Would you take Jones Jr at full slot (or close to it) or Termarr Johnson at $1.5M under slot?

[ChosenOne21]

I've been pushing for Jones as much as everyone else, but I'm starting to come around to the idea of drafting Johnson underslot. I think a lot of people are sleeping on him and there's a good chance he ends up a better MLB player than Jones. End of the day, I'm still in the Jones camp, but I won't be upset if we take Johnson

[RVAOsFan]

I think the 1:1 pick is Lee, if Vegas odds shifted like they did last night then they know something.

I know it is easy to quickly say that Elias is doing this because of slot money but I am starting to think it’s for another reason.

Elias is scared to miss on a top 5 pick. Since he has been here he has drafted college bats with his first pick that profile as can’t miss guys.  Maybe not future all star guys but guys who are going to be major league regulars. I think that is how he views this draft, he thinks Lee has the best chance to not bust.

I know the Astros drafted high school guys in the first round but we haven’t seen it since he has been in Baltimore.

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I've been pushing for Jones as much as everyone else, but I'm starting to come around to the idea of drafting Johnson underslot. I think a lot of people are sleeping on him and there's a good chance he ends up a better MLB player than Jones. End of the day, I'm still in the Jones camp, but I won't be upset if we take Johnson

If they take Johnson, then I hope you are right but I don't have a good feeling about Johnson.   I just think the hit tool has been a lot of hyperbole with the 70 rating and even the 80 rating and the Wade Boggs/Vlad comparison.     Is the bat special?   I'm skeptical and without a special bat there's better choices.    As I've said previously, if you want Johnson then why not Brooks Lee who's tools are very similar (and makeup as well) but has a better arm and has proven himself against much tougher competition?    Lee also has a slight chance of staying at SS and a decent chance of staying on the left side or playing 2B.     Again, the only reason to take Johnson is if you believe that is a "special" bat.   Maybe it is but I don't get that feeling from watching video and seeing his stats in the summer league.

[Sports Guy]

Yea I don’t get Johnson over Lee.  I think Lee is easily the better pick.

[7Mo]

No idea who this guy is or if he's credible but he has a lot of detail in his eval. In particular, he  provides more detail about whether Lee can play short. For what it's worth, he has Druw Jones 1 and the report is glowing.

https://medium.com/@tieranbaseball/mlb-draft-top-500-prospects-fba9fe7fceaf

The glove is very fringy at shortstop and I, like most people, think he is better suited for third base long term. That doesn’t mean he’s not at least passable at shortstop though- he might play at a Xander Bogaerts level defensively at the most premium of positions.

Brooks is not a great athlete. His foot speed is well below-average and he’s exactly light on his feet. He has limited range. He does do a good job making plays to his glove side though and has decent enough mobility. The actions are mostly fluid and he has enough arm for the left side of the infield.

The arm strength is a plus with excellent arm utility. He can uncork throws across the diamond with strong velocities and solid accuracy. Brooks can make throws from multiple arm angles and does so regularly. This is often to his detriment as he tends to drift into a less power and less accurate side arm slot when he really doesn't need to. This causes his arm to play down a bit to only a 55 grade. Lee is probably only average defensively at the hot corner but there is some defensive upside here.

[RZNJ]

I've watched video of Lee and he seems like an average runner to me.   I've seen 40 grades on his speed and many reports about him being below average.   When Lee was interviewed by MLB he was asked about the one thing that he wish people/scouts knew about him that they didn't.   He said it was his running speed.    He had hamstring surgery his freshman year.   It's quite possible his run times and speed have gotten progressively better over the last two years.   Just like people were surprised that Heston Kjerstad was faster in ST than previously reported, I'm betting that Lee is not the well below average runner this guy is claiming that he is.    As for not being a great athlete, does everyone tie that into foot speed.   It's about coordination.   Here's a switch hitter who plays SS.   I'd say he's probably a very good athlete that just doesn't run really fast.    J.J. Hardy, IMO, was a great athlete who ran like a slug.

[OriolesMagic83]

14. 2B Termarr Johnson, Mays High School

I have very mixed feelings about Termarr Johnson. I have him ranked a tad bit lower than the consensus but I really want to make it abundantly clear that I do not in any way dislike Termarr Johnson. The primary reason he’s ranked so low is that I think he is only an average second baseman. I think the bat is great but I don’t think it’s generational like some people seem to think it is.

The hit tool is very obviously the carrying tool for Termarr Johnson. People slap the best prep hitter in years moniker on him but I disagree. Termarr Johnson actually had fairly mediocre contact rates during the summer circuit (sourced). He only made contact 78% of the time. His 19% chase rate is good but for all that Termarr’s hit tool is supposed to be generational, he both whiffed and chased more against top competition than Holliday did.

Same guy who 7mo posted info about Lee.  Obviously just one guy's opinion about Termarr, but he just thinks the bat is good not special.

https://medium.com/@tieranbaseball/mlb-draft-top-500-prospects-fba9fe7fceaf

[7Mo]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

14. 2B Termarr Johnson, Mays High School

I have very mixed feelings about Termarr Johnson. I have him ranked a tad bit lower than the consensus but I really want to make it abundantly clear that I do not in any way dislike Termarr Johnson. The primary reason he’s ranked so low is that I think he is only an average second baseman. I think the bat is great but I don’t think it’s generational like some people seem to think it is.

The hit tool is very obviously the carrying tool for Termarr Johnson. People slap the best prep hitter in years moniker on him but I disagree. Termarr Johnson actually had fairly mediocre contact rates during the summer circuit (sourced). He only made contact 78% of the time. His 19% chase rate is good but for all that Termarr’s hit tool is supposed to be generational, he both whiffed and chased more against top competition than Holliday did.

Same guy who 7mo posted info about Lee.  Obviously just one guy's opinion about Termarr, but he just thinks the bat is good not special.

https://medium.com/@tieranbaseball/mlb-draft-top-500-prospects-fba9fe7fceaf

Keith Law posted a mock today saying we pick Holliday but my guess is Lee or Jones. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

10 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

I think the 1:1 pick is Lee, if Vegas odds shifted like they did last night then they know something.

I know it is easy to quickly say that Elias is doing this because of slot money but I am starting to think it’s for another reason.

Elias is scared to miss on a top 5 pick. Since he has been here he has drafted college bats with his first pick that profile as can’t miss guys.  Maybe not future all star guys but guys who are going to be major league regulars. I think that is how he views this draft, he thinks Lee has the best chance to not bust.

I know the Astros drafted high school guys in the first round but we haven’t seen it since he has been in Baltimore.

I think this is Decisions based on insecurities. Do you trust your player development or not?  Regardless, be high trade value near term. 

[Sydnor]

55 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

I think this is Decisions based on insecurities. Do you trust your player development or not?  Regardless, be high trade value near term. 

I think this is fair. I’ve said before that I think Mike would’ve picked Christian Colon over Manny for this reason. I am probably the most negative on Lee, but if he’s the pick, I hope he’s a decent player. I just hate that you lose 100+ to draft a guy that doesn’t appear to have the most superstar upside in the draft because you’re too cautious to draft a high school player in the first round.

You didn’t say this at all, but I’ll say it here: I hate the fast mover/fits the window argument too. First, if you draft a high school player that high, there should be no material difference in how quickly a college player and that high school player move through the system. Second, Mike has described his elite talent pipeline as an effort to avoid peaks and valleys, so fast moving shouldn’t be a consideration. 

At this point, we’ll see what happens, but I tend to trust Vegas.

[baltfan]

11 hours ago, RVAOsFan said:

I think the 1:1 pick is Lee, if Vegas odds shifted like they did last night then they know something.

I know it is easy to quickly say that Elias is doing this because of slot money but I am starting to think it’s for another reason.

Elias is scared to miss on a top 5 pick. Since he has been here he has drafted college bats with his first pick that profile as can’t miss guys.  Maybe not future all star guys but guys who are going to be major league regulars. I think that is how he views this draft, he thinks Lee has the best chance to not bust.

I know the Astros drafted high school guys in the first round but we haven’t seen it since he has been in Baltimore.

Part of the model might be that they have determined that it’s better to hit on can’t miss guys vs draft a superstar or even two and then completely miss on on.   Issue with that is that it seems Jones profiles as pretty can’t miss given his defense.  Downside seems to be maybe Keirmeir or Bradley, Jr. 

[baltfan]

14 hours ago, RZNJ said:

 

Yeah, Cowser isn't looking very talented to this point.

Problem with Cowser draft is Willems and Rhodes don’t seem at the moment worth the savings over Lawler.  

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Problem with Cowser draft is Willems and Rhodes don’t seem at the moment worth the savings over Lawler.  

Are we sure Lawlar is better than Cowser?  Is it possible the Orioles got the better player and the savings?

[baltfan]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea I don’t get Johnson over Lee.  I think Lee is easily the better pick.

Lee has had two significant injuries in college a knee and hamstring which both required surgery. 

[baltfan]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Are we sure Lawlar is better than Cowser?  Is it possible the Orioles got the better player and the savings?

Can’t be sure, but at the moment, consensus seems to be Lawler is better.  It more about the other guys though.  Right now the Kjerstad draft looks great even if Kjerstad isn’t setting the world on fire.