Is Mountcastle the guy to move?

[Roll Tide]

12 hours ago, Baltimorecuse said:

I see one position we need an upgrade and that is second base.  

What we need is a stud starter, a shutdown guy.  It is extra credit for a lefty.  You're not getting that for a position player unless his name is Judge or Trout.

If there are any moves it's going to be in the minors.  

 

You could do that at 2nd or 3Rd as I believe Urias can play either. What’s wrong with giving Vavra an extended look. 
 

We aren’t trading Mountcastle and our fans seem to be fickle. Trade Mancini or Santander or Mancini to clear a spot for Stowers. Tell Hyde to play Vavra at 2B and use Odor sparingly. I like Odor but his batting average is unacceptable and there is no reason to believe he will improve.

The return can be pitcher/pitchers who are nearly ready. Any position player should be at A/A+ level.

Edited July 31, 2022 by Roll Tide

[bpilktree]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

You could do that at 2nd or 3Rd as I believe Urias can play either. What’s wrong with giving Vavra an extended look. 
 

We aren’t trading Mountcastle and our fans seem to be fickle. Trade Mancini or Santander or Mancini to clear a spot for Stowers. Tell Hyde to play Vavra at 2B and use Odor sparingly. I like Odor but his batting average is unacceptable and there is no reason to believe he will improve.

The return can be pitcher/pitchers who are nearly ready. Any position player should be at A/A+ level.

I don’t think the see Varva as a 2nd baseman much anymore.  He wasn’t playing much in the minors there and with them not playing him since he came up at 2nd any it might be his is more outfielder and DH type.

[Ohfan67]

21 hours ago, waroriole said:

I don’t know why people keep thinking the month long streakiness will continue. In 3 seasons now, he’s basically shown this is all he is. He doesn’t even hit with a lot of power. No need for him to be playing every day unless he’s locked in. 

He’s 25. He has not played full three seasons. Less than two seasons worth of games at this point. And he shows a lot of power when he’s hot. He already has a 30+ homer season. Those are the reasons to be optimistic that there’s more in the tank. 
 

But the lack of plate discipline has always been part of his game. And his offense is always likely to just be ok for a first baseman. And the variability is very frustrating. So plenty of reasons to not to like his game. 
 

I am often a glass is half empty kind of person, but occasionally fandom blossoms inside me and I just root for a player and let myself be overly optimistic. For some reason I root a little extra hard for Mountcastle. Not sure why to be honest. #weareallfans

[survivedc]

23 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

I don’t think the see Varva as a 2nd baseman much anymore.  He wasn’t playing much in the minors there and with them not playing him since he came up at 2nd any it might be his is more outfielder and DH type.

He’s played the majority of his games in the minors at 2B this year…

[SteveA]

It's interesting that one of the biggest complaints is that his plate discipline is very similar to Adam Jones', which it is.

And therefore we should sell while we can.

I man, Adam Jones is a surefire Orioles HOFer and undoubtedly one of the top 20 Orioles ever.  Yeah, I know he played a premium defensive position and played it very well in his prime years, and had intangibles and leadership qualities too.

Would I like to have an entire team of guys with Adley-like plate discipline?  Of course.

But you can have a player with a flaw in your lineup and still be a good team.  Last year's Yankees played Rougned Odor a lot and won a lot of games.  

I don't believe Mountcastle is "just" a .750/.775 guy either.  He's 25, still has room to improve.

I'm not saying he should be untouchable but he is a good young hitter whois just 25 and has lots of controllable years and I would expect a BIG  return for that.

[Ohfan67]

On 7/30/2022 at 1:11 PM, RZNJ said:

Mountcastle is overall good and reports that his defense are good are surprising but good to hear.   However, replacing him with someone who provides equal value from inside the system, I don't think will be that difficult.     I could see converting Stowers, Westburg, Vavra) to 1B under different scenarios.    Look at Urias.    Can Urias overall give you the offense and defense of Mountcastle at 1B?     I think it's certainly comparable.    We are going to have more players than spots available at 3B/SS/2B by next April.     Urias/Mateo/Henderson/Westburg/Vavra.   Ortiz could even be in the picture.  In the outfield Hays/Mullins/Santander/Stowers with Cowser possibly in the picture. 

By the way, Urias is three years older than Mountcastle. And has only managed to accumulate about 500 at bats in the majors. Urias is fun when he’s hot, but I don’t think you can count on him in the future. Maybe a good bench player for the next couple of years, but Hopefully Urias and similar players will be quickly pushed aside by the IF prospects. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

By the way, Urias is three years older than Mountcastle. And has only managed to accumulate about 500 at bats in the majors. Urias is fun when he’s hot, but I don’t think you can count on him in the future. Maybe a good bench player for the next couple of years, but Hopefully Urias and similar players will be quickly pushed aside by the IF prospects. 

Why can’t you count on him?  He’s a good player.  I think over the next 3 years, he can be a 6-8 WAR guy.  That’s a solid 2-3 WAR each year.  Nothing wrong with that.

[SilverRocket]

I feel like this would be selling low. The statcast numbers are really good, with barrel rate, hard hit rate, xBA and xSLG around the 90th percentile. I don't know if I trust the defensive numbers considering how low they were last year, but he's not a butcher. We also don't have anyone to slot into 1B next year.

I don't know how accurate baseballtradevalues.com is but they have Mountcastle at $22M surplus value and Urquidy at $11.1M. I'd be open to moving him in principle but I doubt we'd get a good enough offer right now.

[Ohfan67]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why can’t you count on him?  He’s a good player.  I think over the next 3 years, he can be a 6-8 WAR guy.  That’s a solid 2-3 WAR each year.  Nothing wrong with that.

He’s a 28 year old scrap heap player. I am thrilled with what he’s done with the Orioles, but we have seen many players over the years have an awesome couple of months in their late 20s and then they are gone in a flash. He is making a contribution and I’m not ragging on him. But most of those guys are lightening in a bottle. Well, most don’t do anything. A few are lightening in a bottle. It looks like the Orioles are going to give him significant playing time so he will get a chance to prove he’s more. I just wouldn’t bet on it based on history. 

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

By the way, Urias is three years older than Mountcastle. And has only managed to accumulate about 500 at bats in the majors. Urias is fun when he’s hot, but I don’t think you can count on him in the future. Maybe a good bench player for the next couple of years, but Hopefully Urias and similar players will be quickly pushed aside by the IF prospects. 

They hit about the same. Of course Urias can play anywhere in the IF, not just 1B. 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

He’s a 28 year old scrap heap player. I am thrilled with what he’s done with the Orioles, but we have seen many players over the years have an awesome couple of months in their late 20s and then they are gone in a flash. He is making a contribution and I’m not ragging on him. But most of those guys are lightening in a bottle. Well, most don’t do anything. A few are lightening in a bottle. It looks like the Orioles are going to give him significant playing time so he will get a chance to prove he’s more. I just wouldn’t bet on it based on history. 

This is completely underrating Urias and what he has done in the past but ok.

[Ohfan67]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This is completely underrating Urias and what he has done in the past but ok.

He has been in professional baseball for 11 years, so there is a lot of past. Unfortunately he is 28 so there may not be that much future left. It’s too bad he didn’t get more of chance earlier in his career. I’m not hating on the guy…but very few players in his situation have much a future. He will be 29 next year with just over one season worth of at bats under his belt. That’s not an optimal situation. 

[Sports Guy]

26 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

He has been in professional baseball for 11 years, so there is a lot of past. Unfortunately he is 28 so there may not be that much future left. It’s too bad he didn’t get more of chance earlier in his career. I’m not hating on the guy…but very few players in his situation have much a future. He will be 29 next year with just over one season worth of at bats under his belt. That’s not an optimal situation. 

He’s not ancient.  He has hit everywhere he has been.  He plays good defense.  He is a very good player.  Zero reason to think he is some nothing guy.

[Frobby]

Mountcastle by month, 2021-22:

April .515/.613

May .748/.768

June 1.016/.959

July .655/.541

August 1.183/???

Sept./Oct. 711/???

Those are really extreme swings.  As I’ve said, I’m sure he’ll heat up again, and his overall numbers will probably turn out fine before it’s all over, but how much value do you put on a guy who disappears for a month at a time, even though he’s incredibly hot at other times?

[OriolesMagic83]

Mountcastle is who he is at this point.  The good point about 1b is that just about every professional baseball player can play it.  In the next couple of years, the O's should have several defensively challenged outfielders and infielders who can cover 1b.  Surely one of them can do better than a .750ish OPS at 1b.  For the rest of 2022 and into 2023, Mountcastle is fine unless the O's find a cheap upgrade.