Infield batting, besides 1B

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

Odor is not going to have any trade value. Is it impossible that someone would want him? No, but you aren’t getting anything for him. 
 

Odor will continue to play until they think the younger player is ready to play. 
 

On this team Mateo should continue to be the main SS because they have no one else. 

I didn't say anything about trading Odor.   But one way or another I don't expect him to be on the O's 2023 trade.

[eddie83]

Just now, Frobby said:

It’s crazy talk.   But I could see us going from below average to above average next year if Westburg and Henderson adjust well and Adley continues to improve.  

Sure. Once again I believe in the future but that is a best case scenario to say the least. 

Adley should give the club above average production at a position that is far below league average. It’s why he is so valuable. On some levels I would group the OF, 1B and DH together. Is it reasonable for that group to be as good next year? What will become of Mancini and Santander? Will Hays be as good? 

Then I would break down the remainder of the infield. If the (Big 5) maintain, Adley improves and better productivity from the infield then there is your above average offense.  To what extent is the question. 

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

You think they are going to lead the league in offense next year? 
 

I’m fairly excited for the future and I think the path is there but that is a heck of a leap. 

Last year 5 teams had a 5+ run offenses.  I think the O's can be at that level next year.

[Just Regular]

Certainly the 2021-2022 New York Yankees may get some imitation, and are benefitting from having traded offense for defense at SS this year, but Mateo's falling out of shouting distance of IKF's no great shakes Bat.

The stack of A Lot of Counting Stats + Entering Arb1 + Ideally a Backup Role I think means in 2023 Mateo will be too expensive for a reserve infielder.    It is still his first season of regular run, but unless there is second half growth I don't want him anywhere near the 2023 OD lineup.

If Mateo is the planet's 11th best fielding shortstop, it might carry being the 40th best hitting one, but not the 80th.

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, I don’t feel I’m too wrapped up in numbers.   You always have to consider both offense and defense in evaluating a player, and numbers help you do that.  There is always going to be some offensive contribution a player has to make no matter how good his defense is.  The better the defense, the less offense you need, and vice versa.   But there isn’t a player who has ever played the game who would be a starter even if his OPS were .000.    

I don't think Mateo will get close to .000

[eddie83]

6 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Certainly the 2021-2022 New York Yankees may get some imitation, and are benefitting from having traded offense for defense at SS this year, but Mateo's falling out of shouting distance of IKF's no great shakes Bat.

The stack of A Lot of Counting Stats + Entering Arb1 + Ideally a Backup Role I think means in 2023 Mateo will be too expensive for a reserve infielder.    It is still his first season of regular run, but unless there is second half growth I don't want him anywhere near the 2023 OD lineup.

If Mateo is the planet's 11th best fielding shortstop, it might carry being the 40th best hitting one, but not the 80th.

I wasn’t down on the Yankees going into the year. Because they didn’t spend the “experts” in the media were furious. It was obvious Cashman had a plan. 

That said I think the Yankees are getting a best case scenario season. It reminds me a little of the 2013 Red Sox. That team was more balanced. Judge has turned into Miguel Cabrera with a glove. They have holes in their offense. I don’t see any shot at a repeat next year. 
 

I don’t think the Orioles bats will be good enough to carry a glove like Mateo. That said I want to keep him. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Last year 3 teams had 5+ run offenses.  I think the O's can be at that level next year.

It’s always hard to say without knowing what the overall offensive environment will be.  Overall, offense is down 0.41 runs/game from 2021 to 2022.   It’s one thing to average 5 runs a game when the league average is 4.60; it’s another to do it when the league average is 4.19.   Who knows what tweaks MLB will make to the ball or whatever for 2023?

So, rather than putting it in a runs per game context, I’ll just say it would surprise me if the Orioles were one of the top 3 offenses in the league next year.   I won’t go so far as saying it’s impossible, especially before knowing what moves they make next winter.   

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Mateo will get close to .000

Neither do I.   I’m just citing the most extreme number imaginable.   Every player has some number they have to hit.   Put it this way: Mateo has hit .113/.175/.170 in June.   Do you think he’ll remain a starter all season if he continues at that pace?

[eddie83]

It’s only one stat but let’s use it here. OPS+
 

Mullins  95

Hays  136

Mountcastle  124

Mancini  128

Santander  124

 

Adley  80

 

Mateo 58

Odor 83

Urias  88

 

The team is at 95. Obviously this is not the entire roster but if healthy the main players. 
 

The top group has been healthy for the most part. It’s also the spot where changes are likely/possible. Mancini? Santander? Stowers? I have always thought loved Hays and I believe in his talent but is he this good? Will he stay on the field? 
 

If Trey is gone you can’t assume that Stowers equals out the loss. Now this is offense only, no defense in this evaluation. 
 

Clearly the issues are at infield and C. Adley should fix one spot, we can’t assume though the top group will be as good next year. Ryan should be. Mullins can be better. That said it’s not a lock. 

[jdwilde1]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You point out that Belanger was able to carry a weak bat because he was an elite defender.   Well yes, but to say he was an elite defender is an understatement.   By several metrics, Belanger is one of the top five most valuable defenders of all time, at any position.  He was worth 41.0 rWAR, 34.9 fWAR in his career despite having a 68 OPS+.   Even there, his 68 OPS tops Mateo’s current OPS+ by ten points.   And Mateo is not nearly the defender Belanger was, though he’s certainly been very good.  

I was getting ready to post something similar.  I know that Belanger is often used as an example of having an all-glove no-bat shortstop, but he was arguably the greatest defensive shortstop in the history the game.  To back that up,  from 1968-1978 he averaged 3.3 dWAR per season and 4.2 dWAR per 650 PAs.  He also retired with the highest career fielding percentage by a shortstop and is tied with Ozzie Smith for the most times in the live ball era leading the league in dWAR with six. I know most people point to Smith as the all time greatest defensive shortstop, but Belanger was really every bit as good and actually has a higher dWAR over a their best 10-12 year stretches.  Also, Smith only topped 3.5 dWAR once (4.8 in 1989) while Belanger topped 3.5 dWAR five times (high of 4.9 in 1975).  And I am not arguing that Belanger was better than Smith or that small differences in dWAR are definitive, but just making the point about how incredibly good Belanger was defensively.  

[Just Regular]

We'll see how Stowers-Gunnar-Westburg whet the appetite, but it feels like 8/9ths of a potentially strong lineup is in sight.

For me it'll be on the young veterans Adley-Mullins-Hays-Mountcastle (maybe Santander) to drive 2023 Run Production towards the top of the league if they can.

I don't feel Stowers-Westburg are High Probability MLB contributors at their mid-case yet like Gunnar has exploded into this season, but they have significant 2023 upside compared to other Bottom of Lineup bats around the league.

I'm hopeful Urias-Mateo-Vavra make a nice Bench.    Obviously Starting Position 9 remains open to Urias, Mateo or any better player $$$ can buy.

[eddie83]

Just now, jdwilde1 said:

I was getting ready to post something similar.  I know that Belanger is often used as an example of having an all-glove no-bat shortstop, but he was arguably the greatest defensive shortstop in the history the game.  To back that up,  from 1968-1978 he averaged 3.3 dWAR per season and 4.2 dWAR per 650 PAs.  He also retired with the highest career fielding percentage by a shortstop and is tied with Ozzie Smith for the most times in the live ball era leading the league in dWAR with six. I know most people point to Smith as the all time greatest defensive shortstop, but Belanger was really every bit as good and actually has a higher dWAR over a their best 10-12 year stretches.  Also, Smith only topped 3.5 dWAR once (4.8 in 1989) while Belanger topped 3.5 dWAR five times (high of 4.9 in 1975).  And I am not arguing that Belanger was better than Smith or that small differences in dWAR are definitive, but just making the point about how incredibly good Belanger was defensively.  

The Orioles also in general during his time had the best ERA in the sport. 
 

That’s not going to happen in 2023. 
 

Years ago I broke down the Orioles rank in ERA during specific time frames. It was just raw ERA. They were incredible at run prevention for about 15 straight years. Their formula was pitching and defense. It’s how they maintained their competitive play after Brooks, Frank, Boog etc all declined and/or left the team. Then Flanny, McGregor, Martinez over time replaced the Cuellar’s and McNally’s. Palmer was the constant. 
 

Then in the 80’s it unraveled. 

[Just Regular]

8 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

If Trey is gone you can’t assume that Stowers equals out the loss. Now this is offense only, no defense in this evaluation. 

The basic calculus of 2023 is Stowers being 50-75% of Mancini at 10% of the cost, and the team being able to afford two Jordan Lyles, or something from a nicer section of the store.

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

We'll see how Stowers-Gunnar-Westburg whet the appetite, but it feels like 8/9ths of a potentially strong lineup is in sight.

For me it'll be on the young veterans Adley-Mullins-Hays-Mountcastle (maybe Santander) to drive 2023 Run Production towards the top of the league if they can.

I don't feel Stowers-Westburg are High Probability MLB contributors at their mid-case yet like Gunnar has exploded into this season, but they have significant 2023 upside compared to other Bottom of Lineup bats around the league.

I'm hopeful Urias-Mateo-Vavra make a nice Bench.    Obviously Starting Position 9 remains open to Urias, Mateo or any better player $$$ can buy.

If the infield is league average offensively and Adley is who you think he is you are in business. 
 

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

The basic calculus of 2023 is Stowers being 50-75% of Mancini at 10% of the cost, and the team being able to afford two Jordan Lyles, or something from a nicer section of the store.

Sure. Also we are only looking at offense here. How good will Stowers glove be? If Santander is more of a DH type who plays some OF how will that impact him?