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At what point do you plan on winning?


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Let's be realistic here...We have the chance to contend in 2010....2011 is probably more realistic here.

However, we have to bridge the gap, in a major way, in the talent difference between us and the rest of the top AL teams.

I started a poll about trading Guthrie and, predictably so, many would keep him.

And that gets me to the point of this thread...what are you guys actually willing to do to cut that talent gap?

We all know about the need to improve Int'l signings, draft well, sign picks, develop better, etc....I am not talking about that stuff. We all know and agree that all of this needs to happen, so it really doesn't need to be discussed here.

I am not talking about the stuff that will likely not start helping for another 4 or 5 years...I am talking about over the next 3 years or so.

This team has to start making serious strides on the major league level....but how?

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Let's be realistic here...We have the chance to contend in 2010....2011 is probably more realistic here.

However, we have to bridge the gap, in a major way, in the talent difference between us and the rest of the top AL teams.

I started a poll about trading Guthrie and, predictably so, many would keep him.

And that gets me to the point of this thread...what are you guys actually willing to do to cut that talent gap?

We all know about the need to improve Int'l signings, draft well, sign picks, develop better, etc....I am not talking about that stuff. We all know and agree that all of this needs to happen, so it really doesn't need to be discussed here.

I am not talking about the stuff that will likely not start helping for another 4 or 5 years...I am talking about over the next 3 years or so.

This team has to start making serious strides on the major league level....but how?

Make a splash by signing next year's top free agent. Package some of our lesser minor league prospects together for one good player. Send a group of skilled assassins (preferably ninjas) after Angelos. All of these seem to be good.

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This team has to start making serious strides on the major league level....but how?

Really interesting and good question. Personally, I was of the persuasion in SG's other thread that believes trading guthrie is a good idea. Now, that belief is based on the idea that we get excellent value for him. If the market were such that three legitimate ML ready prospects could not be had for Guthrie, then by all means keep him. Otherwise, I deal him and hope to get one bat and two arms.

Also, I hate to say trade Roberts, but that has to be done as well IMO. Again, I look at this the same way AM does: inventory. The deeper our inventory of young players that appear to be on the cusp of making an impact at the ML level, the more likely that enough will stick to create a contender. And Roberts could net at least two or three solid prospects (right??).

I would do my darndest to sign Dunn. I think that he could be an upgrade for Huff, whom I look to trade during the course of the season. I have to think that we can get at least one or two prospects for Huff from a contender before the trade deadline.

Also, I hope that Sherrill bounces back and finds early success and look to trade him at some point in the next year or two for more young guys. Same goes for Scott. Let Reimold struggle in the majors just to see what we have in the kid.

In sum, my plan basically calls for LOOKING to trade most anybody with value (Besides, Wieters, Jones and Markakis) for prospects. If we can net eight to ten more young guys over the next year or two, then some of those guys along with the prospects within our system will hopefully develop to help create a contender. Supplementing the young guys with one or two HIGH QUALITY free agent signings for both bats and arms over the next three years will make a contender. But I save my money for guys who will bring considerable value to the O's.

I know this plan is not specific at all with names, but it's the premise of trading our players of value for high caliber prospects. WHoever they are, wherever they play. As long as the position prospects can hit and the pitchers can throw strikes and get guys out, we'll worry about specifics of position once we have nine or ten guys that can hit pitching, and we have at least 15 pitchers that can get major leaguers out.

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Really interesting and good question. Personally, I was of the persuasion in SG's other thread that believes trading guthrie is a good idea. Now, that belief is based on the idea that we get excellent value for him. If the market were such that three legitimate ML ready prospects could not be had for Guthrie, then by all means keep him. Otherwise, I deal him and hope to get one bat and two arms.

Also, I hate to say trade Roberts, but that has to be done as well IMO. Again, I look at this the same way AM does: inventory. The deeper our inventory of young players that appear to be on the cusp of making an impact at the ML level, the more likely that enough will stick to create a contender. And Roberts could net at least two or three solid prospects (right??).

I would do my darndest to sign Dunn. I think that he could be an upgrade for Huff, whom I look to trade during the course of the season. I have to think that we can get at least one or two prospects for Huff from a contender before the trade deadline.

Also, I hope that Sherrill bounces back and finds early success and look to trade him at some point in the next year or two for more young guys. Same goes for Scott. Let Reimold struggle in the majors just to see what we have in the kid.

In sum, my plan basically calls for LOOKING to trade most anybody with value (Besides, Wieters, Jones and Markakis) for prospects. If we can net eight to ten more young guys over the next year or two, then some of those guys along with the prospects within our system will hopefully develop to help create a contender. Supplementing the young guys with one or two HIGH QUALITY free agent signings for both bats and arms over the next three years will make a contender. But I save my money for guys who will bring considerable value to the O's.

I know this plan is not specific at all with names, but it's the premise of trading our players of value for high caliber prospects. WHoever they are, wherever they play. As long as the position prospects can hit and the pitchers can throw strikes and get guys out, we'll worry about specifics of position once we have nine or ten guys that can hit pitching, and we have at least 15 pitchers that can get major leaguers out.

I agree completely. We need to more or less clean house. Stock pile young talent and let them mesh together like Tampa. Also, I always feel like there is that one guy who is going to be a difference maker once he gets a change of scenery. Like Carlos Pena and Hamilton. If the Os could find someone like that it would save us the money from spending everything on a top FA.

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Make a splash by signing next year's top free agent. Package some of our lesser minor league prospects together for one good player. Send a group of skilled assassins (preferably ninjas) after Angelos. All of these seem to be good.

If we couldn't sign this year's top free agent and he grew up 15 minutes away from Baltimore, what hope do we have to sign next year's top guy?

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Really interesting and good question. Personally, I was of the persuasion in SG's other thread that believes trading guthrie is a good idea. Now, that belief is based on the idea that we get excellent value for him. If the market were such that three legitimate ML ready prospects could not be had for Guthrie, then by all means keep him. Otherwise, I deal him and hope to get one bat and two arms.

Also, I hate to say trade Roberts, but that has to be done as well IMO. Again, I look at this the same way AM does: inventory. The deeper our inventory of young players that appear to be on the cusp of making an impact at the ML level, the more likely that enough will stick to create a contender. And Roberts could net at least two or three solid prospects (right??).

I would do my darndest to sign Dunn. I think that he could be an upgrade for Huff, whom I look to trade during the course of the season. I have to think that we can get at least one or two prospects for Huff from a contender before the trade deadline.

Also, I hope that Sherrill bounces back and finds early success and look to trade him at some point in the next year or two for more young guys. Same goes for Scott. Let Reimold struggle in the majors just to see what we have in the kid.

In sum, my plan basically calls for LOOKING to trade most anybody with value (Besides, Wieters, Jones and Markakis) for prospects. If we can net eight to ten more young guys over the next year or two, then some of those guys along with the prospects within our system will hopefully develop to help create a contender. Supplementing the young guys with one or two HIGH QUALITY free agent signings for both bats and arms over the next three years will make a contender. But I save my money for guys who will bring considerable value to the O's.

I know this plan is not specific at all with names, but it's the premise of trading our players of value for high caliber prospects. WHoever they are, wherever they play. As long as the position prospects can hit and the pitchers can throw strikes and get guys out, we'll worry about specifics of position once we have nine or ten guys that can hit pitching, and we have at least 15 pitchers that can get major leaguers out.

I don't have confidence that we can get much for Guthrie and Huff. Roberts should be out of here yesterday if we weren't going to sign Tex. Now that we missed out on Tex I'm in favor of gutting the team. MacPhail talks about stockpiling pitching, but we have NO good position prospects. We need to take that seriously.

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I don't think there is any possible way to do it without trading BRob, Huff, Sherrill, Scott, AND Guthrie. As others have said, Guthrie has to bring in a huge haul due his cost. I don't think AM will be thinking like this because he doesn't have a pitching staff and his best starter is very cheap. Guthrie nets us the best return of anyone on our roster not named Markakis, though.

I still don't see contention until 2012. I just don't think young pitchers are going to get there feet under them in the ALEast in a year or two.

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I don't think there is any possible way to do it without trading BRob, Huff, Sherrill, Scott, AND Guthrie. As others have said, Guthrie has to bring in a huge haul due his cost. I don't think AM will be thinking like this because he doesn't have a pitching staff and his best starter is very cheap. Guthrie nets us the best return of anyone on our roster not named Markakis, though.

I still don't see contention until 2012. I just don't think young pitchers are going to get there feet under them in the ALEast in a year or two.

The problem I see is that Guthrie doesnt get a lot of respect around baseball for how well he has pitched. I don't see another GM being willing to give up a lot for him. He's not a marquee talent. Maybe if he improves this coming year.

For example, think of an equivalent pitcher to him, who is also flying under the radar, and consider whether you'd give up three of our better prospects to get him.

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Make a splash by signing next year's top free agent. Package some of our lesser minor league prospects together for one good player. Send a group of skilled assassins (preferably ninjas) after Angelos. All of these seem to be good.

Next year's free agency class is known to be very very weak. Which is one of the reasons why Yankees are going all out this off-season. Only person worth signing as a "splash" is Matt Holliday and others are poor compared to this year's class.

Catchers

Rod Barajas (34)

Jamie Burke (38)

Kevin Cash (32)

Ramon Castro (34)

Ramon Hernandez (34) - $8.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Jason Kendall (36)

Jason LaRue (36)

Victor Martinez (31) - $7MM club option with a $250K buyout

Bengie Molina (35)

Jose Molina (35)

Miguel Olivo (31) - $3.25MM mutual option

Mike Redmond (39)

Brian Schneider (33)

Yorvit Torrealba (31) - $4MM mutual option with a $500K buyout

First basemen

Russell Branyan (34)

Frank Catalanotto (36)

Carlos Delgado (38)

Ross Gload (34) - $2.6MM club option

Nick Johnson (31)

Adam LaRoche (30)

Chad Tracy (30)

Dmitri Young (36) -$6MM option vests with 500 PAs in '09

Second basemen

Ronnie Belliard (35)

Jamey Carroll (36)

Mark DeRosa (35)

Akinori Iwamura (31) - $4.25MM club option with a $250K buyout

Adam Kennedy (34)

Felipe Lopez (30)

Mark Loretta (38)

Placido Polanco (34)

Brian Roberts (32)

Freddy Sanchez (32) - $8MM club option with a $600K buyout

Shortstops

Bobby Crosby (30)

Adam Everett (33)

Alex Gonzalez (32) - $6MM mutual option with a $500K buyout

Khalil Greene (30)

John McDonald (35)

Marco Scutaro (34)

Miguel Tejada (36)

Jack Wilson (32) - $8.4MM club option with a $600K buyout

Third basemen

Adrian Beltre (31)

Geoff Blum (37)

Aaron Boone (37)

Pedro Feliz (35) - $5MM club option with a $500K buyout

Chone Figgins (32)

Troy Glaus (33)

Chipper Jones (38)

Mike Lamb (34)

Melvin Mora (38) - club option

Robb Quinlan (33)

Left fielders

Marlon Anderson (36)

Jason Bay (31)

Carl Crawford (28) - $10MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout

Johnny Damon (36)

David Dellucci (36)

Matt Holliday (30)

Omar Infante (28)

Greg Norton (37)

Wily Mo Pena (28)

Dave Roberts (38)

Fernando Tatis (35)

Center fielders

Rick Ankiel (30)

Marlon Byrd (32)

Mike Cameron (37)

Endy Chavez (32)

Coco Crisp (30) - $8MM club option with a $500K buyout

Darin Erstad (36)

Ryan Freel (34)

Reed Johnson (33)

Andruw Jones (33)

Corey Patterson (30)

Right fielders

Jermaine Dye (36) - $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Brian Giles (39)

Vladimir Guerrero (34)

Geoff Jenkins (35) - $7.5MM mutual option with a $1.25MM buyout

Austin Kearns (30) - $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Jason Michaels (34)

Xavier Nady (31)

Magglio Ordonez (36) - $15MM club/vesting option with a $3MM buyout

Jayson Werth (31)

Randy Winn (36)

Designated hitters

Hank Blalock (29)

Aubrey Huff (33)

Hideki Matsui (36)

Gary Sheffield (41)

Matt Stairs (42)

Jim Thome (39)

Starting pitchers

Brandon Backe (32)

Danys Baez (32)

Miguel Batista (39)

Josh Beckett (30) - $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Erik Bedard (31)

Daniel Cabrera (29)

Chris Capuano (31)

Jose Contreras (38)

Doug Davis (34)

Justin Duchscherer (32)

Adam Eaton (32) - $9MM mutual option with a $500K buyout

Mike Hampton (37)

Rich Harden (28)

Tim Hudson (34) - $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

John Lackey (31)

Cliff Lee (31) - $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Jason Marquis (31)

Kevin Millwood (35) - Rangers can decline $12MM salary for '10 unless he reaches 180 innings in '09

Brian Moehler (38) - mutual option

Brett Myers (29)

Vicente Padilla (32) - $12MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout

Chan Ho Park (37)

Joel Pineiro (31)

Horacio Ramirez (30)

Jason Schmidt (37)

Tim Wakefield (43) - perpetual $4MM club option

Jarrod Washburn (35)

Brandon Webb (31) - $8.5MM club option with a $500K+ buyout

Todd Wellemeyer (31)

Closers

Mike Gonzalez (32)

Troy Percival (40)

J.J. Putz (33) - $8.6MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Fernando Rodney (33)

Rafael Soriano (30)

Jose Valverde (30)

Billy Wagner (38) - $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Right-handed relievers

Joaquin Benoit (32)

Rafael Betancourt (35) - $5.4MM club option

Chad Bradford (35)

Doug Brocail (43) - $2.85MM club option with a $250K buyout

Octavio Dotel (36)

Kelvim Escobar (33)

Ryan Franklin (37) - $2.75MM club option with a $250K buyout

Kevin Gregg (32)

LaTroy Hawkins (37)

Clay Hensley (30)

Matt Herges (40)

Bob Howry (36)

Jorge Julio (31)

Masahide Kobayashi (36) - $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout

Ryan Madson (29)

Gary Majewski (30)

Duaner Sanchez (30)

Luis Vizcaino (35) - $4MM club option with a $500K buyout

David Weathers (40)

Yasuhiko Yabuta (37) - $4MM club option with a $500K buyout

Left-handed relievers

Alan Embree (40) - $3MM club option with a $250K buyout

Scott Eyre (38)

John Grabow (31)

Ron Mahay (39)

Trever Miller (37)

Hideki Okajima (34)

Darren Oliver (39)

Glendon Rusch (35)

Scott Schoeneweis (36)

Matt Thornton (33) - $2.25MM club option with a $250K buyout

Jamie Walker (38)

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Again, we hear so much about stockpiling pitching, and that's clearly not a stupid idea, but looking at that free agent list, the starting pitchers (barring extensions) are clearly the deepest position available next year. Lot of 28-32 year olds there that I'd love to take a chance on.

Hitters, not so much.

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Let's be realistic here...We have the chance to contend in 2010....2011 is probably more realistic here.

However, we have to bridge the gap, in a major way, in the talent difference between us and the rest of the top AL teams.

I started a poll about trading Guthrie and, predictably so, many would keep him.

And that gets me to the point of this thread...what are you guys actually willing to do to cut that talent gap?

We all know about the need to improve Int'l signings, draft well, sign picks, develop better, etc....I am not talking about that stuff. We all know and agree that all of this needs to happen, so it really doesn't need to be discussed here.

I am not talking about the stuff that will likely not start helping for another 4 or 5 years...I am talking about over the next 3 years or so.

This team has to start making serious strides on the major league level....but how?

Your post has lead to what I think is the fallacy of our competing in 2010. We talk about Reimold. Weiters, Matusz. Tillman, Arrietta, Erbe, Snyder Rowell etc. all arriving between 2010 and 2011 which is great for a farm system that was awful for 15 years and then became worse under Syd Thrift.

The young talent is exciting but comes with no guarrantees. As a whole, we look at our prospects and other teams prospects(that some think we can magically trade for) check their minor league numbers and make the assumption they are going to be far better players than Huff, Mora, Scott, Roberts etc.

Those guys, with the exception of Huff will all be gone at the end of this year and will be replaced by the young guys. We point to Tampa Bay and say look what their young guys did, but that is not a 2 year rebuild. That took 10 years.

I would trade Guthrie, Roberts, Huff or any one for the right trade but you must max out quality back and at the same time understand that a team full of fresh major leaguers are not going to be ready to beat the Yankeees or the Red Sox in 2010 or 2011.

Bottom line, I think we will have to resign some of our 30 year old players plus some quality free agents to augment the graduating minor leaguers but to me 2012 seems to be the most optimistic hope to me.

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Make a splash by signing next year's top free agent. Package some of our lesser minor league prospects together for one good player. Send a group of skilled assassins (preferably ninjas) after Angelos. All of these seem to be good.

As long as MacPhail's the GM, I doubt we'll ever sign a Type A free agent. For better or for worse, we're following the Rays model and hoping lightning can be caught in a bottle twice.

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http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=73967

Sorry Chief, but these threads are just too similar to me. No pilthy comebacks about "trying to keep up" or anything, please.

As far as the future goes, I think we should be looking to trade Huff, Roberts, Mora (if he'll accept it) Sherrill and Ray if he's having a good season too. You know, the same stuff we always talk about on here. Huff to the Angels or Twins, Roberts to the Cubs, Indians or Dodgers, Guthrie to the Brewers for Weeks, yakka yakka yakka, targeting Gamel as the hot new 1B prospect we'd love to have but don't even know if he's being shopped....

We should make those trades.

Will we? Hell if I know. So I don't think I know at what point we plan on winning. Nor do I think anyone else knows.

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We gut everything that other teams see as valuable to semi-valuable without unloading what we see as part of our core.

I'd shop Guthrie, Ray, Sherrill, Scott, Huff and Mora for sure. As long as they bring back something that AM thinks can contribute in 2 years or so, pull the trigger.

I'd also trade Roberts for the right package, but I'd play both sides and try to sign this guy to an extension. He's got another 6-7 top 10 2B seasons in him, so a package worth that or extend him.

And obviously listen to all offers on our minor leaguers who we don't deem as everyday players. Doesn't mean unload them, but see what other teams value them as and make a decision from there.

I truly think we are Wieters, Matusz, Tillman and a one or two guys who don't project now but develop into starters away along with 2-3 big free agent signings away from competing. Teixeira was one of those signings obviously.

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