A Pennant Race and a Playoff Berth should be the Goal for the 2022 O's

[DrungoHazewood]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

OK,  What is the chance the O's win the World Series in any  of the next 10 years?

They have not won the WS is almost 40 years.

If they have a solid block of six or eight years of strong playoff contention they have a realistic shot at a title.  But still probably less than even odds, even if they're a solid division title contender.  Look at the Rays, that's basically the model.  

Remember, an average MLB team wins the Series once every 30 years.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If they have a solid block of six or eight years of strong playoff contention they have a realistic shot at a title.  But still probably less than even odds, even if they're a solid division title contender.  Look at the Rays, that's basically the model.  

Remember, an average MLB team wins the Series once every 30 years.

So 1 in 30.   That is about a 3% chance in any year.  So the chances are never high that the O's will win the WS.   So when they get a shot at the playoffs they should take it.

Playing in the the Playoffs would be great experience of a young O's team and may help them go farther in the the Playoffs next  year.

[Spy Fox]

28 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

There is quite a bit of statistical analysis showing that MLB's playoffs are a crapshoot. A wildcard team or high seed has a dramatically higher chance of becoming champions, compared to a sport like hockey or basketball.

The 2019 Nationals were a (mediocre) wild card team that went on to win the World Series.

Before finishing the regular season 9-1, very few people would have even considered them one of the top 10 teams in baseball. Even with that hot finish, they only had the 8th or 9th best record. 

Not saying we should bet the farm on 2022, but if the O's make it as a wildcard team, they absolutely have a shot at the whole thing.

The 2019 Nats also went 10-0 in the postseason in games started by Scherzer and Strasburg. 2-5 in games started by the other guys, including 0-5 against the league best Astros and Dodgers.

[TommyPickles]

28 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

The 2019 Nats also went 10-0 in the postseason in games started by Scherzer and Strasburg. 2-5 in games started by the other guys, including 0-5 against the league best Astros and Dodgers.

Fair point. And the 2022 O's are not the 2019 Nats. But, the math remains favorable for wild card teams in MLB compared to other sports.

In the last 20 years, a wildcard team has gone on to win the WS a staggering 30% of the time.

For contrast, in the NBA, a 7th or 8th seed team has never  won the NBA Championship...

If you make the MLB playoffs, you may win the World Series.

[SpOkane]

17 hours ago, wildcard said:

A little dramatic and, of course, not close to what I said.  But why let that stand in the way of a good rant.

Irrationally wreak the foundation of the rebuild?  Please.   I didn't say Elias should not trade Mancini and/or Santander.   I just said wait until the off season.   Sign Mancini  and look at what is offered in the off season.  I fail to see how that wreaks the rebuild.

I have been watching MLB for over 60 years and being two games out of the playoffs in July is being in the pennant race.  Has always been that way and will probably always be that way.   Being 18 games out of the division lost its meaning when MLB installed the wild card system.  

If the O's win a wild card spot they have a chance to win the pennant.  They don't have to win the division to win the pennant.  They have to win the playoffs to win the pennant.   So don't confuse winning the division with winning the pennant.

Never the less, being in a pennant race and then hopefully playing in the playoffs is the best thing for a young team.   Its great experience on how to do it again and learning what it takes to win the World Series.

Why would Mancini sign a contract in order to be traded in the off-season when he can control his destiny through free agency? If that happened, that would decrease the chance other O's would sign extensions, I think.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If they have a solid block of six or eight years of strong playoff contention they have a realistic shot at a title.  But still probably less than even odds, even if they're a solid division title contender.  Look at the Rays, that's basically the model.  

Remember, an average MLB team wins the Series once every 30 years.

 

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

So 1 in 30.   That is about a 3% chance in any year.  So the chances are never high that the O's will win the WS.   So when they get a shot at the playoffs they should take it.

Playing in the the Playoffs would be great experience of a young O's team and may help them go farther in the the Playoffs next  year.

1 in 30 assumes a level playing field. The Yankees have 27 in 100+ years. I am guessing the median is much lower than 1 in 30 but I'm not sure how you calculate it factoring expansions etc. 

[Just Regular]

I'd like to see another 7-3 stretch before wondering in any depth but in that scenario is there a Game Theory difference between trading Mayo for Castillo now, or Mayo for Wheeler in 12 months?     Its 14.3% of your seven Adley falls.

How do DL Hall and Grayson track the next few weeks?    If two weeks from now the White Sox, Red Sox and Rays are still melting, we're still surging, what are the things the wildcard 2023 Orioles will have that notional wildcard 2022 Orioles wouldn't?    I'll give a mostly healed but rusty John Means.     Kjerstad and Cowser?    Thoroughbreds with 800 PA, not 200 PA?   Grayson and Hall being in that K-Rod October place I could squint and say is a feature not a bug.

3 games at Minnesota*    Team MVP Jordan Lyles isn't on the roster, resting.  Castillo-Grayson-Hall-Wells-Felix-Lopez got my 27 innings.    Are tuckered out Joe Ryan and Dylan Bundy pitching for the other guys?    Sonny Gray...come at me.     Austin Hays, be nice to Carlos Correa.

*6-3 is hard bracketed and plays 2, right?    That's probably HOU not NYY, if we were AL6.    

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

 

1 in 30 assumes a level playing field. The Yankees have 27 in 100+ years. I am guessing the median is much lower than 1 in 30 but I'm not sure how you calculate it factoring expansions etc. 

It's playoff rounds expansions more than MLB franchise expansion.   Each layer randomizes, to Andrew Friedman's distress.

Let's say the 2022 Yankees are the 1998 Yankees equal.    Even if they are 67% favorites against MIN-HOU-LAD, their individual best odds are ~8/27ths, and that's probably being generous.

Postseasons make money and "A Champion" and don't have a ton to do with Best Team, whatever that means.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

So 1 in 30.   That is about a 3% chance in any year.  So the chances are never high that the O's will win the WS.   So when they get a shot at the playoffs they should take it.

Playing in the the Playoffs would be great experience of a young O's team and may help them go farther in the the Playoffs next  year.

My takeaway is not that they need to make a big push in a year where the playoffs are very unlikely, but that they need to make sure they don't do anything to jeopardize their more realistic chances in the next few years. Trading talented, cost-controlled assets for 2022 value, or not trading players like Mancini if they can bring back 2023-beyond assets hurt the franchise's odds of overall playoff success.

[DrungoHazewood]

39 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

It's playoff rounds expansions more than MLB franchise expansion.   Each layer randomizes, to Andrew Friedman's distress.

Let's say the 2022 Yankees are the 1998 Yankees equal.    Even if they are 67% favorites against MIN-HOU-LAD, their individual best odds are ~8/27ths, and that's probably being generous.

Postseasons make money and "A Champion" and don't have a ton to do with Best Team, whatever that means.

I look at it as a work-around for fixing vast revenue disparities.  MLB cannot or will not fix the fact that the Yanks bring in $650M and the Rays $225M.  So they've randomized the playoffs such that even a 115-win super team has just a 1-in-4 chance of winning it all once October starts.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

1 in 30 assumes a level playing field. The Yankees have 27 in 100+ years. I am guessing the median is much lower than 1 in 30 but I'm not sure how you calculate it factoring expansions etc. 

The Orioles are not an average team.  My guess is that their odds are more like 1-in-50, as the Yanks, Dodgers, Sox, Astros and others are probably closer to 1-in-10 or 1-in-15.

Look at the real data.  The Rockies, Rangers/Senators, Rays, Brewers/Pilots, Padres and Mariners have never won a World Series.  And the newest of those teams have been around 25 years. The Rangers franchise started during the Kennedy administration. I'm 51, so it's very much an open question if the Orioles will win another Series in my lifetime.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

My takeaway is not that they need to make a big push in a year where the playoffs are very unlikely, but that they need to make sure they don't do anything to jeopardize their more realistic chances in the next few years. Trading talented, cost-controlled assets for 2022 value, or not trading players like Mancini if they can bring back 2023-beyond assets hurt the franchise's odds of overall playoff success.

Agreed.  And I’m confident that Elias won’t get swept up in the emotions of the moment.   But, there could be circumstances where he helps the current team without any significant detriment to the future.