that would be a prerequisite but we do have to be cognizant that it's not only the Danys Baez type players that can have bad contracts. Teixeira type players can be signed to bad contracts as well which we're rapidly approaching if we haven't already reached that point if the rumored numbers are accurate. I contend that it's hard to win with bad contracts no matter who the player is unless you have a ton of payroll to play with.

[Stotle]

A lot of things can be done in theory that are a lot harder to accomplish in practice. Until someone proves it can be done you only think it can be done.

Certainly that would be a prerequisite but we do have to be cognizant that it's not only the Danys Baez type players that can have bad contracts. Teixeira type players can be signed to bad contracts as well which we're rapidly approaching if we haven't already reached that point if the rumored numbers are accurate. I contend that it's hard to win with bad contracts no matter who the player is unless you have a ton of payroll to play with.

But the risk that Teixeira's contract would be bad (on the bust level) is much less than various other stars considering 1) his age, and 2) his position.

[lebowski]

According to the BA handbook, we were ranked:

2005: 25th

2006: 12th

2007: 17th

2008: 16th

[Stotle]

According to the BA handbook, we were ranked:

2005: 25th

2006: 12th

2007: 17th

2008: 16th

Those look right to me.

[Camden_yardbird]

Are the Orioles spending too much too go after Tex? Probably. Should they bend over and take it from the Red Sox and Yankees? No way, and that is what it looks like Olney want them to do.

[geschinger]

But the risk that Teixeira's contract would be bad (on the bust level) is much less than various other stars considering 1) his age, and 2) his position.

Maybe but I'm not so sure. He doesn't have the same kind of cushion either... He's not an elite offensive player like a Manny Ramirez or an ARod to where if you sign them to a ten year contract you could withstand a 10% drop in production and still have a contract that isn't awful. If Teix has a 10% drop in production at 33 or 34 years of age it makes it a horrible contract to have on the books and I know I'm in the minority but I do think there is a legitimate chance of obvious decline as he approaches his mid 30s.