At what point do you plan on winning?

[Wind Rider]

I don't think they necessarily plan on winning. Angelos has very successfully run the team to make money. For 2002-2006 he has the third highest earnings in baseball. In 2007 he has dropped to 24th in earnings after the great reliever spending spree. Flanaguette is fired and MacPhail brought in to restore earnings. He's done a great job of reducing payroll (see Bradford for cash, etc.).

OK you don't believe me lets look at rebuilding. In rebuilding you are getting quality young players for positions of need (we have many). I count Jones for CF, period. This years haul, a light hitting shortstop, mediocre starting pitchers, backup catchers, Hinske or Blalock, does nothing to rebuild, but represents a great job of keeping payroll low.

So take a close look at what MacPhail has done, evaluate his moves first in terms of rebuilding, then in terms of reducing payroll. If you're honest it looks more like reducing payroll then rebuilding.

[PaulBako]

On MLBTR someone asked,

"When, if ever, will the orioles be competitive? What will it take to get them there, and do you see Matsuz actually becoming an ace?"

Tim said:

"I'm on board with Matusz, who isnt. They could be competitive in 2010."

[wildcard]

What the O's need to do is be patient and build.

Focus on winning in 2011 and contending in 2012.

Trade BRob for two guys that will be starters or everyday position in 2011-2012.

Trade Huff for one guy ...........................................................

Trade Scott for one guy............................................................

2012

C - Wieters - Arrives 2009

1B - Snyders - Arrives 2011

2B - One guy from the BRob, Huff, Scott trades

SS - One guy from the B Rob, Huff, Scott trades

3B - Rowell - Arrives 2012

LF - Reimold - Arrives mid year 2009

CF- Jones - Arrived 2008

RF - Markakis - Arrived 2006

DH - One guy for B Rob, Huff, Scott trades

Guthrie - Arrived 2007

Tillman - Arrives 2nd Half 2009

Arrieta - Arrives mid year 2010

Matusz - Arrives mid year 2011

5th starter - Draft choice 2009; Arrives mid year 2012

Ray- Arrived 2005

Johnson - Arrived 2008

Sarfate - Arrived 2008

Liz - Arrived 2008

DHernandez - Arrives 2nd half 2009

Albers, Patton, Penn, Mickolio, etc

Draft well each year to add to the depth.

Trade guys like Olson, Bergesen, Baez and Walkermid 2009, etc for more minor league depth.

Take the long view and keep building.

[Why_Knott?]

What the O's need to do is be patient and build.

Focus on winning in 2011 and contending in 2012.

Trade BRob for two guys that will be starters or everyday position in 2011-2012.

Trade Huff for one guy ...........................................................

Trade Scott for one guy............................................................

2012

C - Wieters - Arrives 2009

1B - Snyders - Arrives 2011

2B - One guy from the BRob, Huff, Scott trades

SS - One guy from the B Rob, Huff, Scott trades

3B - Rowell - Arrives 2012

LF - Reimold - Arrives mid year 2009

CF- Jones - Arrived 2008

RF - Markakis - Arrived 2006

DH - One guy for B Rob, Huff, Scott trades

Guthrie - Arrived 2007

Tillman - Arrives 2nd Half 2009

Arrieta - Arrives mid year 2010

Matusz - Arrives mid year 2011

5th starter - Draft choice 2009; Arrives mid year 2012

Ray- Arrived 2005

Johnson - Arrived 2008

Sarfate - Arrived 2008

Liz - Arrived 2008

DHernandez - Arrives 2nd half 2009

Albers, Patton, Penn, Mickolio, etc

Draft well each year to add to the depth.

Trade guys like Olson, Bergesen, Baez and Walkermid 2009, etc for more minor league depth.

Take the long view and keep building.

I just really don't think that team can be competitive, or is a realistic idea. How many successful teams are built almost entirely from within or through trades? I know the Rays were this year, and might be able to sustain success, but it took them ten years to reach that level.

We can throw the Twins and A's in this conversation, but they don't have to compete with the free spending Red Sox and Yankees. We have to supplement some of these players with top free agents to hope to contend, and we cannot count on all of these guys working out for us.

If we do not spend top dollar on free agents (not to mention giving Markakis, Roberts, etc. what they deserve), we will never, ever compete in the AL east.

[Why_Knott?]

And in your scenario, you are counting on all three of the top pitching prospects to have success at the major league level. I am very excited about these guys, but I do not believe that they will all reach their potential. If one reaches their ceiling, I will be happy. If two reach their ceiling I will be thrilled.

[Why_Knott?]

At the same time, with all of the tough luck we have had with our pitching prospects over the last few years, maybe it is our turn to have some of these young men pan out.

[Baltimorebull]

To suggest that we are going to have to go through two more losing seasons and compete in 2011 is crazy. It really should not take that long. Also, why is everyone sold on Markakis, Weiters and Jones as being the centerpieces of the team?

Are you seriously suggesting that those three are the most important part of a major league squad, or that over the next three years none of these three "angels", will get hurt, or be lured away to another franchise?

As has already been noted on here the Tampa model works if you have ten years of las place finishes and top draft choices. but when the time comes to pay those players, and you don't you are on the bottom again.

Far better is the model that brings up a few minor leaguers, and sign a lot of free agents, the Detroit model is not a bad one, nor is the White Sox model.

It looks like we are following the Indians and we saw that while the contended briefly they prety quickly slipped back into mediocrity. (Markakis = Sizemore, Weiters=Martinez, Huff= Haffner), and I would suggest that all of our players are inferior to those. . . .

What am I saying. . . It is not sensable to not take a shot each year. Sign what you need and see what happens. . . there are very few certainties in life and in baseball where the vast majority of minor leaguers never make it to the majors, it is stupid to expect them to make us contenders.

Three months before this season it is too depressing to write off both this season and the next two or three.

[statman]

Honestly, we as a franchise realize we are not going to be good this season...I would rather see the Orioles do nothing (money wise) and fill their holes with players from their farm system than go out and sign guys like Garland, Redding, Kawakami, etc that won't be of any future value to us. If you're not going to spend to win, then don't spend at all. I feel like as long as we keep bringing in mediocre players, that is all our club will be, mediocre. Deal with being scrubs (we've felt the pain for 11 years now) for a while to let our farm system build and splurge money on the big names when we need them (Tex this year IMO). Ive seen us do it in the past with guys like Payton, Ramon, etc...why do we do that? why do we spend millions on mediocre talent? I realize the theory on having "depth" but good teams aka the Red Sox and the Rays get their depth from their farm system. Why would we spend money on any combination of Garland/Kawakami/Redding when we know in 2 years it will consist of Arrieta/Tillman/Matusz? It just makes no sense to me. Use the money to resign BRob and Markakis.

[Baltimorebull]

Because these three could be pipe dreams, Arrieta/Tillman/Matusz. IF they are busts three years from now we are having the same discusssion about the next three highly touted minor leaguers.

Weren't we sure Penn, Hooey, Cabrera etc were going to be fixtures with us. A lot of mediocre talent is better than no talent.

[wildcard]

I just really don't think that team can be competitive, or is a realistic idea. How many successful teams are built almost entirely from within or through trades? I know the Rays were this year, and might be able to sustain success, but it took them ten years to reach that level.

We can throw the Twins and A's in this conversation, but they don't have to compete with the free spending Red Sox and Yankees. We have to supplement some of these players with top free agents to hope to contend, and we cannot count on all of these guys working out for us.

If we do not spend top dollar on free agents (not to mention giving Markakis, Roberts, etc. what they deserve), we will never, ever compete in the AL east.

I agree with you, but the addition of FAs has to be at the right time.

This off season should have shown people that it is not all about money. The Nationals were prepared to go to $200M for Tex. But he wanted to go to a winner. So it didn't matter how much money they or the Orioles threw that Tex. He was not joining a losing team.

So until the O's start to win and look like they are ready to turn the corner, quality free agents will continue to look at the O's like the have "confederate money". The off season of 2011 is probably the right time to invest in high qualify FA to put the O's over the top. If the O's can get to a winning season with their young movement, then is the time to strike in free agency.

You are right that it will not turn out just as I wrote it. Plans rarely do. They need adjusting along the way. What if Montanez turns out to be a great DH or the O's pick up another Guthrie on the waiver wire or Butler or Beato or Erbe turn out to be high quaility pitchers.

At the same time some players and prospects will get hurt and some will not develop. This could be the plan for this offseason. It will need to be adjusting along the way.

The point is to get a group of talent players it takes patience. The O's can't spend draft choices on short term fixes. That has killed them in the past. When they swap a draft choice for a FA they better get a player that will have an impact on the team for 4 to 6 years because they will be giving up a 1st or 2nd rounder that has the potential be give them 6 years with many of those years being cheap.

[wildcard]

Because these three could be pipe dreams, Arrieta/Tillman/Matusz. IF they are busts three years from now we are having the same discusssion about the next three highly touted minor leaguers.

Weren't we sure Penn, Hooey, Cabrera etc were going to be fixtures with us. A lot of mediocre talent is better than no talent.

That is why MacPhail is inventorying Guthrie, Tillman, Arrieta, Matusz, Erbe, D Hernandez, Bergesen, Berken, Beato, Penn, Olson, Liz, Albers, Patton, Butler and more to come in future drafts. Some will fail and others will surprise. The more quality prospects the better the chance that 5 quality starters are developed.

[RShack]

First of all, yes, i don't think it bothers you to watch them lose all the time. I think you would prefer them to win but I also think you would rather keep the team largely in tact because you like certain guys and you are fine with the idea of just waiting for a while.

SG, it's completely goofy for you to think you know better than I do how sick I am of watching them lose.

[stuff deleted about AM's plan]

Ultimately, I think the plan has a lot of merits for the long term(ie 5 years from now and beyond)..But you have to think about the next 5 years as well.

I pretty much agree with what you said up to here.

The only way we are going to close the gap is by obtaining top level talent and the only way we are going to do that is in trades and free agency and free agency isn't happening.

So, it comes back to trades. They have got to get a big influx of talent in here...Denying that is just sheer idiocy.

Let's remember something Rshack...A big reason the Orioles are in better shape today vs November of last year is because of TRADES!

I've got nothing against trades. I think trades are a perfectly valid tool that should be used as appropriate.

We disagree about what using them appropriately means.

Let's pretend the following 4 things are true:

• AM is not only focused on MiL talent but also on fixing the MiL org. Let's pretend he's making the player-development aspects of the org better, such that we get more actual ML benefit out of the raw MiL talent. (I don't know if this is really true, we never hear squat about it, but I sure hope it's true. If it's not true, then I think we're screwed.)
• There's significant P-talent in the MiL system (plus a couple position players but probably not enough of them).
• At some point in the not-too-distant future, the ML club will see significant benefit from some of that home-grown P-talent.
• Wieters is gonna show up fairly soon and prove to be Somebody.

If we pretend all of the above are true, then what does he need to acquire talent for? IMO, it boils down to:

• Short-term pitching needs.
• Longer-term position player needs.
• The normal constant influx you always need, just to keep the pipeline from drying up.

Given this, I don't buy that he needs to make tons of trades. Right now, the main short-term problem is pitching, and there's a lot of that in the pipeline. I don't think it makes sense for him to be trading for "top level pitchers", and I bet he won't. I think he is likely to acquire some pitching that won't break the bank or require huge long-term commitments, with the goal of permitting the team to be getting progressively better until more of the home-grown P's are ready to show up. Whether he gets the short-term pitching help via trades or FA doesn't matter much to me. Either way, I expect it will be low-drama moves that produce small headlines. I don't think he's gonna be getting "top level" pitching that way. I think the way he's gonna get "top level" pitching is to grow it.

As for non-P talent, I don't I buy that he needs to be "aggressive" and go making lots of trades to bring in large quantities of "top level talent". Right now, if the pitching was fine, this team would be better-than-OK with the positional talent it has. The OF is basically fine (he pretty much fixed that last year), C should be OK real soon now, and at the moment the right-side of the IF is fine with Huff at 1B. The obvious needs are SS and 3B, but right now they're OK (not great, but OK). They do need fixing, but it's not an urgent calamity right now. Most really good teams are not great everywhere, and we don't need studs at every position to be a serious team. So, while there are positional needs, it's not like we need a huge influx or an immediate influx of talent, unless guys either leave or get hurt badly.

I also don't buy that AM has many options that would permit him to bring in "top level talent". Face it, he doesn't have another Erik to trade. Of the trade options people frequently discuss, I don't see him getting "top level" return for those guys, unless you're talking about collecting iffy prospects who may or may not turn out to be worth much over the next couple years.

So, all in all, I agree that trades can have positive value, but I don't see how it makes any sense to expect AM to go charging around, aggressively making lots of trades. What he mainly needs to do is balance the long-term view with the short term need to have a team that makes progress and gets better each year. I don't see any way that it's truly viable that he would do what some people suggest, which is to trade anybody who is 30 and decent for "prospects". Why? Because whenever the team gets competitive, it will require a core of established 30-something guys with an appropriate mix of younger guys. Trading all the decent 30-yr-olds for prospects will just delay when that day comes. It's kicking the can down the road in a way that will further destroy the fanbase and further disillusion the good young talent we have now.

The thing I think some of the more trade-happy folks miss is that AM has to do a balancing act. On the one hand, he does need to focus on the future re: fixing the franchise so it not only gets good but stays good. At the same time, he needs to have both fans and the current good young players see that progress is being made in the near term. I agree that trades can and should be part of that, but it makes zero sense to me that the franchise will be best served by making lots of them. I also think you're dramatically overestimating how many "top level" players need to be brought in from the outside. It's always good to have fresh good talent, but AM is not in a position where he can go acquiring a ton of it, nor does he need to. Should he be targeting the acquisition of good young talent via trade? Sure. But should he be doing this aggressively, spending most of the mostly-baked ML talent we have now in the process? I don't think so. I think that would be using trades inappropriately, and would do as much harm as good, and probably more harm than good.

Bottom line: Some folks here use the phrase "true rebuild". I think that's exactly what AM is in the process of doing (but not in the way that some folks mean when they use that phrase). After a quarter-century of poor management, a true rebuild is exactly what the franchise requires to be good again. Sadly, doing that takes time. Making lots of trades can't change that one basic fact.

[mweb]

I would put Roberts, Guthrie(I suggested putting him on the market months ago), Huff, Sherrill, Scott, and Mora on the market. That'd doesn't mean I'm hell bent on trading all of them, it depends on the offers of course, so there's a good chance I'd keep about half of them. Getting picks back for some of next years free agents wouldn't be the worst thing.

Other than that, I would look to sign some undervalued free agents, for instance guys like Dunn, Bradley, Burrell, Penny, Pedro, and Juan Cruz this year. Then these guys can be used to bring in future talent either by trading them or getting picks back. They would also have the ability to help a contending team in 2-4 years if that seems to be the better option.

Then, as the team is on the verge of contending, look to fill the holes with top free agents.

[Sports Guy]

SG, it's completely goofy for you to think you know better than I do how sick I am of watching them lose.

I pretty much agree with what you said up to here.

I've got nothing against trades. I think trades are a perfectly valid tool that should be used as appropriate.

We disagree about what using them appropriately means.

Let's pretend the following 4 things are true:

• AM is not only focused on MiL talent but also on fixing the MiL org. Let's pretend he's making the player-development aspects of the org better, such that we get more actual ML benefit out of the raw MiL talent. (I don't know if this is really true, we never hear squat about it, but I sure hope it's true. If it's not true, then I think we're screwed.)
• There's significant P-talent in the MiL system (plus a couple position players but probably not enough of them).
• At some point in the not-too-distant future, the ML club will see significant benefit from some of that home-grown P-talent.
• Wieters is gonna show up fairly soon and prove to be Somebody.

If we pretend all of the above are true, then what does he need to acquire talent for? IMO, it boils down to:

• Short-term pitching needs.
• Longer-term position player needs.
• The normal constant influx you always need, just to keep the pipeline from drying up.

Given this, I don't buy that he needs to make tons of trades. Right now, the main short-term problem is pitching, and there's a lot of that in the pipeline. I don't think it makes sense for him to be trading for "top level pitchers", and I bet he won't. I think he is likely to acquire some pitching that won't break the bank or require huge long-term commitments, with the goal of permitting the team to be getting progressively better until more of the home-grown P's are ready to show up. Whether he gets the short-term pitching help via trades or FA doesn't matter much to me. Either way, I expect it will be low-drama moves that produce small headlines. I don't think he's gonna be getting "top level" pitching that way. I think the way he's gonna get "top level" pitching is to grow it.

As for non-P talent, I don't I buy that he needs to be "aggressive" and go making lots of trades to bring in large quantities of "top level talent". Right now, if the pitching was fine, this team would be better-than-OK with the positional talent it has. The OF is basically fine (he pretty much fixed that last year), C should be OK real soon now, and at the moment the right-side of the IF is fine with Huff at 1B. The obvious needs are SS and 3B, but right now they're OK (not great, but OK). They do need fixing, but it's not an urgent calamity right now. Most really good teams are not great everywhere, and we don't need studs at every position to be a serious team. So, while there are positional needs, it's not like we need a huge influx or an immediate influx of talent, unless guys either leave or get hurt badly.

I also don't buy that AM has many options that would permit him to bring in "top level talent". Face it, he doesn't have another Erik to trade. Of the trade options people frequently discuss, I don't see him getting "top level" return for those guys, unless you're talking about collecting iffy prospects who may or may not turn out to be worth much over the next couple years.

So, all in all, I agree that trades can have positive value, but I don't see how it makes any sense to expect AM to go charging around, aggressively making lots of trades. What he mainly needs to do is balance the long-term view with the short term need to have a team that makes progress and gets better each year. I don't see any way that it's truly viable that he would do what some people suggest, which is to trade anybody who is 30 and decent for "prospects". Why? Because whenever the team gets competitive, it will require a core of established 30-something guys with an appropriate mix of younger guys. Trading all the decent 30-yr-olds for prospects will just delay when that day comes. It's kicking the can down the road in a way that will further destroy the fanbase and further disillusion the good young talent we have now.

The thing I think some of the more trade-happy folks miss is that AM has to do a balancing act. On the one hand, he does need to focus on the future re: fixing the franchise so it not only gets good but stays good. At the same time, he needs to have both fans and the current good young players see that progress is being made in the near term. I agree that trades can and should be part of that, but it makes zero sense to me that the franchise will be best served by making lots of them. I also think you're dramatically overestimating how many "top level" players need to be brought in from the outside. It's always good to have fresh good talent, but AM is not in a position where he can go acquiring a ton of it, nor does he need to. Should he be targeting the acquisition of good young talent via trade? Sure. But should he be doing this aggressively, spending most of the mostly-baked ML talent we have now in the process? I don't think so. I think that would be using trades inappropriately, and would do as much harm as good, and probably more harm than good.

Bottom line: Some folks here use the phrase "true rebuild". I think that's exactly what AM is in the process of doing (but not in the way that some folks mean when they use that phrase). After a quarter-century of poor management, a true rebuild is exactly what the franchise requires to be good again. Sadly, doing that takes time. Making lots of trades can't change that one basic fact.

After reading this, this is what I take from it:

1) You think the Orioles are close, in terms of top level talent, to the rest of the league...You know they need experience and to prove they can play with the big boys but you think the talent is there and we don't need much more.

2) You are basically banking on what we have to all hit.

I think these are 2 of your largest ideas...You feel that since those 2 things are true, that AM is addressing the near future, as those guys will be the reasons we win.

Suffice it to say, I think you are kidding yourself if you think we have even remotely enough talent and depth right now....You can't assume what we have will all be fine.

What happens if Tillman gets hurt and Arrieta ends up a bullpen pitcher?

We need a lot more...Aftr the top 4 guys, our system really drops off...I like the upside of a lot of our players but really, none of these guys look like they will be able to stay as a starter except for maybe Spoone but he has to prove his health is ok...same with Patton.

Right now, we have no realistic chance to contend any time soon....Maybe if some miracle happened we could but of course, that has been the mantra of the Orioles for the last 11 years.

Talent talent talent...Without it, we aren't going to have any chance against the big boys.

We have got to make trades...We have got to take risks on some high reward type guys...Guys like Pie, Hill...for example.

Now, realistically, we probably only have 4 guys that can bring us back some talent:

Luke Scott- He likely can only bring us back talent via the Cubs and that talent isn't can't miss talent but still, talent we should take a risk on.

BRob- Lots of possibilities with Roberts...I would think he can get back 1 top guy, 1 very solid guy and perhaps another decent prospect or 2.

Guthrie- You could argue that his trade value is either the best on the team amongst the vets/older players or that his value isn't near enough to trade him...I would shocked if AM was even remotely thinking about shopping him...This I have a problem with.

Sherrill- I think he could net us a solid young player....perhaps even better to go with Guthrie or BRob to improve a package

We also have some depth with guys like JJ Johnson, Liz, Olson, etc...Guys that we could add into a trade to give us a better return.

End of the day, it is all about inventory...AM has said this and used that word...Their are only a few ways to acquire inventory but of all those ways, the only ways that can improve us short and long term are trades and FA...FA is basically out...So, we need to make trades.

Trading guys doesn't deviate from any plan...It enhances it...It makes it better because it gives AM more inventory to work with.

[clapdiddy]

Trading guys doesn't deviate from any plan...It enhances it...It makes it better because it gives AM more inventory to work with.

Agreed. Now, when do we get this train started?

It amazes me that we're possibly getting into a "bidding war" for a guy like Redding, and we're not focusing on dealing off Roberts or Guthrie or whomever.

I'd rather we keep Waters in the rotation at the (or close to) the league minimum instead of going after guys like Redding or Looper. Why pay millions for these guys when you can get near the same production from guys making far less?

If the idea is for us to acquire "place holders", make them CHEAP "place holders". Don't spend money on mediocre talent when you've got guys like Waters or Bass or others to do this. I'd have no problem going after someone like Pavano or Colon on a cheap incentive-based deal as well. These are the types we should be looking at, because we could possibly move them if they do wind up pitching well.