Does the Fangraphs number count the loss of Bautista, even though the injury happened last year? Felix Bautista had 3 WAR last year and Kimbrel currently has -0.1 WAR. So that's 3.1 WAR right there. Bradish had 4.9 WAR last year and 1.1 WAR this year. Bradish's injury forced us to give a bunch of starts to Povich, who even after last night's excellent start has -0.6 WAR for the season (all numbers from BB-Ref). So that's another 4.4 WAR (4.9 - 1.1 + 0.6).
So I don't know how Fangraphs gets only 4.7 WAR total unless they aren't counting Bautista or their measure of WAR is very different from BB-Ref.
Taking out the COL (3) for each team, here's a comparison of the opponents' records the last ten games:
NYM 4-6
HOU 9-1
LAD 7-3
BAL (5-5) opponent total 20-10
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CLE 5-5
WAS 4-6
STL 3-7
NYY (5-5) opponent total 12-18
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This is as challenging a stretch for the O's as it looks at first glance. Fortunately, they do seem (sans research!) to play up to the competition, and with the MFYs lately, you never know. Fingers crossed...
Well it's best for the O's KC/Bos/Sea all stay in the WC race. i'll be happy if DET packs it in for the rest of the rest by the time the O's face them for 6, although they;ll still be trying to help Skubal on his Cy Young run..
Not incorrect. The record is correct, the pace to win I quoted is correct, the decline comment is correct, recent performance is more important.
You’re welcome to disagree, and that’s fine.
I wouldn’t agree about KC.
They remind me a little of us last season — yeah, they’re scoring runs, but they’re not actually that good offensively. They’re below-average by wRC+, which I think is a better measure of their offensive talent than runs scored. They’re so dependent on Witt, who is incredible of course, but it’s much easier in the postseason format to pitch around one guy or throw everything at him to neutralize him. Plus, such a young kid, who’s been driving them all year…that’s a lot to maintain throughout multiple playoff series as well.
Cleveland isn’t that good offensively either, of course, but with Kwan/Ramirez/Naylor, they’ve got 3 legit high-end hitters. And you can squint a see a little more with Fry, Noel, Gimenez, etc. than you can probably imagine KC getting from their lesser guys.
KC also has a genuinely bad bullpen, even with Erceg added to the mix. The starters are good enough, but it’s tough to make it work with a weak offense and a weak bullpen. By comparison again to CLE, I can envision Bibee and Williams stringing together enough good innings to let that bullpen eat up the ends of games — but I’m not sure I see KC being able to score enough (consistently) to keep the pressure off that bullpen.
I do think MIN has as good a shot as anybody. And I think the same is probably true of CLE, given that the rest of the league is just not that great.
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