Here is where Elias’ job gets hard

[Frobby]

So far, I think Mike Elias has done a very competent job of Rebuilding 101: dump salary, trade veterans for prospects, get high draft picks, build out infrastructure, hire good personnel, update analytics, etc.   All pretty well done, and now we have a team that at least momentarily is threatening .500, and a ton of reinforcements in AA and AAA in our top-heavy, highly rated farm system, with a 1:1 pick and a lot of high picks to make in this year’s draft.  Getting there required diligence, discipline and patience.   So far, so good.   

Now comes the hard part, starting with this trade deadline and continuing into this next offseason.   What assets to buy and what to sell?   Is the team ready to make the leap to contention with the right moves, or is the current hot streak a bit of a mirage?   Do we keep building the farm system at the expense of future wins for one more cycle, or do we move into win now mode?   If the latter, exactly how do we get there?

I like the fact that Elias now has options as to which way to go, and resources (by which I mean current players, prospects and money) that can be deployed to move in whichever direction seems prudent.   But the decisions will be pretty complex, and here is where a big mistake or two could be really impactful.  So, it’s going to be a fun time for those who like to play armchair GM.   Here’s where the rubber meets the road. 
 

[RZNJ]

I don't think it's hard yet.  I think the toughest decision is for the rest of this season. Do you keep this "feel good" team in tact or bring up Stowers, Westburg, Vavra, and Henderson before the end of the year.  I think the decisions going into next season are fairly easy and predictable. 

I think the players not coming back next year are Odor and Santander.  

By the end of the year we hope to have a good read on Kremer and Bradish.  Lyles and Wells will be back.  Probably looking at signing (not trading for) another mid rotation starter and keeping the bullpen in tact going into next year.  

[UMDTerrapins]

I'm having a blast watching this team. It's a wonderful tease to see us moving up in the wildcard race. I'm still keeping a long view because a rotation of Wells, Lyles, Kremer, Voth, and Watkins won't likely get you anywhere near the playoffs. I think it's natural to want to put our deadline strategy into one box or the other, but I'm looking at any moves we make as individual choices and not part of a collective strategy. So we're looking at trading shorter term assets for prospect depth. The question of when you have enough depth and need to start using that depth to build a playoff team at the ML level.....I don't buy that we're there yet. We're wildly overachieving. So I'd look at each trade discussion on its own merit.....if the return is worthwhile (disrupting current chemistry factored in), you pull the trigger. 

A few things that remain on my mind regarding personnel moves:

1) By early next season, we will be adding Grayson Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson, John Means, DL Hall, Jordan Westburg, Kyle Stowers, and Terrin Vavra. That's a lot of talent to add to a team that's already holding its own. But as a group they will need time to adjust, and significant opportunity. And we're still breaking in some guys (Bradish, Zimmerman). That's a lot of individual variables playing key roles. I think THAT is the core team that shifts your deadline strategy. 

2) Given all the players that are graduating from the minors in the next wave, and the long term players already on the ML roster, I don't see a naturally open position to look for free agent additions this offseason. But that isn't necessarily a limitation. We need to be open to trading prospects, not just players who aren't part of the long term picture. 

3) We moved the wall, and now our team has a 3.29 home ERA and a 4.60 road ERA. And we have the lowest payroll in the majors. If we're not going to be players for top free agent pitchers, including this offseason when we're poised to go all in with graduating our top prospects, why did we bother moving the wall? 

4) My personal observation is that we still have a ways to go before the deadline, and a lot of these kinds of situations that look like possible looming issues, never turn out to be issues at all in the end. We'll probably come back down to reality before the deadline, and moving guys like Mancini, Lyles, Santander, Lopez, etc won't come with fan backlash. 

5) Sometimes making moves that give the appearance of the front office "giving up" on the season, don't negatively affect the ability of the team to win in that season. Perceptions can be overrated. 

[Roll Tide]

43 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I don't think it's hard yet.  I think the toughest decision is for the rest of this season. Do you keep this "feel good" team in tact or bring up Stowers, Westburg, Vavra, and Henderson before the end of the year.  I think the decisions going into next season are fairly easy and predictable. 

I think the players not coming back next year are Odor and Santander.  

By the end of the year we hope to have a good read on Kremer and Bradish.  Lyles and Wells will be back.  Probably looking at signing (not trading for) another mid rotation starter and keeping the bullpen in tact going into next year.  

I suspect Elias will deal a BP arm or 2 as he’s done regularly. I expect Lopez to be sold high to a team in search of a late inning reliever. Odor is really just fodder as is Chirinos. I think Santander is also traded at the deadline. Doesn’t sound like they are having Discussions with Trey so I think they are trading him as well. 

[Sports Guy]

Hard?  Is he curing cancer now?

[Roll Tide]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hard?  Is he curing cancer now?

I think he will continue along the planned path. That makes the decisions easier imo

[7Mo]

My belief is that Mike Elias has made every decision to date consistent with his original plan and has not deviated from that plan. I don't think that changes based on being close to wildcard contention. 

I believe that the front office has internal valuations on all players and that valuation dictates whether a trade is made or not. As an example, I thought Fry and Scott would be moved at last years deadline. Seemed to make perfect sense. The only reason I can figure that they weren't is that we did not receive an offer that met the front office's internal valuations. 

My guess is all the names mentioned on this board frequently are available in trade and the MLB market as a whole is very aware that Mancini, Lopez, Tate, Santander, Odor, Lyles and others are available. Whether they are traded is driven entirely on whether we receive what we value to be a fair offer. And it's not driven in the least by the idea "we should trade Santander because Stowers is ready".

Without going back to look at Elias quotes, my memory is that he's always talked about building an elite talent pipeline with the intent to compete for championships. I don't think that means "maybe make the playoffs". 

My guess is the front office is happy with progress to date but feels we are several significant steps from the original goal or plan. And I think the end result is some trades are made but not as many as could be and frankly, I don't think the idea of a "PR hit" will be a factor at all.

[Sports Guy]

The picture has never been more clear.  You are ready in 2023, so you need to get the kids up and let them get their feet wet and do a real evaluation of him.   That is easily the single most important thing he can do this year.  
 

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

My belief is that Mike Elias has made every decision to date consistent with his original plan and has not deviated from that plan. I don't think that changes based on being close to wildcard contention. 

I believe that the front office has internal valuations on all players and that valuation dictates whether a trade is made or not. As an example, I thought Fry and Scott would be moved at last years deadline. Seemed to make perfect sense. The only reason I can figure that they weren't is that we did not receive an offer that met the front office's internal valuations. 

My guess is all the names mentioned on this board frequently are available in trade and the MLB market as a whole is very aware that Mancini, Lopez, Tate, Santander, Odor, Lyles and others are available. Whether they are traded is driven entirely on whether we receive what we value to be a fair offer. And it's not driven in the least by the idea "we should trade Santander because Stowers is ready".

Without going back to look at Elias quotes, my memory is that he's always talked about building an elite talent pipeline with the intent to compete for championships. I don't think that means "maybe make the playoffs". 

My guess is the front office is happy with progress to date but feels we are several significant steps from the original goal or plan. And I think the end result is some trades are made but not as many as could be and frankly, I don't think the idea of a "PR hit" will be a factor at all.

I think Lyles would be real expensive. He’s part of what is protecting the pen and the other starters. Unless you have a deal that at minimum replaces him. I’d try to add another starter that another team is looking to move. 

[ScGO's]

We DO NOT have the pitching to make the playoffs in 2022; even if by chance we did earn a WC spot, we don't have the pitching to go deep in the playoffs.

I think you bring in more youth for Mancini, Lyles, Santander, Lopez, etc.  You really aren't losing a ton at the MLB level with that group.  The O's may even be able to stay competitive after trading that group.

But again, we don't have the pitching to go deep in the playoffs this year.  Next year we get Means and Gray Rod back, and I would expect Elias to be creative and find another quality arm or two through free agency or through trade.

A Starting 5 of Means, Gray Rod, Wells, Kremer, +1 or 2 acquistions could be interesting.  Bullpen could be strong or need a few holes plugged if Elias trades both Lopez and Tate.

I think you need to use the final 2 months of the season to see what you have in Henderson, Westburg, Vavra, Diaz, Stowers, Neustrom, etc to see who is ready to help with a playoff run in 2023.

We'll see what Elias brings in for pitching, but I think can compete for a playoff spots if we go into 2023 with:

C- Rutchman

1B- Mountcastle

2B - Vavra/Urias

3B - Westburg/Henderson

SS - Henderson/Westburg

OF - Hays/Mullins/Stowers

DH - Urias/?

Super Utility- Mateo

[ScGO's]

13 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

My belief is that Mike Elias has made every decision to date consistent with his original plan and has not deviated from that plan. I don't think that changes based on being close to wildcard contention. 

I believe that the front office has internal valuations on all players and that valuation dictates whether a trade is made or not. As an example, I thought Fry and Scott would be moved at last years deadline. Seemed to make perfect sense. The only reason I can figure that they weren't is that we did not receive an offer that met the front office's internal valuations. 

My guess is all the names mentioned on this board frequently are available in trade and the MLB market as a whole is very aware that Mancini, Lopez, Tate, Santander, Odor, Lyles and others are available. Whether they are traded is driven entirely on whether we receive what we value to be a fair offer. And it's not driven in the least by the idea "we should trade Santander because Stowers is ready".

Without going back to look at Elias quotes, my memory is that he's always talked about building an elite talent pipeline with the intent to compete for championships. I don't think that means "maybe make the playoffs". 

My guess is the front office is happy with progress to date but feels we are several significant steps from the original goal or plan. And I think the end result is some trades are made but not as many as could be and frankly, I don't think the idea of a "PR hit" will be a factor at all.

What this guy said

[7Mo]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think Lyles would be real expensive. He’s part of what is protecting the pen and the other starters. Unless you have a deal that at minimum replaces him. I’d try to add another starter that another team is looking to move. 

Not sure about "real expensive" but clearly we valued him higher than other teams did during the offseason and that's proven to be a good judgment to date. There's a good chance there wind up being 3-4 deadline deals bringing players back so Lyles specifically wouldn't have to return a starter so long as 1-2 starter capable guys come back in one trade  or another. 

[Ohfan67]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The picture has never been more clear.  You are ready in 2023, so you need to get the kids up and let them get their feet wet and do a real evaluation of him.   That is easily the single most important thing he can do this year.  
 

Totally agree. Getting the young players up and making progress is way more important than trading for someone who's going to improve this year's team by a win or two. 

[Aristotelian]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The picture has never been more clear.  You are ready in 2023, so you need to get the kids up and let them get their feet wet and do a real evaluation of him.   That is easily the single most important thing he can do this year.  
 

Plus we have talent that can help us now for a shot at pulling off a miracle in 22. I really see no reason to hold off on Vavra or Westburg at minimum.

I guess the biggest decision is do you trade Mancini, Santander, or both. Or what happens if someone makes a wow offer for Lopez. 

[sportsfan8703]

Great OP @Frobby.  Lots of factors to consider. Like the other 4 teams in our division are going to be buyers. How much would we have to buy to even keep up?  
 

Overall, we can buy without losing too much. Buying to us looks like keeping our guys and deciding how many of our top prospects we call up. We need a SP. If we’re not going to call up Gunnar and Westburg, then we should try and get a rental 3B/SS. Maybe an upgrade for Chirnos as well.