At what point do you plan on winning?

[Mike B]

Won't be anyone worthwhile out on the market then. Especially considering most teams are locking up their young studs.

Besides, even if there were, we wouldn't pony up the dough.

I am not sure how you can know who will be available in 2011 but we agree that until the team shows us it will spend we have to assume they will get sticker shock.

My point was that those saying 2010 to compete are very optimistic.

[Bearcat Brooks]

Make a splash by signing next year's top free agent. Package some of our lesser minor league prospects together for one good player. Send a group of skilled assassins (preferably ninjas) after Angelos. All of these seem to be good.

So package together all of Norfolk in return for Joey Votto?

[JTrea81]

I am not sure how you can know who will be available in 2011 but we agree that until the team shows us it will spend we have to assume they will get sticker shock.

My point was that those saying 2010 to compete are very optimistic.

Take a look: http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagency11.php

See anybody that MacPhail will spend money or that you'd want him to spend money on? I don't...

[Bearcat Brooks]

Really interesting and good question. Personally, I was of the persuasion in SG's other thread that believes trading guthrie is a good idea. Now, that belief is based on the idea that we get excellent value for him. If the market were such that three legitimate ML ready prospects could not be had for Guthrie, then by all means keep him. Otherwise, I deal him and hope to get one bat and two arms.

Also, I hate to say trade Roberts, but that has to be done as well IMO. Again, I look at this the same way AM does: inventory. The deeper our inventory of young players that appear to be on the cusp of making an impact at the ML level, the more likely that enough will stick to create a contender. And Roberts could net at least two or three solid prospects (right??).

I would do my darndest to sign Dunn. I think that he could be an upgrade for Huff, whom I look to trade during the course of the season. I have to think that we can get at least one or two prospects for Huff from a contender before the trade deadline.

Also, I hope that Sherrill bounces back and finds early success and look to trade him at some point in the next year or two for more young guys. Same goes for Scott. Let Reimold struggle in the majors just to see what we have in the kid.

In sum, my plan basically calls for LOOKING to trade most anybody with value (Besides, Wieters, Jones and Markakis) for prospects. If we can net eight to ten more young guys over the next year or two, then some of those guys along with the prospects within our system will hopefully develop to help create a contender. Supplementing the young guys with one or two HIGH QUALITY free agent signings for both bats and arms over the next three years will make a contender. But I save my money for guys who will bring considerable value to the O's.

I know this plan is not specific at all with names, but it's the premise of trading our players of value for high caliber prospects. WHoever they are, wherever they play. As long as the position prospects can hit and the pitchers can throw strikes and get guys out, we'll worry about specifics of position once we have nine or ten guys that can hit pitching, and we have at least 15 pitchers that can get major leaguers out.

In what world is an outfielder who cant field, hits for about 90 points lower average and about 7 more homeruns better?????? Dunn stinks, trade Huff,and roberts, and Markakis(it seems he doesnt want to sign), go young and see what happens

[ChaosLex]

I am not sure how you can know who will be available in 2011 but we agree that until the team shows us it will spend we have to assume they will get sticker shock.

My point was that those saying 2010 to compete are very optimistic.

I'm sure I'm missing some people, but these are the big names available in 2011, IIRC.

Matt Cain

Adrian Gonzalez

Todd Helton

Felix Hernandez

Ryan Howard

Francisco Liriano

Ervin Santana

James Shields

Grady Sizemore

Ryan Zimmerman

I hope you're right that we target some of these guys. Especially if we're right on the verge of contention. I'm just not sure if MacPhail will ante up. Especially for the pitchers, who will probably get contracts in excess of $15 million a season.

[JTrea81]

I'm sure I'm missing some people, but these are the big names available in 2011, IIRC.

Matt Cain

Adrian Gonzalez

Todd Helton

Felix Hernandez

Ryan Howard

Francisco Liriano

Ervin Santana

James Shields

Grady Sizemore

Ryan Zimmerman

I hope you're right that we target some of these guys. Especially if we're right on the verge of contention. I'm just not sure if MacPhail will ante up. Especially for the pitchers, who will probably get contracts in excess of $15 million a season.

Shields, Gonzalez and Sizemore have team options which will likely be picked up IMO...

[Sports Guy]

Shields, Gonzalez and Sizemore have team options which will likely be picked up IMO...

Gonzalez's option is for 2011, not beyond it.

[JTrea81]

Gonzalez's option is for 2011, not beyond it.

Right but he won't be available before the 2011 season which is what CL I think was looking at.

He will be available to sign before the 2012 season...

[Why_Knott?]

At some point we have to spend big money on free agents to supplement the talent that we are growing. We should not be following the Rays model, but trying to find something in between theirs and the Yankees. A team like the Angels comes to mind. Until this franchise can spend top dollar on free agents while simultaneously building a respectable farm system, we will not compete.

[Singleton]

TB lost for 10 years straight before they developed their model, We have just started to go down that road.

Do you want to lose for 8 more years? I don't...

And good luck keeping Markakis, Jones and Wieters using the Twins/Rays model...

It's absolutely pathetic that the Orioles have an RSN and are acting like they are going to be the Rays or Twins...

They should dissolve MASN then because the Twins and Rays don't have RSN's either...

And we've lost for 11 so we're 1 year overdue. As you note, we have three young cornerstones with a bunch of young, high end pitchers very close. Stop focusing on how much we spend and start focusing on the talent we have and the talent we can get.

I think we have a decent shot at keeping our core if we show some improvement over the next couple of years which will be more likely if AM can pull off another good deal or two.

[OSfanfromCT]

In what world is an outfielder who cant field, hits for about 90 points lower average and about 7 more homeruns better?????? Dunn stinks, trade Huff,and roberts, and Markakis(it seems he doesnt want to sign), go young and see what happens

Adam Dunn: three years younger and 899 career OPS (2008 season 899 OPS exactly)

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=276055

Aubrey Huff: career 827 OPS at three years older than Dunn. 2008 912 OPS, which I doubt he duplicates at his age, although could very well be wrong.

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=333492

Point is that for two guys who can't really field, I'd rather take the guy who is three years younger and has consistently put up an OPS that is 70 points higher.

At any rate, not the point of the thread. Point remains that the O's are in no way ready to compete in 2009 or probably 2010. 2011 at the earliest, and even that might be a stretch IMO considering who knows with the development of our young guys. However, if we make a couple of aggressive trades for our players that have serious value (Brob, Guthrie, Sherill, Scott), along with acquiring a very select few of highly talented free agents, who may be undervalued like a Dunn or a Sheets, then the O's can be competitive. And some luck where our pitchers actually stay healthy would be nice too.

[OrioleFan55]

What? He hasn't even been a top second baseman for the last 6 or 7 years and you expect him to be that good well into his 30s when, historically speaking, second baseman tend to drop off in their early 30s??

Really? He was top 12 in WARP in the AL last year among all players and 26th in the majors. And he was 26th in AL the year before that recovering from his injury. I'm not saying he's going to be an All-Star for the next 6-7 years, but he projects as one for another 3-4 with more solid years to follow.

Where do you get your 'he wasn't a top 2nd baseman'? I'm all for trading him if it's right, trust me. I'm no BRob lover, but you aren't going to find much better at 2B. Sure, there are the elite, and this guy is the next tier. If you can't find a package for him, you lock him up on a 5 year deal instead of letting him walk for a draft pick. He's too valuable. My opinion.

[OrioleFan55]

I am not the biggest Guthrie supporter but to say he has been mediocre in his first 2 years is absurd.

But I do agree with you about selling him when his value is high and that trading him isn't going to hurt us that much because, how much worse can we be?

Mediocre was probably unfair, but he has been our best pitcher and that is why I think the view is skewed that he is some sort of Ace. I like the guy and think he's a nice piece to the puzzle, but if some team comes along in July looking for an impact starter, we need to be at the table selling Guthrie as their piece and get some return. Again, by the time we are legitimately competing, he'll be 32-33 and asking for some money.

[Sports Guy]

Really? He was top 12 in WARP in the AL last year among all players and 26th in the majors. And he was 26th in AL the year before that recovering from his injury. I'm not saying he's going to be an All-Star for the next 6-7 years, but he projects as one for another 3-4 with more solid years to follow.

Where do you get your 'he wasn't a top 2nd baseman'? I'm all for trading him if it's right, trust me. I'm no BRob lover, but you aren't going to find much better at 2B. Sure, there are the elite, and this guy is the next tier. If you can't find a package for him, you lock him up on a 5 year deal instead of letting him walk for a draft pick. He's too valuable. My opinion.

You said he would be a top 10 second baseman for the next 6-7 years...He hasn't been a top 10 second baseman in the last 6-7 years, so expecting him to do that in his later years is not realistic.

[Sports Guy]

Mediocre was probably unfair, but he has been our best pitcher and that is why I think the view is skewed that he is some sort of Ace. I like the guy and think he's a nice piece to the puzzle, but if some team comes along in July looking for an impact starter, we need to be at the table selling Guthrie as their piece and get some return. Again, by the time we are legitimately competing, he'll be 32-33 and asking for some money.

I perfectly agree that he should be dealt...I just didn't think it was fair to call him mediocre.

I agree with the rest of what you are saying.