The Westburg Theory

[Frobby]

Mullins has been worth 1.2 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR in 1/3 of a season.  So depending on which flavor of WAR you prefer, he’s either average or somewhat above average so far this year.   I don’t think he’s going to lose any significant playing time.  

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Westburg got off to a slow start at AA.   He has  a .247 average because of that slow start.  All his other offensive numbers are good and his defense in good but that  low average could have been enough for Elias to keep him at AA until Westburg improve it.    

But Elias promoted him to AAA anyway partly because in the last 30 days Westburg has a .295  average to go with the rest of his good numbers.   Elias ignored the low average for the year.

The O's starting pitching is what it is for a while.   Lyles, T Wells, Zimmerman, Bradish and Kremer are likely to give up 3 runs plus or minus in 4 to 6 innings and then the pen will finish the game give up one or no runs in an average game.   The offense will sputter with inconsistency and the team will lose on average 2 of 3 games.  Elias needs to do something.  He doesn't have any help available for the starters so his best bet is to try to improve the offense.

Stowers  got off to a slow starts AAA.   He has a .259 average because of that slow start.  All his other offensive numbers and his defense are good.  But in the last 30 days his average is .294.   Sound familiar?   

In this theory Elias promotes Stowers to play a corner outfield spot, Hays moves to CF and Mullins who is not hitting  .727 OPS moves to a back up role while the O's see whether that improves their chances to win.   Probably not a permanent move but just to see what happens.

I also could see Martin with his 830 AAA OPS promoted to play SS to see what he offers and Mateo moved to a UIF position because Mateo is not hitting.  Just to see what happens for a while.  Elias needs to improve the offense and these two moves that may help.

Do you think Elias makes either of these moves?

Benching Mullins for a rookie?

I mean, if you want to get worse that's probably a great place to start.

[waroriole]

Lol this is a wild assumption/small sample size thread, even for wildcard. No, Mullins is not being benched. Up until 2 weeks ago, he was hitting better than Mountcastle. 

[wildcard]

29 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What actions from either this year or the last four-odd years have convinced you that right now is the moment that Elias and his team are ready to make decisions not on 2023-beyond, but instead on the team's 2022 record? 

Taking a look at Stowers and Martin is both for the present and the future.

[wildcard]

30 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

He's not even doing that bad. His OPS is higher than several MLB teams and he is playing solid defense as every day CF.

They will not call it benching.   It will be giving him some time to re-set.  A breather.  And he will still start at times and always be available to pinch hit and be a defensive replacement.

[wildcard]

27 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Much of the Mullins hand-wringing is a combination of not quite digesting that offense is way down, the park is contributing to that, and unrealistic expectations that Mullins had permanently transformed himself into Mike Trout-lite.

On the other hand, I hope he's not a 93 OPS+ going forward.

Mullins is left-handed.  How is the park contributing to his offense being down.  The left field wall should not be affecting him.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Lol this is a wild assumption/small sample size thread, even for wildcard. No, Mullins is not being benched. Up until 2 weeks ago, he was hitting better than Mountcastle. 

We are 2 months into the season.  GMs often make promotions and adjustment at this point. 

[Pickles]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

They will not call it benching.   It will be giving him some time to re-set.  A breather.  And he will still start at times and always be available to pinch hit and be a defensive replacement.

You can call it whatever you want, but sitting one of your best players so he can "pinch hit" and be a "defensive replacement" is definitely going to be seen, rightfully so, as a benching.

This is just a really terrible idea.  So much so that I am offended by it.  LOL.

I mean, it makes no sense.  People complain the team isn't doing enough to win games now, and the solution it seems is to bench their best players for rookies, and Rule 5 guys.

Madness.

[wildcard]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mullins has been worth 1.2 rWAR, 0.7 fWAR in 1/3 of a season.  So depending on which flavor of WAR you prefer, he’s either average or somewhat above average so far this year.   I don’t think he’s going to lose any significant playing time.  

How much for Mullins WAR is for offense?

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You can call it whatever you want, but sitting one of your best players so he can "pinch hit" and be a "defensive replacement" is definitely going to be seen, rightfully so, as a benching.

This is just a really terrible idea.  So much so that I am offended by it.  LOL.

I mean, it makes no sense.  People complain the team isn't doing enough to win games now, and the solution it seems is to bench their best players for rookies, and Rule 5 guys.

Madness.

You are offended?   I am not suggesting that you lose any playing time.   

This is not the Mullins we saw last year.   He needs to adjust.  Take a breather.  Re-set.  I think he knows that more than anyone.  He will still start some games while he adjusts.  Just not everyday.  If he starts to hit he will be back in there most games.

[Pickles]

Just now, wildcard said:

You are offended?   I am not suggesting that you lose any playing time.   

This is not the Mullins we saw last year.   He needs to adjust.  Take a breather.  Re-set.  I think he knows that more than anyone.  He will still start some games while he adjusts.  Just not everyday.  If he starts to hit he will be back in there most games.

As others have pointed out, Mullins even playing as he has this year has been average to above average player.  Last year he was a star.

Benching him, cutting his playing time, etc. is a bad idea if your idea is to improve the team.  If you want to tank for a draft pick, it's probably a great idea.

[DrungoHazewood]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mullins is left-handed.  How is the park contributing to his offense being down.  The left field wall should not be affecting him.

So far this year 24.8% of his batted balls have gone to LF.

[DrungoHazewood]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

We are 2 months into the season.  GMs often make promotions and adjustment at this point. 

Why be so conservative?  I think you need to start mulling over releasing someone when they've gotten behind in the count 0-2 after consecutive PAs with homers.  You can't let slumps get out of hand and negatively impact the drive for 70 wins.

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

How much for Mullins WAR is for offense?

Baseball reference breaks that out for you on his player page.

[Frobby]

Just now, wildcard said:

How much for Mullins WAR is for offense?

1.   It doesn’t really matter.   The overall value of the player is what matters.   If some other guy supplies 5 more runs of offense but loses us 10 runs on defense, that doesn’t help anything.   

2.  BB-ref has Mullins with 0.9 oWAR, which includes an adjustment for the position he plays.

It’s entirely possible that we could find another outfield configuration where the third outfielder hits better than Mullins’ current .667 OPS.   To do it, we’d have to weaken our defense in two spots (Hays is not as good as Mullins in CF, whoever goes to the corner OF is not as good as Hays there).   It’s highly questionable that we’d have a net gain in that offense/defense trade off.  

And then there’s the whole question of whether you’re going to assume that Mullins is a .667 OPS guy going forward, or just a guy who’s going through a rough patch.   I think he’ll get considerably more leeway based on what he did last year.   I’m not going to say he’s sure to improve.   But he’ll be given every chance to do so.