Rutschman vs Witt

[LookinUp]

56 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Witt is also 3 years younger, which is obviously a big difference as well.

But maybe for the opposite reasons that we would assume?

Older player is more likely to contribute at a top level earlier in his career, so may be worth more over 6 years.

For an org that is unlikely to resign stars to long term deals, maybe the older player makes more sense?

[baltfan]

This would be a much better argument if the Orioles hadn't drafted both Gunnar and Adley.  I suppose you could say they could have gotten Gunnar and Witt, but then you would have a hole at catcher.  And unless you think Patrick Bailey is Adley-like and would have been a better pick than Kjerstad, you don't have much of an argument that Adley + Gunnar wasn't the right call.

[Ripken]

With Witt's recent torrid streak, I was waiting for this to be bumped.  Both great players and no wrong choice.  Catcher is harder to fill and we're overrun with great IF prospects so no complaints here.  As SG said, if the O's had taken Witt, everything from that point could/would be different.  KC better get some talent around that kid or he'll probably want to move on when he can.

[emmett16]

33 minutes ago, baltfan said:

This would be a much better argument if the Orioles hadn't drafted both Gunnar and Adley.  I suppose you could say they could have gotten Gunnar and Witt, but then you would have a hole at catcher.  And unless you think Patrick Bailey is Adley-like and would have been a better pick than Kjerstad, you don't have much of an argument that Adley + Gunnar wasn't the right call.

There is no argument.  Zero. 

[Orioles Jim]

With Catcher being such a hard position to quantify in terms of impact (how do you quantify the impact the catcher has on settling down the pitcher, etc), it could be that there’s a hole to the statistics that’s missing some of Adley’s contributions.

I also wouldn’t be surprised if the bigger bag, less pickoff moves, making the pitcher at times have to rush the pitch, etc are creating steal opportunities that are punishing catchers stats.

That’s not to say that we’ll NEVER be able to quantify it. Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Orioles already have such stats internally. But for now, I do wonder if there’s a hole in the publicly available metrics that’s causing us to not see the full picture.

 

[Jim'sKid26]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

FWAR in 2023:

Witt: 4.6

Adley: 2.9

It's kind of an age old question about whether WAR accurately captures the value of catchers. In Adley's case he also DH's alot so that doesn't help him in a race with another position player who plays a premium defensive position every day.  It might be an apple to oranges kind of thing. 

Do you honestly believe Witt is > 1.5 wins better than Adley this year? 

[Jim'sKid26]

Also, just for reference (pardon the pun) bWAR 2023

Witt 3.7

Adley 2.8

 

[Sports Guy]

33 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

It's kind of an age old question about whether WAR accurately captures the value of catchers. In Adley's case he also DH's alot so that doesn't help him in a race with another position player who plays a premium defensive position every day.  It might be an apple to oranges kind of thing. 

Do you honestly believe Witt is > 1.5 wins better than Adley this year? 

Adley’s defense hasn’t been good and I think the C position is overrated(although more important now that steals are a thing again) so yes, I do…but I say that purely based off of the numbers. I don’t watch Witt.

I also think Adley brings something to the team that can’t be measured and I have zero idea if Witt does that.

[now]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I also think Adley brings something to the team that can’t be measured and I have zero idea if Witt does that.

I don't know much about Witt either, but just watching that unnecessary swan dive on the inside the park homer, makes him look like a hot dog. Definitely not an Adley look (quite the opposite), thank goodness.

[Frobby]

This is as good a time as any to compare Adley’s 2022 and 2023 seasons.  He played in 113 games last year, 114 so far this year.  Last year he had 762 innings at catcher, this year it’s 722, as he’s been DHing a bit more often.  

Offensively, last year Adley was at .254/.362/.445, good for a 130 OPS+, with 13 HR and 42 RBI.   This year, he’s at .268/.365/.427, good for 121 OPS+, with 16 HR and 58 RBI in 37 more PA. Despite hitting a few more homers, his ISO is down from .191 to .159, largely due to a drop in doubles, from 35 to 19,

Defensively, last year he allowed 23 WP and two PB; this year it’s 33 WP and 0 PB in 40 fewer innings.  Last year he allowed 25 SB and caught 11 (31% compared to 25% league average); this year it’s 49 SB and 12 CS (20% compared to league average 21%).  On advanced metrics, last year BB-ref had him at +4 Rtot and +18 Rdrs; this year he’s at 0 on both metrics.  Statcast had him at +4 framing, +1 stealing, +4 blocking last year; this year he’s +1, 0, +1 in those categories.  I have to say, I haven’t noticed any decline in Adley’s framing skills, but Statcast says otherwise.  

I still feel that Adley will find another gear offensively eventually, but maybe not in 2023.   He’s having a solid year and doing a good job leading the staff, but you’d have to say he was better last year both offensively and defensively.  

 

[Sports Guy]

Yep, worse defense and less power has been the theme of his season.

[baltfan]

On Adley’s framing I often wonder if umpires get sensitive about guys that get a reputation for being elite framers and then try to compensate. 

[Since1984]

Believe Witt is one of the fastest players in the league, without checking. Different players that make it hard to compare one for one, but Witt’s age takes the advantage so far

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Adley’s defense hasn’t been good and I think the C position is overrated(although more important now that steals are a thing again) so yes, I do…but I say that purely based off of the numbers. I don’t watch Witt.

I also think Adley brings something to the team that can’t be measured and I have zero idea if Witt does that.

You just lost all credibility.  

[Orioles Jim]

https://x.com/codifybaseball/status/1691479410174808064?s=46&t=eD_XXnce6RpM2gEfRbtV3w
 

Once we get robo umps or once we even see some improvement from the umps, Adley’s walk numbers could go up even higher. 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Orioles Jim